Final stop for the local heroine?

New York-born Emma Navarro reached the semi-finals of a Grand Slam tournament for the first time in her career to great acclaim. However, it is probably only wishful thinking that Emma Navarro’s hopes of reaching the final at Flushing Meadows against Aryna Sabalenka will come true.

Sabalenka has already made history. After not giving a completely overwhelmed Qinwen Zheng the slightest chance in the quarter-finals (6:1 and 6:2), she has reached the semi-finals of the US Open for the fourth time in a row. The only thing she has not yet won is the American hard court Grand Slam. Nevertheless, the forecast for Emma Navarro against Aryna Sabalenka is clearly for her second final in a row

For Emma Navarro, meanwhile, it is the very first Grand Slam semi-final of her career in a year of steady improvement. And, curiously enough, in her birthplace, where she had previously only made two appearances in the women’s singles, always failing in the first round. It is clear that the New Yorker will have to have an absolute cream day to beat the Belarusian. Tip 2 therefore seems to have no alternative.

Our betting recommendation is a handicap win for Aryna Sabalenka, who has always won every single match on her way to the semi-finals by at least five games. Alternatively, the Happybet app offers slightly lower odds of 1.77 on her 2:0 victory.

Emma Navarro – Statistics & current form

Current position in the world rankings: 12
Position in the seeding list: 13

The 23-year-old American Emma Navarro is currently experiencing her sustained breakthrough on the WTA Tour in 2024. Right at the start of the year, she secured her very first singles title in the most important women’s division of tennis at a WTA 250 in Hobart, Australia.

This was followed by a steady improvement at Grand Slam level. At the Australian Open, the native New Yorker reached the third round of a Grand Slam for the first time. She reached the round of 16 at the French Open, the quarter-finals at Wimbledon and now at least the semi-finals at the US Open.

Navarro with an impressive annual record

The daughter of businessman and millionaire Ben Navarro not only defeated defending champion Coco Gauff 2:1, but also eliminated Paula Badosa 2:0 in the quarter-finals. It was her 50th singles win in the 2024 calendar year – compared to 19 defeats.

The New Yorker also shone with nerves of steel and comeback qualities. After winning the first set 6:2, Emma Navarro was already trailing 1:5 in the second round of the quarter-finals before winning six games in a row and turning the set around to win 7:5. The very first match point, in which she unpacked a cheeky stop ball, was successful

Is Emma Navarro making the most of the home advantage?

While the odds are clearly against Emma Navarro against Aryna Sabalenka, the local heroine was moved on court after her victory and thanked her father, who was sitting in the stands, for his support since her earliest childhood. But at least the hearts of the fans are likely to fly to the New York native, who has never won a women’s singles match at Flushing Meadows in the run-up to this year’s US Open.

And after all, the “home advantage” already made the difference once before in March, when Emma Navarro defeated the strong Belarusian 2:1 on American hard court at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells…

Aryna Sabalenka – statistics & current form

Current position in the world rankings: 2
Position in the seeding list: 2

The 26-year-old Belarusian Aryna Sabalenka was considered by almost all experts to be the clear favorite to win this year’s US Open ahead of world number one Iga Swiatek.

She did have to admit defeat to local hero Coco Gauff in the final a year ago. However, at least at the Australian Open, the player from Minsk has already won two Grand Slam trophies on her preferred hard court, which is also played on at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.

Aryna Sabalenka with a strong series at the US Open

The Belarusian lived up to her role as favorite in an extremely impressive manner. Sabalenka literally rolled over all four of her opponents, winning every single match on her way to her fourth US Open semi-final in a row by at least five games.

Most recently, she demolished a chance-less Qinweg Zheng 6:1 and 6:2 in just 74 minutes by every trick in the book. It is therefore safe to assume that Emma Navarro will also be able to secure a comfortable win against Aryna Sabalenka in this semi-final against the up-and-coming New Yorker.

Sabalenka leaves little to be desired with her own service

It has to be said that the crowd was definitely a factor in the grand final a year ago. However, if the world number two can even come close to matching her performance in the quarter-finals, there should be little room for surprises.

Sabalenka got her first serve into the opponent’s court 71 percent of the time, scored points 73 percent of the time and also averaged over 50 percent (53) of the 17 times she needed her second serve. Once again, she did not concede a single service game, which was ultimately the key to her commanding 2:0 victory.

Emma Navarro – Aryna Sabalenka head-to-head / H2H result

Head to head: 1:1

The two players have faced each other twice so far and both matches date back to 2024. While Navarro defeated the Belarusian 2:1 on hard court at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells in March, Sabalenka recorded a smooth and commanding 2:0 victory in the round of 16 of the French Open, dropping just five games (6:2 and 6:3)

Emma Navarro – Aryna Sabalenka tip

With Emma Navarro against Aryna Sabalenka, the odds of the best bookmakers are clearly and unmistakably in favor of the Belarusian, who sniffed at the title a year ago but was beaten by Coco Gauff in the final. It was Gauff who was beaten in the round of 16 by Emma Navarro, who is among the top four players at a Grand Slam tournament for the first time in her career. However, Sabalenka had already rolled over the New Yorker in extremely dominant fashion at the French Open with a 2:0 (6:2 and 6:3) victory

So there seems to be no alternative to Emma Navarro against Aryna Sabalenka and the Belarusian is predicted to reach the final. Since we don’t see any value in an underdog bet, the price question is how the bet on the world number two can be played optimally