Will Halep’s experience and variability prevail once again?

The sport of tennis sometimes writes its own stories. Although Simona Halep last served at Wimbledon in 2019, three years later she actually has the opportunity to defend her own title from back then. Because tennis’ most prestigious tournament famously fell victim to the pandemic in 2020 and Romania had to cancel 2021 due to injury, this once-in-a-lifetime chance now presents itself.

The former world number one still has two hurdles to clear. In the semi-finals, Elena Rybakina from Kazakhstan awaits an opponent with an extremely strong serve, who is playing the best two weeks of her life so far and is in the final round of a Grand Slam for the first time ever. Partly due to the experience advantage, the odds are swinging in the direction of the older of the two ladies between Rybakina and Halep.

Apart from that, Halep has recently shown impressively that she can quickly take the wind out of the sails of particularly powerful players. As the only remaining semi-finalist, the current world number 18 has yet to lose a set in the tournament and has been convincing all along the line. If she also brings her qualities to the court on Thursday, there is a lot to suggest that a prediction for Romania will come true in the duel between Rybakina and Halep.

Elena Rybakina – Statistics & current form

Elena Rybakina has had a mixed 2022 so far. The Moscow-born right-hander, who plays under the Kazakh flag and is only allowed to compete in London for that reason, has had to battle with injuries several times this season. Twice the 23-year-old had to withdraw before the start of her match, once she retired during the match.

The preparation for Wimbledon did not go according to plan for the tall blonde either. Rybakina travelled to London with a record of only one win from three matches. In s’Hertogenbosch, the Kazakh lost to Shelby Rogers in two sets and in Eastbourne she lost to Lesya Tsurenko in three rounds.

It is all the more surprising that the current world number 23 has now made it to the semi-finals on the hallowed turf in England’s capital. So far, the quarter-finals at the French Open 2021 and the round of 16 at Wimbledon last year were the best results of Stefano Vukov’s protégé.

Rybakina needs first serve

In the tournament week so far, however, Rybakina has been able to bring her best tennis to the court. With Coco Vandeweghe, Bianca Andreescu, Qinwen Zheng and Petra Martic, the first four opponents were all defeated in two sets. Only in the quarter-finals against Tomljanovic did the 23-year-old lose the first set before she remembered her strengths and won the following two sets.

Once again, it was the outstanding serve that ultimately made the difference. Rybakina hit 15 aces, only double-faulted once and, by women’s standards, made a whopping 76% of all points when the first service came into the court. Only the high number of avoidable errors (28) was a point of criticism, but thanks to the 34 winners, this receded into the background.

Nevertheless, the young lady now expects a completely different calibre in the most important tennis match of her career so far. Halep hardly makes any mistakes, will be able to return many serves well and also has enormous tactical flexibility. Since the Kazakh tends to act too wildly and lose her patience, we think there is a lot to be said for betting on the success of the more variable player in the second semi-final between Rybakina and Halep.

Simona Halep – Statistics & Current Form

Impressive. This word succinctly describes Simona Halep’s two tournament weeks so far. The former world number one has won all five matches so far in two sets. Only Kirsten Flipkens has won more than four games against the right-hander in a single round. Anisimova won only six games in total, Badosa only four.

By far, the Romanian left the best impression in London so far. No wonder that before the semi-final between Rybakina and Halep, the lowest betting odds on the tournament victory are now offered on the two-time Grand Slam winner

Halep has not lost at Wimbledon for four years

The fact that the 30-year-old is now on twelve consecutive victories on the hallowed turf at Church Road is not the least argument in her favour. The last time she lost a Grand Slam match in the English capital was in 2018. In any case, the woman on Constanta can be described as an absolute grass expert. Over her entire career, she celebrated 50 victories in 69 matches on grass. She is now in the semi-finals of the most important tennis tournament of the year for the third time.

The greatest strength of the experienced number 18 in the world is the many variations that the 1.68-metre right-hander has in her game. Halep seems to be mentally and physically at her best these days, hardly makes any avoidable mistakes, serves very well and can drive any opponent to despair with her defensive skills.

It can be assumed that Elena Rybakina will also not find a recipe against the variable style of play of the tournament favourite. The logical consequence would be to predict a sixth 2-0 win for the Romanian in the Rybakina vs Halep duel.

Elena Rybakina – Simona Halep Direct comparison / H2H record

These two ladies have met three times in the past three years. While Rybakina won the first direct duel in 2019, Simona Halep narrowly prevailed in three sets in both 2020 and 2021. Both matches also featured at least one tie break. If you would like to place a bet on Thursday that 13 games will be played in one set, Bet365 offers 3.25 as the maximum odds. Finally, it should be mentioned that all three matches were played on hard court and not on grass.

Elena Rybakina – Simona Halep Tip

Four women are still fighting for the coveted Wimbledon title. The biggest outsider is of course Germany’s Tatjana Maria, who will face Ons Jabeur in the first semi-final on Thursday. The Tunisian wants to be the first African tennis player ever to win a Grand Slam tournament. Simona Halep is most likely to stand in her way.

The Romanian has played an excellent tournament so far, not dropping a single set in five matches and thus making the best impression of all the remaining players. If she maintains the form of the last few days, there are many indications that the 30-year-old will be able to defend her title from 2019. Because she did not play in 2020 and Halep did not compete in 2021, she has now won twelve matches in a row at Church Road

For her opponent Elena Rybakina, this match on centre court will be the most important of her career so far. So mentally it will be a very different challenge. We don’t think the Kazakh is experienced enough for a match of this magnitude. She will make a lot of avoidable mistakes and won’t really be able to cope with the uncomfortable style of play of the former world number one.

With this in mind, our first choice between Rybakina and Halep is to bet on the tournament favourite winning at least four more games than her seven-year-younger opponent, who is making her first Grand Slam final round appearance.