Does the Djoker manage to take revenge for the 2021 final?
The ranks have thinned out and the dream final that fans have been longing for has failed to materialize. Instead of the next epic edition between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic, there will be a rematch of the 2021 final. After a run of twelve consecutive singles victories at Flushing Meadows, the outgoing Spanish world number one had to concede defeat to the Russian in the semifinals. Nevertheless, according to the bettors’ assessment of Daniil Medvedev vs. Novak Djokovic, the bet on the tournament victory of the Moscow player is not under the best omens.
However, it should be noted that exactly two years ago in the final of the hard court Grand Slam tournament in New York City, the Russian dismantled the Serbian superstar in an outright 3-0 victory. The Moscow native also won the last meeting between the two athletes 2-0 in Dubai in February 2023, but is 5-9 down overall in the head-to-head comparison. In principle, it therefore makes perfect sense that the forecast for Daniil Medvedev against Novak Djokovic nevertheless tends in the direction of the Djoker.
It is worth noting that the duel between the two players was often a clear-cut affair despite several big wins on both sides. At Grand Slam level, the two players have faced each other three times so far. In the two finals in 2021 – at the Australian Open Nole won outright 3:0, at the US Open Medvedev took the 3:0 – it was a one-sided match in each case and also in the round of 16 at the Australian Open 2019 it was only 40 games in total in Djoker’s 3:1 victory.
With that in mind, we find a lot of value in betting on the two top stars on the ATP Tour meeting again in the 143rd final of the men’s singles at the US Open to decide in under 40.5 games.
Daniil Medvedev – statistics & current form
Current position in the world ranking: 3
Position in the seedings: 3
The 27-year-old Russian Daniil Medvedev has made it to the final of a Grand Slam tournament for the fifth time in his career. This summer, he was beaten 3-0 by high-flyer Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals of the Wimbledon Championships, but this time he thwarted the fans’ hopes of a dream final between the Spaniard and the Serb.
In the course of a remarkable performance, the Muscovite beat Carlos Alcaraz 3:1 in the semifinals this time and gets the chance to win his second Grand Slam title after the US Open in 2021.
Won 29 of 34 singles matches at the US Open
The Russian, who is often prone to mind games and who, for example, had a team of doctors come out of the field after losing a set in his second-round match against Christopher O’Connell in order to unsettle his opponent, will certainly do everything in his power to bring back memories of that crushing defeat for the Djoker.
It is well known that the Muscovite likes the center court of the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. Daniil Medvedev won 29 of his 34 completed singles matches at the US Open – an impressive win rate of 85.3%.
Breaking 18 of 19 service games against Alcaraz
While betting on Daniil Medvedev against Novak Djokovic, oddsmakers don’t think it’s overly likely that the 27-year-old will win his second Grand Slam title. However, after the strong semi-final, the world number three must be on the list.
Although Medvedev committed a total of ten double faults, he scored on his own serve 71% of the time against Alcaraz and won 18 of his 19 service games, defending eight of nine break points and committing six fewer unforced errors over the four sets. If he can keep that up in the final, the Djoker will undoubtedly have his work cut out for him as well.
Novak Djokovic – statistics & current form
Current position in the world ranking: 2
Position in the seedings: 2
The Serb, now 36 years old, has actually done it once more. For the tenth time, Novak Djokovic, who went without losing a set in five of his six victories, will be fighting for the coveted US Open Trophy on Sunday evening.
Overall, it is the 36th final of a Grand Slam tournament that the perennial favorite has reached in his career in men’s singles. So far, he has lost “only” twelve of the 35 finals. However, half of these defeats can be traced back to the US Open of all places.
Won 87 of the 100 singles matches at the US Open
Although Djoker’s record at Flushing Meadows reads extremely strong at 87 wins from 100 completed singles matches, the 36-year-old has lost six of the nine US Open finals he has reached so far. His last defeat came two years ago, when he lost 3-0 to his current opponent.
Nevertheless, when it comes to Daniil Medvedev versus Novak Djokovic, the odds in this final are in favor of the Serb, who has played an absolutely outstanding year in which he has achieved the feat of reaching the final of all four Grand Slam tournaments. Had he not lost the five-setter to Carlos Alcaraz at Wimbledon, he would now even be playing for the Grand Slam.
Won five of six matches on way to final 3-0
While on his way to the final this year, Nole was also on the brink of elimination at one point when he was surprisingly down 2-0 in sets in the third round against compatriot Laslo Djere. But the fact that he then got his act together in this difficult match and landed the 3:2 comeback victory, which was ultimately almost not in danger, says a lot about the Djoker’s form.
In three straight 3-0 victories against the ambitious “local heroes” Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton, nothing was burning. The 36-year-old surrendered only two service games in the semifinals, while he was very concentrated in the rallies, winning 44% of his return points and committing just 25 unforced errors.
Daniil Medvedev – Novak Djokovic Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 5:9
Already 14 times both athletes faced each other in a singles match and with nine wins Novak Djokovic leads the direct comparison overall. Meanwhile, this is the third time the two players have faced each other in a Grand Slam tournament final. After the Djoker recorded a 3-0 victory over the Russian at the Australian Open in 2021, Daniil Medvedev returned the favor with an outright 3-0 win at the US Open in 2021.
In the calendar year 2023, it will also be the third duel between the two exceptional players. After the Djoker won 2:0 in the semifinals of the Adelaide International 1, Daniil Medvedev also won 2:0 in the semifinals of the Dubai Tennis Championships in the last meeting to date.
Daniil Medvedev – Novak Djokovic Tip
When it comes to Daniil Medvedev vs Novak Djokovic, the betting odds are swinging in the direction of the Serbian superstar, who has already won two of the three Grand Slam tournaments in 2023 and leads 9:5 in the head-to-head comparison against his Russian opponent. In the back of the Djoker’s mind, however, is probably the 2021 final, which he lost 3-0 to Medvedev. In any case, the Serb’s record at Flushing Meadows is not ideal. Djokovic has already lost six of the nine finals he has reached in New York City.
It’s even more difficult to predict the outcome of Daniil Medvedev’s final against Novak Djokovic, which could well go completely in the direction of the Russian, who put in a remarkably strong performance against high-flyer Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals.
We are therefore betting that under 40.5 games will be needed to crown this year’s champion.
