Can Rune resist the power tennis of Alcaraz?

Together, Carlos Alcaraz and Holger Rune are just 40 years old. Despite the youthful age of the two top talents, it is already clear that they will play a decisive role in shaping the tennis circus in the next decade.

While the Spanish world number one already has his masterpiece in the bag with his success at last year’s US Open, his Danish opponent is still waiting for his first Grand Slam semi-final.

Many indications are that this will remain the case after Wednesday’s Wimbledon quarter-final. Prior to the Alcaraz vs. Rune match, bets on the Spanish youngster are significantly lower. Consequently, the role of the favourite for the man from Murcia is quite pronounced. No wonder, because even though Carlito has “already” lost two sets in the tournament so far, he has 9-0 victories in the entire grass court season.

Holger Rune, of course, cannot keep up with such impressive statistics. Quite the opposite. Before this year’s Wimbledon Championships, the 20-year-old Northern European had never been able to win a tour match on grass. Because the world number seven, who is playing a strong 2023 tennis year so far, has also left considerably more power in his matches so far, a prediction of the Iberian’s success in the Alcaraz vs. Rune duel is close at hand.

Carlos Alcaraz – statistics & current form

Last year Carlos Alcaraz reached the last 16 of Wimbledon after four sets against Jannik Sinner. In 2o23, the Spaniard made it to the last eight of the world’s most prestigious tennis tournament for the first time in his career. However, the quarter-finals are by no means the end of the line. Instead, the world number one, who could meet the serial winner Novak Djokovic in the final at the earliest, is aiming for his second Grand Slam title.

While there were justified doubts beforehand as to whether the 20-year-old talent of the century would be able to prove his extra class on grass on a regular basis, these quiet doubts have now completely vanished into thin air. Carlito won the preparatory tournament in Queens, dropping just one set in five matches against dangerous opponents and currently has nine wins from nine grass court matches this season.

Alcaraz is still without defeat on grass in 2023

Coach Juan Carlos Ferrero’s protégé has also been convincing all along the line at the All England Tennis Club. He won two straight three-set matches against Chardy and Muller, but lost one set each against the serving monsters Jarry and Berrettini. Nevertheless, the US Open winner from the previous year was able to return serves of well over 210 km/h with a fearsome regularity and brutal quality.

In addition to this particular strength on the return, the world number one has long since established himself as a strong server. Added to this is his irrepressible power, which he can produce with both forehand and backhand. When it comes to fitness, the 1.83 metre tall right-handed player from Murcia is hardly anyone else on the tour.

Because the designated successor of the Djokovic/Murray/Federer generation already has the mental strength to show his best tennis at important moments, we are convinced that the odds on the Iberian’s victory in the Wimbledon quarter-final on Wednesday between Alcaraz and Rune will pay off. A handicap bet in terms of games (-5.5) or sets (-1.5) also seems interesting.

Holger Rune – Statistics & current form

Holger Rune is currently one of the few professionals on the tour who cultivate a certain bad boy image. Although the young Dane is still a long way from reaching similar heights as Nick Kyrgios, for example, he is still viewed rather critically by many fans and competitors. But there is no denying that a certain amount of envy also plays a role.

At the age of 20, Rune already belongs to the top ten in the world rankings. He is currently ranked seventh. In the current tennis year, the Northern European has won 39 of his 51 singles matches. However, things are not yet going according to plan for the powerful right-hander in Grand Slam tournaments. To date, he has not reached a Grand Slam semi-final. At the French Open 2022 and 2023, Rune lost both his quarter-finals so far.

Rune is not considered a proven grass court specialist

We think it is unlikely that this will change at Wimbledon. Similar, by the way, to the bookmakers, who offer odds in the range of 4.10 for the success of the outsider from Copenhagen before the duel Alcaraz vs Rune. This assessment is based, among other things, on the fact that the previous matches of the 20-year-old have cost more substance.

Against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Rune had to go into the tiebreak of the fifth set, against Grigor Dimitrov it also took four sets. All in all, the 1.88 metre tall right-hander did not make such a convincing impression against supposedly weaker grass court players as his upcoming opponent.

To make matters worse, the world number seven had never actually won an ATP match on grass until his first-round match at Wimbledon. The last time he was successful on the green surface was in 2019, albeit in the junior competition at Wimbledon. At the preparatory tournament in Queens almost a fortnight ago, Rune was defeated in the semi-finals by Alex de Minaur, who then lost the final to Carlos Alcaraz in two straight sets. Another indication to force a prediction on the world number one between Alcaraz and Rune.

Carlos Alcaraz – Holger Rune Direct comparison / H2H balance

The two youngsters have already fought two duels. In 2021, Carlos Alcaraz won the Next Gen Finals in Milan in three sets. However, it only took four games to win a round robin. Meanwhile, the only run success dates back to Paris 2022, but when the Dane benefited from the Spaniard retiring through injury.

Carlos Alcaraz – Holger Rune Tip

Two of the most talented youngsters on the tour, two current top ten players and two professionals who will shape the next decade face each other in the quarter-finals of Wimbledon on Wednesday. The role of favourite goes relatively clearly to the world number one from Spain, who has won all nine grass court matches so far this season and recently eliminated strong servers like Jarry or Berettini.

Since the Alcaraz vs. Rune betting odds do not carry a particularly appealing value in the simple two-way market, we even go for a commanding success of the 2022 US Open winner, arguing that Rune has so far left a weaker impression against weaker opponents and has never reached a Grand Slam semi-final.

We therefore recommend a tip between Alcaraz and Rune that the power tennis of Carlito will once again be successful. In our eyes, it is even conceivable to play the games handicap (-5.5) at very exciting top odds of 1.90.