Who will book an early ticket to the semi-finals?

Traditionally, the winners and losers of the first round of the ATP Finals play each other directly on the second day of the unorthodox group stage of tennis tournaments.

The early match of the day will be a clash between the two opening winners Andrey Rublev and Novak Djokovic from 14:00. It can be predicted in advance that the winner of this match will almost certainly secure his place in the semi-finals. A small residual risk remains, however, as it is well known that in the Round Robin the set or match ratio and not the head-to-head is used as a yardstick with the same number of wins.

When looking at the betting odds, it quickly becomes clear that Djoker, who has now fallen to eighth position in the world rankings, is the clear favourite. If you want to bet on the Serb between Rublev and Djokovic, you get low odds of 1.35. So we have to get a bit creative in order to filter out appealing quotes and play them.

Andrey Rublev – Statistics & current form

Andrey Rublev is playing a strong 2022 tennis year so far, with his record of 50 wins in 68 matches reading very well. The 25-year-old has won two singles titles. A few weeks ago, he won the indoor tournament in Gijon, among other things after a semi-final victory over Dominic Thiem. At the beginning of the season, the right-hander triumphed thanks to a final win over Novak Djokovic on clay at his home tournament in Belgrade.

At Grand Slam level, the 1.88 metre tall Russian was only represented in Paris and at the US Open in 2022. Both times he reached the quarter-finals. This continued a worrying trend for the Moscow-born player, as Rublev has now reached the last eight of a Grand Slam six times, but the strong server has never reached the semi-finals.

Rublev needs to stay focused for the entire match

For the third time in a row, the current world number seven is now competing in the Tour Finals. In the first two attempts, Rublev had to take his hat off in the group phase. This time, the Eastern European, who is known for his emotional outbursts, is aiming for at least the semi-finals. The start of this tournament already went according to plan. Somewhat unexpectedly, Rublev won the opening match against Medvedev. The score was 6:7, 6:3 and 7:6 after an intense match in which the younger of the two compatriots scored seven points more.

The decisive factor for the success was the strong performance on the return. Rublev scored exactly every third point on the serve of the former world number one. In total, the supposed underdog had nine break points, three of which he converted. In the end, it was the fifth match point that secured the important victory and allows the 25-year-old to go into the second group match with a broad chest.

There, the goal must once again be to win more than 80% of the points on the first serve and to attack on the return. If he succeeds, we can look forward to another long and balanced match. Consequently, the odds on many games between Rublev and Djokovic would be worth considering. We can also well imagine a tie break, after all, in the opening match between Rublev and Medvedev two of the three sets were decided in the 13th game.

Novak Djokovic – Statistics & current form

It is quite curious that Novak Djokovic, currently eighth in the world rankings, has only just jumped on the ATP Finals bandwagon in Turin. There are, of course, many reasons for this. First and foremost, however, they are not even related to sport. Above all, the Serb’s uncertain vaccination status ensured in the past that the long-time dominator of the tennis scene was not allowed to play some tournaments and therefore also lost points for the ranking.

The class of the 21-time Grand Slam champion is nevertheless undisputed. At the Tour Finals, the now 35-year-old is once again being treated as the top favourite for the title. Before the second group match between Rublev and Djokovic, the odds for Djokovic to win the tournament are just a paltry 1.72. There is no value to be seen, even though the overwhelming role of the favourite is of course understandable in view of recent results.

Djokovic wants to go two better in the return

After the successful grass court season, which ended for Nole once again with the Wimbledon triumph, he played exclusively indoor tournaments on hard court. The veteran won two of these three tournaments. Among them was the ATP in Astana, where he defeated Tsitsipas and Medvedev in succession. Only at the dress rehearsal in Paris did Djokovic have to admit defeat to youngster Holger Rune in the final.

The record holder with the most weeks at the top of the world rankings seems to have coped well with this defeat, because Djokovic won the opening match against Tsitsipas in two sets. The right-hander only allowed one break point, but was rarely able to attack the Greek’s serve. The logical consequence was a tie break in the second set. Since the return game of probably the best return player in the world does not yet work one hundred percent, there is hope for his Russian opponent.

We think it is not unlikely that Djokovic will need some time to get into the swing of things in the first games. We do not believe in an early break. Accordingly, there are various betting recommendations, such as a Rublev vs. Djokovic prediction that the score will be 2:2 after four games played. We also consider at least ten games in the first set to be an interesting option, especially since a break may even happen under certain circumstances without the bet being lost. If you want to take even more of a risk, you can bet on a tie break and hope for

Andrey Rublev – Novak Djokovic Direct comparison / H2H record

Although both players have been competing at this level for many years, Rublev and Djokovic have only faced each other twice in direct duels. The balance is even. The Russian won the aforementioned Belgrade final on clay in three sets this year and even gave the Djoker his most severe thrashing ever in the third round with 6:0.

Djokovic, on the other hand, won the group stage of the ATP Finals in Turin exactly one year ago in two straight sets. The Serb won 6:3, 6:2. We are expecting a somewhat more exciting course of events on Wednesday.

Andrey Rublev – Novak Djokovic Tip

With a good starting position behind them, Andrey Rublev and Novak Djokovic are already fighting for a place in the semi-finals of the ATP Finals on Wednesday lunchtime. The winner is virtually through, while the loser will most likely get a deciding match on the last day of play.

In this duel, the role of favourite goes quite clearly to the long-time world number one and title contender from Serbia. The betting odds do not allow any other conclusions between Rublev and Djokovic. Although the head-to-head record of these players is even, the 21-time Grand Slam champion has recently been too strong on hard court indoors for his Russian opponent to have any serious hopes of victory.

Despite that, we believe in an exciting and close first set. Rublev served well against Medvedev, making over 80% of his points on the first serve. The 25-year-old only surrendered one service game. If he can build on that performance, there could be some games to play again this time on the second day of the group stage, especially as Djokovic may need some time to get to his own top level at the start.

We have therefore decided to bet on at least ten games in the first set in the duel between Rublev and Djokovic.