Will the Spanish underdog make Sascha sweat?
In the top half of the tournament tree of the 126th French Open men’s singles, seven of the eight remaining players are from the seedings. Among them is German hopeful Alexander Zverev. The only exception is his opponent Bernabé Zapata Miralles, who surprisingly fought his way into the last 16 as a qualifier.
The Spaniard recently beat Taylor Fritz and John Isner, two players from the seeded list. However, the 25-year-old has never beaten a top 10 player before. Consequently, in the run-up to the duel between Alexander Zverev and Bernabé Zapata Miralles, the odds are swinging in the direction of the reigning world champion.
Of course, at least the experience is clearly in favour of Sascha, who, however, already struggled in the second round of the tournament. Against Sebastián Báez, the Hamburg player was down 0:2 in sets, but then still managed the 3:2 comeback win. Even in his opening win over Sebastian Ofner, the German surrendered ten games.
Accordingly, we see a lot of value in betting on Alexander Zverev against Bernabé Zapata Miralles that the Spanish qualifier, who as an unknown quantity is likely to be difficult to play anyway, will also win at least ten games. We therefore use the Asian handicap of +8.5 on the Valencian.
Alexander Zverev – Statistics & current form
Current ranking in the world rankings: 3
Position in the seedings: 3
The 25-year-old German Alexander Zverev has already won the ATP Finals twice (2018 and 2021). On top of that, the Hamburg native achieved a major coup last summer in Tokyo when he won the gold medal in the men’s singles at the Olympic Games.
In total, the established top 10 player has already won 19 singles titles on the ATP Tour. Only a Grand Slam has not yet been won. The expectations are correspondingly high in Roland Garros as well.
Already 45 matches lost on the way to the last 16
So far, the German’s path in the third section of the tournament tree has actually been pleasant. Neither Sebastian Ofner nor Sebastián Báez and most recently Brandon Nakashima were considered stumbling blocks. And with the Spanish qualifier in the round of 16, the 25-year-old also faces a compulsory task.
However, Sascha was not unconditionally confident. In the opening match, he gave up ten games. Against Báez, he dropped 20 games and most recently against Nakashima, against whom two sets were decided in a tiebreak, he dropped 15. Accordingly, the value of Alexander Zverev against Bernabé Zapata Miralles is that his next opponent will also take at least ten games from the German.
Wins more than 40% of all points on the opponent’s serve
At least on his own serve things went well for the German with the exception of the second round match. Sascha only surrendered one service game in round one and round three. Against Báez alone in the second round, however, he lost five service games.
On the other hand, the world number three’s own return values were positive, as in all three matches so far he scored at least 40 % of all times on his opponent’s serve. This has already earned him 33 break points during the tournament, but he has only been able to convert 13 of them.
Bernabé Zapata Miralles – Statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 131
Seeded List Position: Qualifier
The 25-year-old Spaniard Bernabé Zapata Miralles was a complete unknown before the French Open 2022. The man from Valencia had only made it into the main draw of a Grand Slam tournament three times before. The only time he has won a match was at the US Open in 2021.
The underdog, who mainly competes on the ATP Challenger Tour, where he has already won three titles – all on clay – has only played 32 singles matches on the ATP Tour, of which he has only won twelve.
Several milestones already for Zapata Miralles
Now the Spaniard is celebrating his breakthrough for this at Roland Garros. For the first time in his career, the 25-year-old is in the last 16 of a Grand Slam tournament. For the first time, he defeated a top-15 player, Taylor Fritz, in the second round. And for the first time, he will break into the top 100 rankings himself after the next evaluation.
Accordingly, the run at the French Open will open a lot of doors for the Valencian, who, as a clear underdog, will now face a top-10 player for the first time ever.
With strong return game into the last 16
However, the first Spanish qualifier to reach the fourth round of a Grand Slam tournament speaks for the high quality of his returns. Against Taylor Fritz, the 25-year-old scored on his opponent’s serve in no less than 50% of all cases.
Even against the service giant John Isner, Zapata Miralles managed a highly respectable 34% of point wins when the American giant served. A score that should enable him to take a game or two from the similarly strong German server. After all, the Spaniard also managed to break five times against Isner.
Alexander Zverev – Bernabé Zapata Miralles Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 0:0
Never before have both players faced each other in a singles match on the ATP Tour. As a result, there is no head to head data available to factor into the prediction for Alexander Zverev vs. Bernabé Zapata Miralles
Alexander Zverev – Bernabé Zapata Miralles Tip
Although Bernabé Zapata Miralles has impressed with a strong return game so far in the tournament. The number 131 in the ATP world rankings is nevertheless the clear underdog. The Valencian has played just 32 singles on the ATP Tour so far, of which he has won only twelve matches. He is now facing a top 10 player for the first time ever in his career. Consequently, it is a compulsory task for the third-ranked player in the world from Germany.
Ultimately, we also believe that Sascha will hold his own and make it into the quarter-finals. However, it won’t be a walk in the park given the return values of the Spanish qualifier so far. Therefore, we are betting on the Valencian winning at least ten games.
