Does Zverev struggle to reach the third round?

Almost exactly one year after his terrible injury, Alexander Zverev is back in the same place where he tore several ligaments in his ankle and suffered a severe career setback as a result. While the best German tennis player was still in the semi-finals of the French Open in 2022 and had clay-court king Rafael Nadal on the brink of defeat until his painful sprain, the Hamburg-born player currently seems miles away from being a serious contender for the title in Paris.

After all, Sascha was able to jump over his opening hurdle at the second Grand Slam of the year and even remained without losing a set. Now, however, a somewhat different calibre awaits the Olympic champion in the second main round. Before the duel between Zverev and Molcan, betting on the German could involve more risk than the betting odds suggest.

On the one hand, against the backdrop that Sophia Thomalla’s partner is still lagging behind his own top form and has not yet been able to celebrate any real highlight in the 2023 tennis year.

On the other hand, however, it is also due to the opponent, who is currently also ranked around 50 places below his career high in the world rankings, but can still be an uncomfortable opponent. It is therefore by no means out of the question that the supposed favourite will once again struggle and that the prediction of a longer match with four or five sets between Zverev and Molcan will come true.

Alexander Zverev – Statistics & current form

Alexander Zverev is now 26 years old, the German has collected almost 34 million US dollars in prize money on the tour and crowned himself Olympic champion in 2020. However, the 1.98 metre tall right-hander has not yet been able to fulfil his big dream. We are talking, of course, about the Grand Slam triumph, which he had a taste of in the final of the US Open against Dominic Thiem in 2020. His impressive CV includes a total of five semi-final appearances, but he has only reached the final once.

Since his injury at the French Open last year, however, the question has arisen as to whether the Hamburg player will ever reach his best level again. Looking at the first six months after his comeback, many experts will probably answer this question with a “no”. Even in May 2023, Sascha Zverev is still as far away from his prime tennis as Oliver Kahn is from being beatified by FC Bayern München.

Does Zverev have to push his limits already in round two?

The below-average record in the 2023 calendar year alone clearly underlines that the German tennis hopeful continues to lack conviction, belief and self-confidence. Out of 31 matches, Sascha could only win 17. Instead, he left the court as a loser 14 times. The semi-finals at the tournaments in Dubai (hard court) and last week in Geneva (clay court) were the highest of feelings. Against good opponents, there was often no match for him, while against weaker opponents, the right-hander regularly struggled to make an impact.

Even his first match at the French Open 2023 was far from free of worries. Against the South African Lloyd Harris, who was also plagued by many injuries, went into this Grand Slam without any match practice and, moreover, did not appear as a clay court expert on the tour so far, the Olympic champion of 2020 had to go into a tie break in each of the first two sets and was only able to break free a little in the third set against an opponent who was getting increasingly tired.

Seven double faults, eight break points and 42 unforced errors were evidence of the German’s rather ordinary performance, but it was enough to see him through on this day. If the former world number 27, who has slipped down the rankings in the meantime, cannot improve greatly on Thursday, another tough match beckons, which will probably not be over after three sets. Consequently, ahead of the second-round duel Zverev vs. Molcan, we plead for the odds to be on the Slovakian underdog making the encounter closer than expected.

Alex Molcan – Statistics & current form

For a long time Alex Molcan had to wait for his final breakthrough on the ATP Tour. In 2021, the Slovakian was able to attract attention for the first time with good results, among others, the 25-year-old reached the third round at the US Open and developed from a strong Challenger player to a rock-solid professional in the concert of the greats. In 2022, he finally followed up with some positive results, so that he climbed to position 38 in the rankings in July of the previous year.

Especially on clay, the very nimble and physically brilliant Molcan showed his great potential, making it, for example, to the semi-finals of Hamburg (defeat by Alcaraz) or to the final of Lyon, where he lost to Cameron Norrie in three sets. Recently, however, the Slovakian has been struggling with minor injuries so that he has not yet regained the flow he had in the past.

Molcan will bring back many balls

In the 2023 tennis year, Molcan has only managed to play 24 matches. The record is even with twelve wins and twelve losses each. Because the protégé of Karol Beck and Marian Vaijda, who once earned his spurs as Novak Djokovic’s coach but put in good performances on clay against decent opponents, only failed in the semi-finals at the 250 tournament in Banja Luka and also presented himself at least competitively at the Masters, we are confident that the prediction of at least one set win for the outsider will go through between Zverev and Molcan.

This is also supported by his passable performance in his first match at this year’s French Open, in which he did not drop a set against local hero Hugo Gaston. The right-hander, who is now ranked 86th in the world, had 18 (!) break chances, went to the net 36 times (64 % won points) and committed far fewer unforced errors than his upcoming opponent.

The Slovak will therefore also manage one or two breaks against the German. All the more reason to consider the odds for a games handicap or a certain number of won games in favour of the underdog before the match between Zverev and Molcan.

Alexander Zverev – Alex Molcan Direct Comparison / H2H Record

Although the two professionals have never faced each other in a direct duel at ATP Tour level, they know each other very well. The reason is that both Zverev and Molcan were born in 1997 and have therefore already played a few matches at junior level. However, since the last of these encounters dates back to 2011 and the players have developed in different directions since then, the head-to-head does not play a role at all in this second-round match.

Alexander Zverev – Alex Molcan Tip

On his way back to the top of the world, it could be a great story if Alexander Zverev manages a real highlight at the French Open, of all places, a year after his nasty injury. But we lack a little faith, because in the first six months after his comeback, the German Olympic champion could not even begin to match his performances before the injury. Although his ankle no longer hinders him, the Hamburg native still has a lot of catching up to do, especially on a mental level.

Against this background, we believe that the betting odds were distributed far too one-sidedly before the match between Zverev and Molcan. We wouldn’t necessarily bet on a surprise win for the Slovak, but we still trust the world number 86, who was also already number 38, to win at least one set.

An even more interesting bet between Zverev and Molcan is that the good clay court player from Presov will win at least 16 games in this match. Here we refer to the assumption that there will be no clear victory for the German Olympic champion, who has been weakening from time to time. At the same time, we also hedge against an underdog win and get a very appealing 1.90 at the top for said bet, which we play with six units.