Different omens in the clash of two former cup winners
In the third round of the Spanish King’s Cup, the duels are primarily David against Goliath. Often it is third division teams that challenge the clubs from the upper house. One of the most interesting encounters, however, is coming up on Thursday evening. Real Zaragoza and Sevilla will clash in the north-east of the country.
The home side have already won the Copa del Rey six times in their successful club history and also have plenty of first division experience. However, it is doubtful whether this will be enough to eliminate the La Liga title contenders from the cup competition. Judging by the Zaragoza vs. Sevilla odds, there is not much to suggest a surprise coup for the underdogs from Aragon.
This assessment is primarily based on the disappointing season the “Blanquillos” have had so far in the Spanish Segunda División. Apart from that, the Andalusians are a highly decorated opponent who not only have the advantage in terms of quality, but have also proven several times in the past that the national cup has a certain value. With this in mind, it is almost impossible to make a prediction on the hosts between Zaragoza and Sevilla.
Saragossa – Statistics & current form
Real Zaragoza have won the Spanish King’s Cup a total of six times. The last time the club from Aragon won the title was in 2004. In the exciting final against the star ensemble of Real Madrid, they prevailed after extra time, led by well-known names such as David Villa or Gabriel Milito, and did not even allow themselves to be upset by a half-hour deficit.
Such glory days are not in sight at the moment, however. The club, which was founded in 1932 and even won the European Cup Winners’ Cup in 1995, is in a persistent crisis. Since 2013, Zaragoza has been at home in the second Spanish league. Although they only narrowly failed to win promotion again in 2018 and 2020, their development has been on the decline of late. In 2020/21, they only managed 15th place in the final standings, and things are not going well at all in the current season either.
Saragossa have disappeared into the depths of the second division
After 22 completed match days, a meagre 26 points are on the books. Only five games have been won. Instead, there have already been eleven draws, which is the highest number in the league. Sixteenth place, just six points clear of the relegation zone, is at least as worrying as the fact that Juan Ignacio Martinez’s side have won only one of their last six league games and have lost their last three.
The main problem is the far too harmless attack, which has scored just two goals since mid-November. Only relegation candidates Alcorcon and Fuenlabrada have scored less often than the northern Spanish side, who have not conceded a goal in either of their Copa del Rey matches so far. Admittedly, the level of difficulty against Mensajero and Burgos was also limited.
Now, a completely different calibre awaits and we do not expect the struggling and unsettled outsiders to pull off a surprise coup. Therefore, between Zaragoza and Sevilla, we recommend betting on a win for the visitors. We don’t even trust the home team to score a goal. No wonder, after all, they have only scored six goals in eleven second division home games this season.
Predicted line-up of Zaragoza:
Raton; A Lopez, L Lopez, Clemente, Nieto; Zapater, Eguaras, Adrian; Yanis, Azon, Sainz
Last matches played by Zaragoza:
LaLiga2
01/02 2022 – CD Mirandes 2 – 0 Real Zaragoza
12/19 2021 – Real Zaragoza 0 – 2 Tenerife
Copa del Rey
12/14 2021 – Real Zaragoza 2 – 0 Burgos CF
LaLiga2
12/11 2021 – Almeria 3 – 0 Real Zaragoza
12/06 2021 – Real Zaragoza 1 – 0 Eibar
Sevilla – Statistics & current form
In the Spanish La Liga, Sevilla Fútbol Club is currently one of the teams most likely to benefit from the fact that other top teams like FC Barcelona or Atletico Madrid just can’t get going. However, this should in no way detract from the Andalusians’ good and, above all, consistent performances at national level in the current season.
Twelve wins from 19 games and only two defeats underline the remarkable seasonal balance, thanks to which the Nervionenses can even dream of their first championship title since 1946. Thanks to Real Madrid’s defeat at Getafe at the start of the year and Sevilla’s away win at relegation candidates Cadiz, the gap to the royals, who famously lead the standings, has shrunk to two points.
Sevilla likes the cup competitions
The centrepiece of coach Julen Lopetegui’s team is undoubtedly its defence. With only 13 goals conceded, there is no other Spanish backline that is more stable. In more than half of all La Liga games (ten out of 19), betting on a clean sheet would have been crowned with success. This is one of the reasons why it seems anything but impossible that the prediction of a win for the favourites in the clash between Zaragoza and Sevilla on Thursday evening will come true.
Anyway, we don’t doubt the Blanquirrojos will progress, especially since the five-time Cup winners (most recently in 2010) have not been knocked out in the third round of the Copa del Rey for almost 20 years. Since 2015, they have always made it at least to the round of 16, and twice even to the final.
This, in turn, is in line with our thesis that the southern Spaniards do very well in cup competitions, be it national or international. The now introduced “do-or-die” mode also suits the title contenders, which is why we believe in a success for the Lopetegui eleven simply because of their greater experience in such games. The fact that the coach will probably start the rotation machine does not change anything. En-Nesyri, Suso, Lamela, Navas or even Kounde are definitely missing; further load-controlling changes are likely.
Predicted Sevilla line-up:
Dmitrovic; Juanlu, Gudelj, Rekik, Augustinsson; Rakitic, Jordan, Torres; El Haddadi, Romero, Idrissi
Last matches played by Sevilla:
LaLiga
01/03 2022 – Cadiz 0 – 1 Sevilla
12/21 2021 – Sevilla 1 – 1 Barcelona
12/18 2021 – Sevilla 2 – 1 Atletico Madrid
Copa del Rey
12/15 2021 – CE Andratx (5)1 – 1(6) Sevilla
LaLiga
12/11 2021 – Athletic Bilbao 0 – 1 Sevilla
Saragossa – Sevilla Direct comparison / H2H record
In the Spanish La Liga the duel Saragossa vs Sevilla is already a kind of classic. In total, the clubs have faced each other in 102 games at the highest national level. With 46 wins compared to 35 defeats and 21 draws, the Andalusians lead the direct comparison.
In four cup matches, however, the balance is absolutely even, with one win each for both teams and two draws. However, the H2H should not have a significant influence on the match between Zaragoza and Sevilla and the odds, especially as the last direct encounter dates back to the 2012/13 season.
Saragossa – Sevilla Tip
Although Real Zaragoza and Sevilla will face each other directly in the third round of the Spanish King’s Cup on Thursday evening, the starting position is quickly explained. While the home side, who spent many decades in the top flight, have now slipped to the bottom of the Segunda División, the visitors from Andalusia can even hope for the La Liga championship in 2021/22.
It is therefore all the more surprising that before the match between Zaragoza and Sevilla, quite high betting odds are being offered on an away win after regular time. This can probably be explained by the fact that Julen Lopetegui will make a total rotation and take some key players out of the starting eleven. Nevertheless, we believe that the experienced Nervionenses have enough quality to continue their impressive streak in the Copa del Rey. Since 2001/02, the five-time triumphants have not failed to reach the third round.
In addition, of course, the current form curves must also be taken into account. Zaragoza have lost three in a row and have failed to score a goal of their own. Sevilla, on the other hand, have won four of their last five matches to close the gap on Real Madrid to two points. In addition, the least dangerous home team in the second division faces the best defence in the top flight.
We therefore believe that the most promising value between Zaragoza and Sevilla is hidden in the betting on the away win after 90 minutes.
