Will the climate cause a new goal record?

For the first time in football history, a World Cup will be played in winter. It should be obvious that the climate will play a major role in this special final round. While during the day you have to be prepared for temperatures of 25 to 30 degrees Celsius and a level of humidity that is unusual for many European countries, the conditions in the cooled and air-conditioned stadiums are completely different.

Naturally, this raises the question of how these different conditions will affect the performance of the teams, the approach of many teams and ultimately the number of goals scored.

Because this World Cup also falls in the middle of a regular season at club level and the top stars in particular have recently had to contend with a series of English weeks at their clubs, it has probably never been as difficult as at the 2022 World Cup to make a prediction about the number of goals. We have approached the matter below by looking back at recent tournaments. With the aim of taking a closer look at some goal markets at the World Cup.

How many goals will be scored at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar?

World Cups have been held every four years since 1930. Only during the Second World War was the world’s most important football tournament abandoned for understandable reasons.

To date, there have been 21 finals in which a total of 3172 goals have been scored. On average, 151 goals were scored per tournament, although this statistic must be put into perspective insofar as there were far fewer national teams competing in the past and therefore fewer matches were played.

Since 1998, the highlight for all football fans has been played in the tried and tested mode with 32 teams. The upcoming finals in Qatar will also feature 32 participants. This means that we can look forward to 64 matches – as usual.

To set a new record for the most goals scored at a World Cup, 2.688 goals per match are needed. The current record is 171 goals, set in France in 1998 and equalled in Brazil in 2014. Four years ago in Russia, 169 goals were scored. Note: By the way, this only refers to goals scored in regulation time or extra time. Goals scored in penalty shootouts are not included in the calculation.

There is every likelihood that a new record will be set in Qatar 2022. In our view, the climate and stress factors mentioned above tend to ensure that we will see more rather than fewer goals.

What speaks against this is the fact that the performance density at this level is getting tighter and tighter and clear underdogs, who a few years or decades ago had to put up with heavy defeats, are often a thing of the past. Many close matches are to be expected, which is why we find it difficult to commit to the number of goals at the 2022 World Cup. At the same time, close matches are again a driver for many extra time periods and thus extra minutes of play.

We therefore predict a high-scoring tournament and can well imagine betting on at least 166 goals being scored at the 2022 World Cup. Bet365 offers top odds of 2.37 on this. By the way, if you want to bet that the 155-goal mark will not be surpassed, you can even get 3.00 at the top.

Which team will score the most goals at the 2022 World Cup?

The question of which national team will score the most goals at the 2022 World Cup is largely related to two factors. On the one hand, it is of course about how far the team gets in the tournament. On the other hand, it should also be taken into account against which opponents the respective team will play in the preliminary round or could play in the further course of the competition.

Against this background, we are somewhat sceptical, for example, that the Brazilians will score the most goals. World Cup Group G is a tough one, with teams like Switzerland, Serbia and Cameroon. Moreover, the DFB team would already be waiting in the semi-finals. Argentina in a potential semi-final. That doesn’t bode well for a lot of goals. It is therefore somewhat surprising that the lowest odds are being offered on the Brazilians as the team with the most goals.

Are Depay and Co. the best attacking team of the tournament?

We turn our focus to other teams instead. Holland should be mentioned, as they have two supposedly easier opponents in Group A ahead of them in Qatar and Ecuador, and should also get a feasible opponent in the last 16. Moreover, with 33 goals scored in the qualifiers, the Oranje were one of the most offensively potent teams behind England (39) and Germany (36).

It is also conceivable to bet on the Argentines, who could benefit from their preliminary round match against Saudi Arabia. Belgium, England or maybe even Denmark are secret favourites in this category. However, we are going with coach Louis van Gaal’s Elftal. Subjectively, I even see the Dutch in a position to win the World Cup title.

Which team will score the fewest goals at the 2022 World Cup?

To predict the team with the fewest goals, it’s definitely worth ruling out potential progress in advance. National teams such as Costa Rica, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have very little chance of reaching the last 16 and are therefore predestined for this betting market.

We would also include the Iranians in the draw. Not necessarily because they are qualitatively incapable of marking goals, but considering Carlos Queiroz’s traditionally rather wait-and-see style of play. In the past 15 World Cup matches, the Iranians have scored only nine goals.

Against the defensively strong English and Welsh, as well as in the highly explosive duel with the Americans, we therefore do not expect many goals from the Asians. The 13.00 at Bet365 therefore makes perfect sense and can be played with a clear conscience with a small stake.

Which World Cup group will score the most goals?

An equally exciting look at the 2022 World Cup group with the most goals. Four years ago, it was Group G, by the way, in which a total of 24 goals were scored, i.e. an average of exactly four per match. That was mainly due to Panama and Tunisia, who lost 1:6 and 2:5 respectively.

If we assume that Saudi Arabia and Costa Rica are the weakest teams in this tournament, Group E and C come to mind. In fact, we would bet on Germany’s Group E, as Spain and the DFB team are two extremely strong offensive teams. Japan can surprise at any time and score goals on the counter-attack. Costa Rica will have to be careful not to get shot down two or even three times.