Surprise potential in Wigan?
Without a sound and fury in the Champions League, without any chance of winning the Premier League title and have already been knocked out of the second-tier EFL Cup. If Manchester United want to end the 2023/24 season with a trophy in their hands, the prestigious FA Cup is the only way to do so. In view of this fact and the fact that Erik ten Hag has been criticized as head coach of the Red Devils for months anyway, the bookmakers expect a concentrated performance from the record champions on Monday evening in round three.
There’s no doubt that Wigan Athletic are the favorites for the game at the DW Stadium, as they are a very prominent opponent, but “The Latics” are now only in the lower mid-table of the third-highest English division.
Nevertheless, we are far from denying this match any surprise potential. Although the visitors clearly have the edge in terms of quality, it has become clear several times in recent weeks and months that Bruno Fernandes and Co. struggle to find solutions and create many goalscoring opportunities, especially away from home against deep-lying opponents. With this in mind, it can be predicted that a resounding victory for the towering favorites in Wigan v Manchester United is rather unlikely
Wigan – Statistics & current form
It is now over ten years since Wigan Athletic sensationally crowned themselves FA Cup winners. In the 2012/13 season, “The Latics” won the final against Manchester City 1:0, allowing them to compete in the Europa League as a second division team the following year. Back then, Roberto Martinez was at the helm, who is now national team coach in Portugal and is eagerly awaiting the 2024 European Championship in Germany after a strong qualifying campaign.
Admittedly, it seems as if these outstanding successes read like something from another era, as the club, whose home ground is only around 24 miles away from Old Trafford in Manchester, has been on a steady decline at league level in recent years. Although they were promoted to the second division again in 2021/22, this was immediately “corrected” downwards again in the previous season. At the moment, “The Latics” are competing with Wycombe Wanderers, Fleetwood Town and Leyton Orient in England’s third division
Wigan will be hoping for home advantage and a solid home defense
However, anyone who believes that immediate promotion is within the realms of possibility is mistaken when looking at the league table. Coach Shaun Maloney’s side are in 18th place in the 24-team League One and are just four points clear of the first relegation spot. Nevertheless, they are the only team in the bottom eleven with a positive goal difference.
In general, the former FA Cup winners should not be taken lightly. On the one hand, due to the derby nature of the game, which adds an extra element of tension to this encounter. On the other hand, due to the fact that the club, which has struggled with financial problems on various occasions in the recent past, has won 22 of its 27 points at home so far. There have been seven wins, one draw and four defeats in twelve games at home. In fact, only one third division team has conceded fewer goals at home than Athletic.
This is one of the reasons why we tend to look at the odds for an under match between Wigan and Manchester United on Monday evening. On a more positive note, Maloney’s side have kept a clean sheet in five of their last eight home games and have conceded just eight goals in the first 45 minutes in 13 home games all season. In the FA Cup, the underdogs will inevitably adopt a defensive approach and try to keep a clean sheet for as long as possible.
Predicted Wigan line-up:
Tickle; Clare, Hughes, Morrison, Sessegnon; Shaw, Adeeko; McManaman, Lang, Godo; Magennis
Manchester United – Statistics & current form
The FA Cup plays a decisive role in the question of how Manchester United can somehow save the 2023/24 season or bring it to a conciliatory end. As already mentioned in the introduction, the Red Devils fell short of their own expectations in the league, the European Cup and the EFL Cup. There is no longer any chance of winning the title in these three competitions. Only in the most important cup on the island is a coup still possible. However, coach Erik ten Hag’s team are certainly not among the top favorites based on recent impressions
The pressure is on the Red Devils, who are weak away from home
This is partly due to the fact that MUFC have to overcome the first hurdle away from home on Monday evening. Bayern’s opponents in the previous round of the Champions League have done very little away from home so far. The record champions have won just four of their ten Premier League games away from home. Instead, they have already suffered five (!) defeats.)
Even more worrying, however, is the paltry offensive output in matches at opposing stadiums. In fact, only nine goals were scored in the aforementioned ten away games. By comparison, only bottom-placed Sheffield United have scored fewer goals away from home than the ten Hag side, who have picked up just one point from their last four PL away games and have failed to score on three occasions.
Although there is now a two-tier difference and the Dutch coach is likely to field his best eleven due to the importance of this match, our confidence in the performance of the Premier League’s eighth-placed team is definitely limited. It is therefore interesting to make a prediction between Wigan and Manchester United that, firstly, a maximum of one goal will be scored in the first half and, secondly, that the total number of goals scored in regulation time will not exceed three. If United leave the pitch as winners, it will most likely be with a narrow victory (1:0, 2:0).
Predicted Manchester United line-up:
Onana; Wan-Bissaka, Varane, Evans, Dalot; McTominay, Mainoo; Garnacho, Fernandes, Rashford; Hojlund
Wigan – Manchester United head-to-head / H2H record
Wigan Athletic’s experiences in encounters with neighbors Manchester United have not necessarily been crowned with success so far. Quite the opposite. The Latics have lost 18 of their 19 competitive matches against MUFC. The Red Devils have also won 15 of their 16 Premier League encounters and won their only FA Cup match in the 2016/17 season 4-0. It was the last head-to-head clash to date, which is why the head-to-head has little relevance to Monday night’s Wigan vs Manchester United odds
Wigan – Manchester United betting tip
One match is still to be played on the third round weekend of the FA Cup. There could be several reasons why those responsible at the English Football Association have decided to play Wigan Athletic against Manchester United at prime time on Monday evening. On the one hand, there is of course a kind of derby explosiveness due to the geographical proximity. Secondly, the potential for surprise is in the air.
Although Wigan are in the lower mid-table of the English third division, League One, and are still searching for themselves following their relegation from the second division in 2022/23, their positive home record in particular gives them hope. Seven wins in twelve home games makes for decent reading. The defensive strength is even better, as “The Latics” have one of the best home defenses in the league with eleven goals conceded at home. Nevertheless, the betting odds between Wigan and Manchester United are of course clearly in favor of the ten Hag team
In addition, it must be noted that the English record champions have only scored a measly nine goals in ten PL away games, have failed to score in three of their last four PL away games and are now under particular pressure in the FA Cup after their disappointments in the other competitions.
We can therefore well imagine that the visitors will have a harder time than expected and that we will see a very competitive and low-scoring duel at the DW Stadium. We therefore recommend the combined bet between Wigan and Manchester United that a maximum of one goal will be scored in the first half and that the under 3.5 will also go through after 90 minutes.
