Will Cadiz take another point from Valencia?
While the last third round matches in the Copa del Rey will be played on Thursday evening, the new matchday in La Liga already starts on Friday. The second match of the 16th round in the Spanish top flight will be between Valencia and Cadiz. In order to venture a prediction on the outcome of the match, it is first helpful to explain the table constellation in more detail.
The Blanquinegros are in tenth place in the table after another sobering first half of the season and must fight not to lose touch with the international places. For the guests from Andalusia, however, the only thing that matters is staying in the league. In second-to-last place, the southern Spanish side are currently one point off the top of the league.
Those looking forward to a goal spectacle should not be too disappointed if they see a low-scoring match. The last two head-to-head encounters in the league did not end 0-0 for nothing, so it is well worth considering betting on sub-par goals between Valencia and Cadiz, even though the hosts are rightly the favourites and have already scored a convincing win or two at home.
Valencia – Statistics & current form
Founded in 1919, Valencia Club de Fútbol not only has a great tradition, but also an extremely successful history. Six Spanish championships (most recently in 2004), eight cup victories and even various triumphs at international level adorn the letterhead of the club with the bat in its crest. However, the white-and-black team is currently far removed from such glorious days.
In 2017/18 and a year later in 2018/19, the Blanquinegros finished fourth in the final standings, but have now slipped into the grey mediocrity. Two ninth-place finishes and 13th position in the past three seasons have not, however, ensured that external expectations have come closer to reality. Consequently, there are also many critical voices with regard to the current season, claiming that coach Gennaro Gattuso is not getting the maximum out of his squad.
Valencia have more (offensive) power at home than away
The biggest problem facing the tenth-placed team in the table, who are six points off international business, is their lack of consistency. Every now and then, the existing potential flashes. For example, in the last La Liga home game to date against Betis Sevilla (3:0). It is striking that the bats are primarily convincing in front of their own fans.
13 of the 19 points were won in their own stadium. In addition, the Gattuso team scored almost twice as many goals at the Estadio de Mestalla (15) as away from home (eight). In addition to the aforementioned 3-0 win against Betis, Celta Vigo (3-0) and Getafe (5-1) were also brought to their knees at home. In five of the eight home games played, more goals were scored after the break.
We take these statistics as an opportunity to derive two initial tendencies and link them to promising bets. On the one hand, we recommend odds on Valencia and Cadiz to score more goals in the second half than in the first 45 minutes, and on the other hand, we can very well imagine that the home side will live up to their role as favourites. In combination with the Under 3.5, a 2.15 beckons for the aforementioned home victory.
Predicted line-up of Valencia:
Mamardashvili – Gaya, Özkacar, Cömert, Correia – Gonzalez, Musah, Almeida – Lino, Kluivert, Duro
Last matches played by Valencia:
Copa del Rey
04/01/2023 – La Nucia 0 – 3 Valencia
La Liga
31/12/2022 – Villarreal FC 2 – 1 Valencia
Club friendlies
22/12/2022 – Valencia 1 – 3 AZ Alkmaar
17/12/2022 – Valencia 1 – 2 Nottingham Forest
09/12/2022 – Clermont Foot 2 – 4 Valencia
Cadiz – Statistics & current form
Last season, Cadiz Club de Fútbol only just managed to stay in the league. 39 points were enough to stay in the league in 2021/22. In the current season, too, the southern Spanish team’s sole aim is to leave three teams behind them. The current standings underline the complexity of this task.
Only Elche, who are already bottom of the table, have fewer points than the Andalusians. With a record of only two wins, six draws and seven defeats, they are in penultimate place. Fortunately, their direct rivals from the lower midfield have not yet made up ground, so that a surprise win on Friday evening would definitely help them to jump into a non-relegation spot.
Cadiz degrading as the game progresses
However, for a prediction on the visiting team to pay off in the Valencia vs. Cadiz match, coach Sergio’s charges will have to improve a lot compared to their performance so far this season. Only the aforementioned last-place team in the table has a worse goal ratio. No other club scored fewer goals (ten) than the yellow-blue team. The long-suffering Cadiz also ranks second in the number of goals conceded.
The obvious physical deficiencies are obvious, as 20 of the 27 goals conceded came after half-time. In exactly two-thirds of all Cadiz matches, betting on a higher-scoring second half would have been crowned with success. On the road alone, nine of the 13 goals conceded came after the break, which gives us an additional argument to justify the odds for more goals in the second half between Valencia and Cadiz.
Predicted line-up of Cadiz:
Ledesma – Espino, Fali, Hernandez, Carcelén – Bongonda, Fernandez, Alcaraz, Ocampo – Sobrino, Negredo
Last matches played by Cadiz:
La Liga
31/12/2022 – Cadiz 1 – 1 Almeria
Club friendlies
17/12/2022 – Cadiz 3 – 0 AS Roma
14/12/2022 – Cadiz 3 – 4 Wolverhampton
08/12/2022 – Cadiz 4 – 2 Manchester United
01/12/2022 – Xerez 0 – 0 Cadiz
Valencia – Cadiz Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
26 times the clubs have faced each other in Spain’s top division. Half of these encounters went to Valencia. However, the last win was almost 20 years ago, as the Andalusians remained unbeaten against the Blanquinegros in their four most recent direct encounters in the last two seasons. There were two goalless draws in the previous season. In 2020/21, Cadiz won the home leg 2-1 and snatched another point in a 1-1 draw at the Estadio de Mestalla.
Valencia – Cadiz Tip
As coach of Valencia, you have to struggle almost daily with the fact that the high expectations, which are primarily due to the successful past, are not in particularly good proportion to reality. In the current season, the Blanquinegros are once again one of the disappointments in the Spanish top flight. Only occasionally can the former European Cup winners cause a sensation with brilliant performances.
On Friday evening, Gennaro Gatuso would probably be satisfied with just a work victory. But we don’t believe in footballing fireworks anyway, especially as the southern Spaniards have not lost any of their last four meetings against the bats and have recently made a more stable impression defensively than they did at the start of the season. There is therefore no value to be found between Valencia and Cadiz in the betting odds on the isolated home win.
