Do the Reds also dominate in the south of France?

After three matchdays in the Europa League, there are still exactly three teams with a 100% win rate. One of them is Liverpool Football Club, who can therefore secure an early ticket to the next round on Thursday evening as part of matchday four. The Reds will host French cup winners Toulouse, who they defeated 5-1 at home on Anfield Road two weeks ago. Coach Jürgen Klopp’s team are once again the heavy favorites for the second leg

In the run-up to the match between Toulouse and Liverpool, the betting tip on an away win is only offered at 1.47 at the top. The implied probability of occurrence is therefore 67%. In view of these very low three-way odds, however, there is no appealing value to be seen. This makes it all the more important to look at alternative betting markets or to predict the size/importance of LFC’s expected success. A surprise coup for “Les Violets” seems very unlikely in view of the latest results.

The “Scousers” are given by far the best chances of winning the title at Bet365 (@3.60). Bayer Leverkusen (@11.00) and AS Roma (@13.00), who are also the two clubs that have won all three of their previous group games in Europe’s second most important club competition alongside LFC, can also have high hopes. Ahead of the match between Toulouse and Liverpool, it seems reasonable to predict that the English top title contenders will continue their winning streak

Toulouse – statistics & current form

For Toulouse Football Club, it is a big deal to be able to play their own international game. 14 years after the purple-and-whites last qualified for the Europa League main competition, “Les TFC” secured their ticket for the current group stage by winning the French Cup in the previous season. After three matchdays, coach Carles Martínez’s team can even hope to advance to the intermediate round. They have four points to their name. Only the first leg against Liverpool was lost with 1:5. Toulouse did not lose at home against LASK (1:0) or at Royale Union SG (1:1).

Since second place in Group E will probably be decided in a direct duel between the French side and the Belgians, the upcoming match at home against the Reds has the character of a bonus game.

Toulouse’s recent performances have been poor

The fact that the odds clearly favor the visitors on Thursday evening between Toulouse and Liverpool is not only due to the obvious quality and experience advantages, but also to the downward form curve of “Les Violets”. Martínez’s side celebrated their last competitive win on October 5. This was followed by five matches without a win, three of which they even lost. At the weekend, they even snapped their seven-match unbeaten streak at home. TFC lost 2-1 to Le Havre and slipped to 14th place in the Ligue 1 standings.

In view of their disappointing form, the loss of confidence and the fact that they have only scored two or more goals of their own three times in 14 competitive matches this season, it is not worth placing a bet on the underdogs. Instead, it seems anything but unlikely that the South French side, who have conceded ten (!) goals in their three recent defeats in a row, will again lose by two or more goals in the highlight game against Klopp’s team.

Predicted Toulouse line-up:

Liverpool – Statistics & current form

Liverpool Football Club could have been one of THE winners of matchday 11 in the Premier League at the weekend. Three of the five teams in the top quintet lost their matches. Aston Villa were defeated by Nottingham Forest, Arsenal left the pitch as losers at Newcastle and Tottenham also lost out to Chelsea in a wild game on Monday evening. However, instead of taking advantage of the points dropped by their direct rivals to move up to second in the table, Klopp’s side were held to a disappointing 1-1 draw at promoted Luton Town.

However, the draw against the basement side was not necessarily a cause for concern, as the Reds merely failed to capitalize on their ruthless superiority and dominance. After the favorites fell 1-0 behind shortly before the end, it was Luis Diaz who provided the emotional highlight of the encounter. As a reminder, the Colombian’s parents were kidnapped the previous week. While Mama Diaz is now free again, his father is still in the hands of the guerrilla group ELN.

Liverpool dominate Group E at will

Now that LFC have failed to pick up three points in three Premier League away games in a row, they should at least manage a three-pointer away from home at international level. The chances of this happening are extremely good, as Klopp’s opponents, who are inferior in terms of quality, do not seem to be able to cope with their high pressing at all. On average, their opponents have managed just 6.6 passes before Liverpool win the ball back – the best figure in the Europa League. The opposition therefore lack the necessary pressure, which naturally plays into the Reds’ hands when it comes to power soccer.

The results underline just how dominant the third-placed team in the English Premier League has been in the European Cup so far. After trailing 1-0 at half-time, they overcame LASK 3-1, enjoyed a carefree 2-0 victory against Royale Union SG and we have already discussed the 5-1 win at home to Toulouse. All three victories came with the handicap (-1). Ten of the twelve wins in all competitions this season have been by at least two goals to one.

Incidentally, Diogo Jota got on the scoresheet in the last two games. In total, the Portuguese has scored eleven goals in 16 EL matches. Reason enough to consider a prediction for Jota as goalscorer between Toulouse and Liverpool

Predicted Liverpool line-up:

Toulouse – Liverpool head-to-head comparison / H2H record

The two teams faced each other for the first time in European competition in the first leg two weeks ago. Liverpool took the lead after nine minutes through Diogo Jota and extended it to 3:1 by half-time. Gravenberch, who has now scored at least one goal in all three EL matches in 2023/24, and Mo Salah made it 5-1 in the second half. Toulouse FC have now lost all three matches against English clubs in their international history

Toulouse – Liverpool betting tip

Liverpool have not won away to a French club in four European Cup matches. This dry spell will most likely be broken on Thursday evening. There is no doubt that the Premier League’s top club are the favorites against the out-of-form side from the south of France. This is also confirmed by the Toulouse vs Liverpool betting odds, which also paint a very clear picture and support the one-sided starting position.

To make matters worse for the home side, they have lost all of their last three competitive matches, conceding a total of ten goals, and have not won a single match in the last five. Although it can be assumed that Jürgen Klopp will once again rotate his squad and use the third English week in a row to send a mixed team onto the pitch, we have no doubt that the Reds will return from the Stade Municipal with three points. Incidentally, an away win would also be tantamount to progressing safely and early.

Because it should also be taken into account that the English side already had the upper hand in the first leg two weeks ago with 5:1 and have celebrated ten of their twelve wins this season with at least two goals difference, we tend to bet on the handicap (-1) in favor of the visitors between Toulouse and Liverpool. We have found a 2.15 at Interwetten, which we play with six units