Bournemouth’s next step towards the PL?
The season of the English Championship, the second highest division in the motherland of football, is slowly coming to an end. Only two regular match days are left on the programme. However, numerous matches have to be made up as well, so that we do not have a smoothed table at the moment. Regardless of how many matches the individual teams have played, AFC Bournemouth, a former first division team, currently has the best chance of making a direct return to the Premier League.
Second in the table, the Cherries are just two points clear of third, but still have two matches in hand. So if a bet on an away win pays off in Tuesday night’s clash between Swansea and Bournemouth, the lead will grow to five points. If Nottingham Forest, one of their fiercest rivals, also lose their parallel match at designated champions and promoted Fulham, Scott Parker’s team could clinch promotion next weekend.
For the home side, meanwhile, Tuesday night’s home game at the Liberty Stadium is almost purely statistical. The Welsh side are nine points off the relegation places. With three matches to go and more than a dozen teams ahead of the Swans in the standings, the train towards the Premier League has long since left the station. With this in mind, it is understandable that lower odds are being offered on the visitors’ treble between Swansea and Bournemouth.
Swansea – Statistics & current form
Swansea City’s season in the second-tier Championship can be described as average at best. Although hardly anyone expected the Welsh side to seriously challenge for promotion in the summer due to the high level of competition, the former first division club had certainly raised hopes of moving a little closer to the play-off places.
In purely mathematical terms, the Swans still have a chance of making it into the top six, but they will need nine points from the three remaining games as well as various other results from the competition. The probability of such a scenario is close to zero. Strictly speaking, the hosts are playing for the golden pineapple, which could have a negative impact on their performance. We wouldn’t make a prediction on the 14th in the table between Swansea and Bournemouth.
How about the Swans’ motivation?
Making matters worse, coach Russell Martin’s side have certainly struggled to show the consistency they need at home this season. With nine wins, seven draws and five defeats in 21 matches at the Liberty Stadium, the Swans rank only 17th in the home table.
Apart from that, the Welsh side have remained winless in their past three Championship matches. The most recent three matches all ended in draws. This extended their unbeaten run to eight games in a row. The fact that the odds on an away win between Swansea and Bournemouth still contain a reasonable value is partly due to the fact that Swansea already lost their last comparable home match against a top team like Fulham with 1:5. The implied loss of excitement adds to this.
Predicted Swansea line-up:
Fisher; Cabango, Naughton, Latibeaudiere; C Christie, Grimes, Downes, Manning; Piroe, Obafemi, Wolf
Last matches played by Swansea:
Championship
23/04/2022 – Swansea 1 – 1 Middlesboro
18/04/2022 – Reading 4 – 4 Swansea
15/04/2022 – Swansea 1 – 1 Barnsley
09/04/2022 – Swansea 2 – 1 Derby
06/04/2022 – Millwall 0 – 1 Swansea
Bournemouth – Statistics & current form
Bournemouth will play in the Premier League again in 2022/23. Although this is still a thesis that cannot be definitively verified, there are numerous arguments that speak exactly for it. As the current runners-up in the table, the Cherries have the best starting position in the fight for the second direct promotion spot. The former first division club is the only team with a return to the Premier League in its own hands. The next step is to be taken on Tuesday evening.
Coach Scott Parker’s team relied on their current lack of form and the momentum that is undoubtedly there. In the past ten league games, AFC have conceded only one defeat. Last weekend, the second-placed team earned a respectable 1-1 draw with Fulham, while Coventry were beaten 3-0 away from home the week before. A single goal conceded in their last four matches also underlines the defensive stability of the promotion hopefuls.
Bournemouth are strong away from home
On a positive note, only the mighty Whites from Fulham have celebrated more victories away from home than the Cherries. A whopping eleven of the 21 matches played to date in opposing stadiums have been victorious. With 15 goals conceded, Parker’s team also has the best away defence of all 24 second division teams.
That is one of the reasons why one can think about predicting a maximum of three goals between Swansea and Bournemouth. In 12 of AFC’s last 13 league games, a bet to that effect would have gone through.
Personnel-wise, coach Parker, who has a long history as a Premier League professional, will have to do without a number of players. Morgan Rogers, Jordan Zemura, Leif Davis, Kieffer Moore, Junior Stanislas and David Brooks are all unavailable. However, this will only play a minor role in the high motivation to put themselves in a superior position in the race for the second vacant promotion spot.
Predicted Bournemouth line-up:
Travers; Laird, Phillips, Kelly, Smith; R Christie, Cook, Lerma, Anthony; Solanke, Lowe
Last matches played by Bournemouth:
Championship
23/04/2022 – Bournemouth 1 – 1 Fulham
18/04/2022 – Coventry 0 – 3 Bournemouth
15/04/2022 – Bournemouth 0 – 0 Middlesboro
09/04/2022 – Sheffield United 0 – 0 Bournemouth
07/04/2022 – West Bromwich Albion 2 – 0 Bournemouth
Swansea – Bournemouth Direct comparison / H2H record
There have not been many meetings between these clubs. In the Premier League as well as in the Championship, the teams have faced each other a total of nine times. On six occasions, the Cherries came out on top. Swansea are still waiting for their first win in the top two divisions. The first-leg clash was a clear-cut affair in favour of the league runners-up, who prevailed 4-0 at home.
Swansea – Bournemouth Tip
As the Championship heads into the home stretch, the question of who will be promoted to the Premier League is traditionally a very exciting one. With Fulham, one returnee is already certain. Bournemouth could become the second club to make the direct leap into the top flight. In the event of a treble in Wales on Tuesday evening, it would probably only be a formality to defend second place until the end of the season.
This constellation has an impressive effect on the betting odds between Swansea and Bournemouth. The Cherries are the favourites, although odds of 2.00 at the top indicate a certain residual risk. This is mainly due to the fact that the Swans have not lost any of their last eight league games.
In our eyes, however, the away strength of the Parker team weighs more. Eleven wins in 21 away games equals an outstanding record in the Championship, which is enough for second place in the away table. Since the PL contenders have only lost one of their last ten league games, we are confident that they will get another win on Tuesday evening.
