Will BVB punch their ticket to the last 16?
For Dortmund Borussia, perhaps the most important match of the current season so far is on the agenda next Wednesday. In the direct duel with Sporting Lisbon, it’s all about a place in the Champions League round of 16. Because BVB won the first leg 1-0 in front of their home crowd, a draw in Portugal will be enough to put them in control on the final matchday.
This starting constellation logically plays into the Black and Yellows’ hands, especially since they have struggled several times in the recent past without top striker Haaland to bring the necessary offensive punch to the pitch. However, as the odds between Sporting Lisbon and Dortmund underline, the task will not be a walk in the park for the Bundesliga side, especially as the home side go into this match with the recommendation of six consecutive league victories.
Although the capitals have not had much to report in their European Cup history, especially against German opponents, a forecast between Sporting Lisbon and Dortmund on the three-way market is associated with many contingencies and consequently also with a risk that is difficult to calculate. This is one of the reasons why it is worth considering potential bets on the different goal markets.
Sporting Lisbon – Statistics & current form
Sporting Lisbon fans had to wait almost 20 years for their 19th championship in the Portuguese homeland. At the end of last season, the time had finally come. Thanks to a sensational round with only one defeat in 34 matches, the “Leões” deservedly took the national crown. For the first time since 2017/18, Sporting are back in the top flight of international football.
The fact that the Portuguese champions still have a chance of reaching the last 16 after four of six matchdays can certainly be considered a success. However, it has to be said that the six points collected so far only come from the two matches against the overstretched Besiktas. As is well known, the other two matches against Ajax and Dortmund were lost, against the first-named team even by a considerable margin.
Sporting still too green behind the ears for the “big” games?
With this in mind, the question must of course be allowed, whether the current second in the table is capable of defeating a very renowned European guest on Wednesday evening? If we look at the statistics, the question marks become even bigger, because after all, no other European football club has conceded more defeats against German clubs in the Champions League than Sporting Lisbon. Ten of the 13 matches against Bundesliga clubs were lost. And they conceded 32 goals!
The current form of coach Rúben Amorim’s team is also quite respectable. SCP have won six matches in a row in the league. What is particularly impressive is that five of these six victories have been achieved without conceding a goal. The defence, which after the heavy 1:5 defeat against Ajax on the first day of the CL has only conceded one goal in the last three matches, is without doubt the team’s showpiece.
Since the footballing approach is more of a wait-and-see and tactical one anyway, we don’t expect the hosts, knowing that a win is absolutely necessary, to go on the attack right from the start. Only as the game progresses is the Amorim eleven likely to gradually increase the risk, which is a valid argument to make when it comes to hinting at the odds for more goals in the 2nd half between Sporting Lisbon and Dortmund.
Predicted line-up of Sporting Lisbon:
Adan – Goncalo Inacio, Coates, Feddal – Pedro Porro, Joao Palhinha, Matheus Nunes, Matheus Reis – Pedro Goncalves, Paulinho, Sarabia
Last matches played by Sporting Lisbon:
Cup
11/18 2021 – Sporting CP 2 – 1 Varzim
Liga Portugal
11/07 2021 – Pacos de Ferreira 0 – 2 Sporting CP
Champions League Grp. C
11/03 2021 – Sporting CP 4 – 0 Beşiktaş
Liga Portugal
10/30 2021 – Sporting CP 1 – 0 Vitoria de Guimaraes
Liga Cup Group B
10/26 2021 – Sporting CP 2 – 1 Famalicao
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
On Wednesday night, what has been a decent season so far in terms of results could turn into a disappointing one from Dortmund’s point of view. Should the Black and Yellows lose their away match at Sporting by two or more goals, the train towards the last 16 would have left the station after the fifth matchday.
However, this admittedly rather pessimistic approach can also be reversed, because should Borussia leave the Portuguese capital with three points in their luggage, second place behind Ajax Amsterdam would no longer be in their grasp. Even in the event of a draw, there is much to suggest that the Bundesliga side will progress, especially as Rose’s side face Besiktas at home in a fortnight’ time, while Sporting, who will still be level on points, have to travel to Holland to conclude the group stage.
The Dortmund game looks a little more subdued at the moment
While BVB matches with Erling Haaland up front were usually characterised by plenty of goals and offensive spectacle, the balance in the game of the reigning DFB Cup winners has changed somewhat recently without the Norwegian.
The defence now deserves more focus, which is noticeable, among other things, in the fact that in the past five Bundesliga matches they have conceded relatively “only” five goals. Only one of these goals was conceded in the first half. In the Bundesliga, too, only two of the total number of goals conceded were in the first 45 minutes. Since coach Marco Rose’s team does not need to take any unnecessary risks due to its starting position, the forecast between Sporting Lisbon and Dortmund is for a low-scoring first half and more goals after the break.
In terms of personnel, the current Bundesliga runners-up, who struggled to a narrow 2-1 win over VfB Stuttgart on Saturday to close the gap on leaders Bayern to one point, will have to do without Mats Hummels in any case. In the 3-1 defeat against Ajax, the defender was unjustly sent off after a foul worthy of a maximum yellow card. The usual long-term injured players such as Morey, Reyna, Schulz, Wolf or Haaland are also still not an option.
Predicted line-up of Dortmund:
Kobel – Meunier, Akanji, Zagadou, Guerreiro – Dahoud – Brandt, Bellingham – Reus, Malen, T. Hazard
Last matches played by Dortmund:
1st Bundesliga
11/20 2021 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 1 VfB Stuttgart
11/06 2021 – RB Leipzig 2 – 1 Borussia Dortmund
Champions League Grp. C
11/03 2021 – Borussia Dortmund 1 – 3 Ajax Amsterdam
1st Bundesliga
10/30 2021 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 0 1. FC Köln
DFB Cup
10/26 2021 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 0 Ingolstadt
Sporting Lisbon – Dortmund Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
2016/17 and 2021/22 Sporting Lisbon and Borussia Dortmund have each been drawn into a Champions League group. In the three meetings so far, BVB have only ever won, always by exactly one goal. The first leg in the current season ended narrowly 1-0 for the Black and Yellows, who have never drawn in 13 encounters with Portuguese clubs (nine wins, four defeats). Also interesting: Only Galatasaray could defeat the multiple German champions in the top flight more often than Sporting.
Sporting Lisbon – Dortmund Tip
All football fans who keep up with BVB are looking forward to an important evening on Wednesday. The second leg between the two direct rivals Sporting Lisbon and Dortmund will take place. According to the betting odds, the visitors from the Ruhr area are slightly favoured, although we are likely to see a close match between equals, similar to the first leg, which ended 1:0 for the Bundesliga team.
Especially the interesting starting position has to be taken into account for a suitable bet. The fact is that the home team needs a win to pass the Rose team in the standings. That, in turn, should play into the Westphalians’ hands, who would keep their progress on matchday six in their own hands with just a draw.
But because it is too risky for us to place a bet on the three-way market, we have decided to bet between Sporting Lisbon and Dortmund that more goals will be scored in the second half than in the first. Especially in the early stages, both teams will be anxious not to fall behind. As the game progresses, the Portuguese will have to take more risks, which will inevitably create spaces for BVB.
It’s possible that the score will still be 0-0 at half-time, because both teams will certainly not take excessive risks in such an important direct duel.
