The WBA dream on the south coast of England to come true?

The semi-finals of the Championship Playoffs for the last vacant starting spot for the upcoming Premier League season have impressively shown just how much is at stake. Southampton and West Bromwich Albion played out a goalless draw, as did Leeds United and Norwich City. The second legs will therefore have to decide the outcome. The respective home teams now have the advantage as they aim to reach the final with their own fans behind them

The bookmakers take a similar view and are offering significantly lower odds for a home win ahead of Southampton’s second match against West Brom. At Betano, a top price of 1.83 can be picked up for a win after regular time. If the match ends in a draw and thus inevitably goes into extra time, a corresponding bet in the Bet365 app would be rewarded at maximum odds of 3.40.

Southampton – Statistics & current form

After a disastrous last season, which ended with a deserved relegation to the Championship, the Saints from Southampton are keen to rectify the operational accident immediately and achieve promotion again. The squad is certainly one of the crème de la crème in the English lower house. The fact that they ultimately only finished fourth after the regular season can therefore even be seen as a minor disappointment.

In the meantime, however, the port city on the south coast of England has come to terms with having to play the play-offs. The Red & Whites put in a good performance in the semi-final first leg last Sunday and deserved an even better result than the 0-0 draw in terms of chances and the xG value of 1.07. Nevertheless, the starting position ahead of the second leg is of course a very good one, especially as the Saints have been able to rely on their good performances at home for long stretches of this season

Only three second division teams have won more home games than the Saints

15 of the 23 matches played in front of a home crowd have been victorious (15-3-5). Only four of the last six games at Saint Mary’s Stadium have resulted in maximum points. Furthermore, only Leicester City have scored more goals at home than the Saints from the south of England. 54 goals in 23 attempts equates to a very strong average of well over two goals per home game.

If we adjust this value for the importance of the upcoming match in the playoffs, it might make sense to consider the odds for 1X & Under 3.5 between Southampton and West Brom. Especially as six of the last eight home games and eight of the last eleven competitive games involving Saints have resulted in three goals or less. There is much to suggest that Scottish coach Russell Martin’s team, who will still be without his compatriot Stuart Armstrong in midfield, will be successful at home. However, there is hope that Che Adams, who missed the first leg through injury, will be fit in time to complete the 36-goal attacking duo alongside Adam Armstrong.

Southampton’s expected line-up:
McCarthy – Harwood-Bellis, Bednarek, Stephens – Walker-Peters, Smallbone, Downes, Aribo, Manning – Adams, Armstrong

West Brom – Statistics & current form

West Bromwich Albion Football Club came close to losing their play-off ticket in the home straight of the main season. The team of Carlos Corberán, who has now been in charge of the Whites for a year and a half, not only lost three of their final four matches of the regular season, but also celebrated just two wins in the last nine competitive games. So the Throttles definitely can’t call the big momentum their own ahead of the upcoming second leg in Southampton

WBA want their first away win in over two months

A further aggravating factor is that the West Midlands outfit have been unable to produce the same performances away from home as they have in front of their own fans. Only six of their 21 wins this season have come away from home. WBA only occupy 14th place in the separate away table. The Baggies have not won away from home since mid-March. In fact, they have just one win in their last seven away games.

In view of the aforementioned figures, we think it is highly unlikely that the drought will come to an end on Friday evening of all nights and that the odds on a win for the Whites will pay off in the second leg between Southampton and West Brom. Instead, the poor away record provides a good argument for betting on a home win after regular time. At Betano Sportwetten we found a 1.83 at the top.

Alternatively, we would also take a closer look at a bet on the under 3.5 in connection with the quite prominent soccer club in the Birmingham area. In eight of the last ten competitive games involving WBA, including the most recent six matches, the ball has crossed the goal line no more than three times. Away from home, such a sub-3.5 approach would have been successful in 13 out of 17 cases. If you also take into account the important nature of this play-off match, a high-scoring spectacle with four or more goals in the course of the game seems almost utopian.

Predicted West Brom line-up:
Palmer – Furlong, Bartley, Kipre, Townsend – Yokuslu, Mowatt – Wallace, Diangana, Johnston -Thomas-Asante

Southampton – West Brom head-to-head / H2H record

A total of 48 meetings in the English top flight between these clubs are on the books. At second division level, they have only crossed paths on 26 occasions. Since the historical perspective is not really of interest, we will focus on the three most recent head-to-head meetings this season in which the Saints have made their mark. In the main round, Southampton won the first and second legs 2:1 and 2:0, while the play-off first leg four days ago ended in a goalless draw, as already mentioned. The odds of under 3.5 between Southampton and West Brom would have always been true

Southampton – West Brom betting tip

Which club can keep their hopes of reaching the final of the Championship play-offs and thus promotion to the Premier League? This question will be answered on Friday evening when Southampton and West Brom face off at St. Mary’s Stadium. The betting odds clearly swing the pendulum in favor of the home side, which is understandable given the various statistics.

The Saints, for example, are one of the best home teams in the league and have scored the second most goals in front of a home crowd. On the other hand, the Baggies are only 14th in the away table, have only ever celebrated six successes away from home and have also struggled with form problems in recent weeks. Their last away win, for example, dates back to March 10, 2024, making it difficult to imagine the Whites winning the away game in the south of England under these circumstances

Because it must also be taken into account that the Red & Whites won both main round games (2:1, 2:0) and also had a good chance of winning the 0:0 in the first leg a few days ago, we are convinced that the betting tip between Southampton and West Brom is 1X & Under 3.5.