Does Mourinho make himself immortal in the eternal city?

On Wednesday night, a Spanish and an Italian team will face each other in a European title final for the 14th time in history at the Puskás Aréna in Budapest. So far, the Spanish have won nine times and the Italians three. This time, too, the odds are slightly more in Sevilla’s favour against AS Roma, as the Andalusians have won all six of their previous Europa League finals and are the record winners of this competition.

The current momentum is also against the Giallorossi, who have won just one of their last nine competitive matches (five draws, three defeats). In the Europa League, on the other hand, the reigning Conference League winners have lost just two of their last eleven games (six wins, three draws), with Mourinho’s side not conceding more than one goal in any of those eleven matches. Accordingly, the forecast for Sevilla against AS Roma is for a low-scoring match.

From a German perspective in particular, the Giallorossi’s semi-final against Bayer Leverkusen was not too pretty to watch. However, the destructive defensive concept of the Italians worked out in the end and resulted in a 1-0 win after first and second legs. With these two games to nil, the Romans are already at six White Vests in the 2022/23 season in the Europa League. That is the best record in this competition.

Considering that Sevilla scored only three of their 13 Europa League goals on their way to the final in the first half, it could be a tough game, especially before the half-time break. Accordingly, there is a lot of value in betting that a maximum of two goals will be scored in regulation time in this final, in which extra time is also anything but unlikely.

Sevilla – Statistics & current form

Sevilla FC have only won the championship once at national level (1946) and the Copa del Rey five times (most recently in 2010). Internationally, however, the Rojiblancos have won a staggering six Europa Leagues, in which the team from Andalusia is the undisputed record winner.

If the Nervionenses were to win their seventh European final, only Real Madrid (14), Barcelona (12), AC Milan (nine), Liverpool (nine) and Bayern (eight) would have more overall victories in UEFA competitions than the Sevillistas.

Only eleventh in La Liga

At least the poor performance in La Liga, however, does not bode well for the Rojiblancos now achieving their seventh Europa League triumph. For much of the 2022/23 season, the Andalusians were in a relegation battle. One matchday before the end of the season, they were only eleventh in the table.

But this title is all the more important for José Luis Mendilibar’s team, who would otherwise not only be without a Champions League title next season, but also without any international competition at all.

Winless on foreign soil for four Europa League games

At the same time, their entry into the Europa League final was by no means straightforward. The Rojiblancos eliminated two absolute heavyweights in Manchester United and Juventus Torino. But of the eight knockout games on the way to the final, the Andalusians won only their four home games. None of the four matches away from home were won (two draws, two defeats).

Nevertheless, the odds are now slightly in favour of the experienced Nervionenses in Sevilla against AS Roma, who have scored 13 goals in their eight knockout games, but only three of those goals came in the first halves. However, five of the goals came from substitutes, which also makes the Spaniards a bit unpredictable.

AS Roma – Statistics & current form

Things have not been going too well for Associazione Sportiva Roma in Serie A of late either. Last year’s overall Conference League winners went winless in seven consecutive league games (four draws, three defeats) and slipped to sixth place with a meagre haul of just four points from a possible 21.

The Giallorossi can now only enter the top flight by winning the Europa League. Should Juventus even get past Mourinho’s team in a long-distance duel next weekend, only Conference League qualification would remain for 2023/24.

Only lost two of last eleven Europa League games

Accordingly, success in the Europa League has recently been clearly subordinated to performance in league play. Even at the weekend at Fiorentina (1:2), only a B-team was on the pitch.

Mourinho, who has won all five of his European finals as a coach and would now be the sole record winner among coaches with his sixth overall victory (he is currently the joint record winner with Trappatoni, who has also won five tournaments), is certainly justified in his international successes. The Giallorossi have lost only two of their last eleven Europa League games (six wins, three draws).

Six White Vests on their way to the final

It is particularly remarkable that the ice-cold and destructive defensive concepts of the starting coach worked so well. In the semi-final against Leverkusen (1-0 after first and second legs), the Italians remained without conceding a goal, which means they already have six White Vests to show for the 2022/23 season in the Europa League – a record.

This also speaks for our bet on Sevilla against AS Roma at under 2.5 goals, especially as the team from the eternal city has not conceded more than one goal per game in any of the last eleven Europa League games and has been correspondingly difficult to break down.

Sevilla – AS Roma Direct comparison / H2H-balance

Head to head: 1 – 0 – 0

Only once have the two teams faced each other in a competitive match. The Andalusians prevailed 2-0 over the Giallorossi on that occasion in the last 16 of the 2019/20 Europa League, a single match played on neutral ground due to the outbreak of the Corona pandemic.

Sevilla – AS Roma Tip

When it comes to Sevilla vs AS Roma, our prediction does lean towards an overall win for the Andalusians, who are known to have a knack for this competition. However, teams managed by José Mourinho, who has also never lost a European final, should not be underestimated per se, which is why bets on the outcome of the match are associated with high risks. For both teams, this competition is also the only opportunity to qualify for the Champions League.

We expect the Giallorossi to be as defensive and destructive as they were in the semi-final against Leverkusen. Accordingly, there is a lot of value in betting that a maximum of two goals will be scored in regulation time.