Final for the round of 16
Group G of the 2021/22 UEFA Champions League season was already described after the draw as a very balanced group with no real favourites. This assessment should prove true, as excitement is guaranteed ahead of the final group matchday.
All four teams have the chance to survive the winter in the UEFA Champions League in their own hands, but in a worst-case scenario there is also the threat of a total international knockout. In the city of Mozart, Red Bull Salzburg only need a point against Sevilla to make it into the Top 16.
It would not only be a historic success for the Bulls, but also for Austrian football. The last time a team reached the Top 16 in the most important club competition was in the 1990/91 season. Salzburg have already had two match points, now the big tremble begins. The Jaissle team cannot count on fan support, however, as fans are not allowed in Austria. The home side is at a competitive disadvantage compared to the other teams, but they will have to (be able to) deal with that.
The momentum is hardly in favour of the home side these days, as their recent performances have been manageable. Sevilla, on the other hand, are in strong form and an away win is by no means utopian. At the moment, the odds on the winner of the Red Bull Salzburg vs Sevilla match are even. The match kicks off at the empty Stadion Wals-Siezenheim on Wednesday evening at 9pm.
Red Bull Salzburg – Statistics & current form
Should Salzburg lose their home match against the Andalusians and VFL Wolfsburg celebrate a home win against OSC Lille, the international journey for Salzburg would end on Wednesday evening. A scenario that was unthinkable just a few weeks ago, as Salzburg already had one and a half legs in the knockout phase after three matchdays.
Third match ball for the Bullen eleven
The 1:2 away defeat at VFL Wolfsburg on matchday four was also the very first defeat as Bullen tamer for head coach Matthias Jaissle, who is only 33 years old. A defeat that certainly had an effect. Since that defeat, things have not gone according to plan in the city of Mozart. Even before that, Salzburg had been extremely successful, but the total dominance of the last few years (including several goal festivals) failed to materialise.
The defeat against the Wolves was followed by a draw against Flyeralarm Admira and a defeat against Austria Klagenfurt in the Bundesliga. In between these two games, the away game in Lille was lost and finally put Salzburg in trouble. As in the last two years, Salzburg now have a real final match on the last day of group play. After all, the Bullen eleven has the advantage this season and would advance with a draw.
A home win would have rarity value by all means, as in the eleven games against Spanish sides in the Champions/Europa League so far, Salzburg have only managed one victory – against Real Sociedad de San Sebastian in February 2018. That compares with just three defeats and seven draws.
Big personnel problems
The starting situation is further complicated by a number of personnel absences in the Bulls’ camp. Especially in the defence, important players are missing and Matthias Jaissle has to improvise. With defensive boss Maximilian Wöber, Bernardo, Albert Vallci and youngster Bryan Okoh, four defensive players are not available. In addition, Zlatko Junuzovic, Noah Okafor and Sekou Koita are also out. All in all, these are not ideal conditions and between Red Bull Salzburg and Sevilla, betting on a home win is risky.
Predicted line-up of Red Bull Salzburg:
Köhn – Ulmer, Onguene, Solet, Kristensen – Bernede, Sucic, Seiwald – Aaronson – Adeyemi, Sesko
Last matches played by Red Bull Salzburg:
Bundesliga
12/04 2021 – Salzburg 2 – 1 Hartberg
11/27 2021 – SK Austria Klagenfurt 2 – 1 Salzburg
Champions League Grp. G
11/23 2021 – Lille 1 – 0 Salzburg
Bundesliga
11/20 2021 – Salzburg 0 – 0 Admira Mödling
11/06 2021 – Austria Wien 0 – 1 Salzburg
Sevilla – Statistics & current form
Julen Lopetegui’s Andalusians have tended to be considered the strongest team in this group. However, the Spaniards were unable to prove these slight advantages in their first matches and had to settle for a draw in each of their first three group matches before suffering a defeat on matchday four.
First win on matchday five
After four games without a win, the important home victory against VfL Wolfsburg came a fortnight ago. Thanks to the 2-0 win, Sevilla still have a chance to stay in the top flight. Only four teams in the history of the CL have managed to advance after four matches without a win. Porto (2004/05), Stuttgart (20091/10), Manchester City (2014/15) and Atalanta Bergamo (2019/20) only reached the knockout phase as group runners-up. If Sevilla win in Salzburg and Lille lose at Wolfsburg, the Andalusians could even win the group, which would be a first in CL history.
A great hope is the Croatian Ivan Rakitic, who has had a hand in three of the five CL goals this season (two goals, one assist). And this despite the fact that he has only featured twice in the starting line-up of Lopetegui’s eleven.
General rehearsal successful
While Sevilla will be without top striker Youssef En-Nesyri due to injury, his replacement Rafa Mir has been impressive in recent weeks. Last weekend, however, he failed to score a goal, but the Andalusians still had a good dress rehearsal. In the duel of the Champions League participants, they managed a narrow but deserved 1:0 home victory against the reigning Europa League winners Villarreal.
With 31 points, the Spaniards are currently in second place in the domestic LaLiga and can look back on a very good autumn. Especially the experience on the international stage clearly speaks for the guests. Sevilla has already successfully played many “big games”. A quality that cannot be conceded to Salzburg. Therefore, the pendulum between Red Bull Salzburg and Sevilla swings more in the direction of the tip on the guests.
Predicted Sevilla line-up:
Bono – Acuna, Diego Carlos, Kounde, Montiel – Rakitic, Fernando Reges, Jordan – Papu Gomez, Mir, Ocampos
Last matches played by Sevilla:
LaLiga
12/04 2021 – Sevilla 1 – 0 Villarreal FC
Copa del Rey
12/01 2021 – Cordoba 0 – 1 Sevilla
LaLiga
11/28 2021 – Real Madrid 2 – 1 Sevilla
Champions League Grp. G
11/23 2021 – Sevilla 2 – 0 Vfl Wolfsburg
LaLiga
11/20 2021 – Sevilla 2 – 2 Deportivo Alaves
Red Bull Salzburg – Sevilla Direct comparison / H2H record
The two teams faced each other for the first time in the 2008/09 Europa League season. On that occasion, the Andalusians were outclassed by the team from the city of Mozart and celebrated a 2-0 victory both at home and away. The first leg in the current CL season ended in a 1-1 draw. Basically a strong result for the Bullen, but absolutely disappointing in view of the course of the game. Salzburg missed two penalties and thus lost an away win at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan Stadium carelessly.
Red Bull Salzburg – Sevilla Tip
Because of the starting situation, the home side can take a wait-and-see approach and strengthen their defence first. There will be high pressing, but the defence will by no means be ignored. Most recently, however, Salzburg have not been at all stable and their forward momentum has also left much to be desired. The historic place in the last 16 of the CL is on very shaky ground.
The Spanish guests are extremely strong and will certainly be able to pose big problems for the recently weakening Salzburg defence. Goalkeeper Köhn is also not the outstanding back-up that is probably needed in such a game. For Red Bull Salzburg against Sevilla, the prediction on the guests certainly has great value to offer, which is why a six-unit bet is also recommended for this. Should the deficit occur, Salzburg will have to significantly strengthen their offensive and therefore bets on the “Both-to-Score” and the “Over 2.5” are also recommended.
