Will the Pirates score in the Basque Country?
For a long time, Cadiz already looked like certain relegation candidates. Then, however, the Pirates lost only three of their last twelve league games and climbed back above the top flight in the course of a remarkable recovery. With another treble, the Andalusians could now even jump up to 15th place.
Meanwhile, Real Sociedad are squandering the good position they have enjoyed for so long. The Basques, who were on course for the Champions League for long stretches, have picked up only two of a possible twelve points from their last four games and are now only sixth. Nevertheless, the odds are clearly in favour of the home side ahead of the clash between Real Sociedad and Cadiz.
It is striking that both opponents show deficits in the offensive performance data. The Basques have scored just 34 goals in their 35 league games so far. The guests from Andalusia have even scored only 33 goals. Both teams scored on average less than one goal per league match.
Consequently, the best value is to bet on Real Sociedad against Cadiz to score less than 2.5 goals, which takes into account the lack of offensive penetration of both teams.
Real Sociedad – Statistics & current form
Real Sociedad de Fútbol secured the overall victory in the 2020 Copa del Rey last year retrospectively, celebrating their first title win in 23 years. At the same time, the Basques also narrowly missed qualifying for the Champions League in La Liga, finishing fifth in the final table.
The face of the success is the Basque coach Imanol Alguacil, under whom a new attack on the top four should be undertaken in the 2021/22 season. For a long time, Erreala was fully on course for this endeavour. As recently as matchday 24, the Txuri-Urdin (in German: die Weiß-Blauen) were in fourth place for the last time.
Only two points out of a possible twelve from the last four games
Since then the Basques, who at the time also failed to beat RB Leipzig in the Europa League intermediate round, have increasingly fallen off the rails. Only five of the last twelve league games could be won (three draws, four defeats).
In the last three weeks in particular, not much has gone right. From the last four games in La Liga, the Txuri-Urdin have picked up only two points out of a possible twelve, which means that Real Sociedad, sixth in the table with three matchdays to go, only have a theoretical chance of reaching the top flight.
In 17 home games, just 19 goals were scored in total
However, neither the Europa League nor the Conference League are in the bag yet. The Basques could also lose the right to play in these competitions if their recent slump does not end quickly.
It is striking that Erreala scored no more than one goal of their own in 16 of the 17 home games in La Liga. Although the Imanol team has the best home defence in La Liga with only seven goals conceded in its own stadium, it also has the weakest home attack of all 20 first division teams with only twelve goals. Accordingly, the bet on Real Sociedad against Cadiz is under 2.5 goals.
Predicted line-up of Real Sociedad:
Remiro – Rico – Le Normand – Zubeldia – Gorosabel – Rafinha – Zubimendi – Merino – Silva – Isak – Sörloth
Last matches played by Real Sociedad:
07/05/2022 – Levante 2 – 1 Real Sociedad
01/05/2022 – Rayo Vallecano 1 – 1 Real Sociedad
22/04/2022 – Real Sociedad 0 – 1 FC Barcelona
16/04/2022 – Real Sociedad 0 – 0 Real Betis
10/04/2022 – Elche 1 – 2 Real Sociedad
Cadiz – Statistics & current form
After 14 years in the lower divisions, Cadiz Club de Fútbol returned to La Liga in the summer of 2020. There, the Pirates finished their first season far from any relegation worries in twelfth place in the final table, before entering a difficult second season.
For a long time it looked as if the small club from Andalusia would not be able to stay in the top flight of Spanish football and would have to be relegated again in the second year. In the home stretch of the season, however, the yellow-blue team managed to turn the corner once again.
Only three defeats in the last twelve league games
Lately, Cadiz have lost just three of their last twelve league games, collecting 17 points out of a possible 36 in that period – including 1-0 wins over Barcelona and Villarreal and, most recently, a hard-fought 1-1 draw at Sevilla FC.
The Pirates have thus made an impressive comeback in the relegation battle. The Andalusians have finished five of the last six matchdays above the line. Coach Sergio’s players go into the third-last matchday with a three-point lead over RCD Mallorca.
Always scored in twelve of the 15 league games under Sergio
Sergio, who took over as coach of the yellow and blue team in January, has been able to revitalise the previously tame attack. With only 33 goals from 35 league games, the Pirates still have the fourth weakest attack in La Liga.
But at least in twelve of the 15 league games under Sergio, they always scored at least one goal of their own. The only exceptions were three goalless draws, in which the Andalusians could live well with a point. At the Anoeta Stadium, however, the fourth-last team in the table will be the outsiders.
Predicted line-up of Cadiz:
Ledesma – Espino – Fali – Hernández – Akapo – Idrissi – Fernández – Mari – Alejo – Pérez – Negredo
Last matches played by Cadiz:
07/05/2022 – Cadiz 3 – 0 Elche
30/04/2022 – Sevilla FC 1 – 1 Cadiz
22/04/2022 – Cadiz 2 – 3 Athletic Bilbao
19/04/2022 – FC Barcelona 0 – 1 Cadiz
09/04/2022 – Cadiz 1 – 2 Real Betis
Real Sociedad – Cadiz Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 16 – 11 – 6
There have been a total of 33 meetings between the two teams so far and Real Sociedad lead the direct comparison with 16 victories. Especially recently, the duel has been clearly in the hands of the Basques, who have won all of their last five competitive matches against Cadiz – including the first leg in Andalusia with 2:0.
Real Sociedad – Cadiz betting tips
For Real Sociedad against Cadiz, our prediction is largely influenced by the offensive deficits of both teams. In 17 league games at the Anoeta Stadium, the Basques have scored just twelve goals of their own (a league-wide negative) while conceding only seven. In no other stadium did they score as few goals as they did here. This fits in well with the Andalusians’ occasional lack of penetrating power, and with 33 league goals they have the fourth weakest attack in La Liga.
It is accordingly consistent to bet on under 2.5 goals in this match.