Can Leipzig achieve the impossible?

It’s hard to argue how the first leg between RB Leipzig and Real Madrid would have gone if Benjamin Sesko’s header in the early stages had given the Bundesliga side a possible 1-0 lead. However, because the goal was disallowed for unclear and, above all, incorrect reasons, the Whites ultimately prevailed 1-0 thanks to a stroke of genius from Brahim Diaz. The starting position for the eight-time Champions League winners therefore looks very comfortable, as a draw in front of their home crowd at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu on Wednesday evening will be enough to secure their place in the quarter-finals.

However, the central players have by no means given up. Coach Marco Rose’s team undoubtedly have the attacking potential to cause problems for Madrid at their home ground. Especially if the Galactic side are as susceptible and unfocused as they have been recently at national level. Nevertheless, it takes a certain amount of imagination and a willingness to take risks to bet on one of the hottest favorites to lift the trophy in the second leg of the round of 16 between Real Madrid and RB Leipzig

The upcoming match between RB Leipzig and Real Madrid will see two attack-minded teams go head-to-head.

Real Madrid – Statistics & current form

For those who think they’ve seen it all in soccer, Saturday evening in Spain’s La Liga proved them wrong. In Real Madrid’s away game at Valencia, the referee simply blew his whistle in the middle of a cross that sailed in and was headed in by Jude Bellingham, causing a real scandal. The former Dortmund player was unable to calm down afterwards and was sent off with a red card for an insult he was accused of.

Incidentally, the match ended 2:2, with the Whites extending their lead over Girona by a further point. Coach Ancelotti’s team now have a seven-point cushion and are well on their way to winning the Spanish championship. This is despite the fact that the league leaders have only won two of their last five league games (2-3-0) and have conceded at least one goal in five of their last eight matches in the Spanish top flight.

Real Madrid without a blemish in the top flight

On Wednesday evening, however, the focus will clearly shift to the UEFA Champions League, in which the Whites have not made a dent so far this season. They have won all six group games and the first leg of the round of 16. If the second leg between Real Madrid and RB Leipzig proves to be another one of the galactic side’s predictions, it would be tantamount to a new club record. The madridistas had already recorded seven consecutive victories in the top flight in 2014/15 – also under Ancelotti. However, they have never won eight in a row in Europe’s premier club competition!

Strictly speaking, however, they don’t even need a win, as a draw would be enough to progress. The savvy Spaniards will therefore opt for a controlled approach and rely primarily on their outstanding transitional play. Thanks to the outstanding individual quality in attack, Ancelotti’s team are always able to exploit the spaces that inevitably present themselves. Vinicius Jr, Rodrygo and Bellingham are goalscoring threats personified and generally don’t need many chances to immortalize themselves on the scoreboard. This is one of the reasons why we are checking the odds for at least one goal in both halves ahead of the Real Madrid v RB Leipzig match.

Finally, let’s take a look at the personnel situation, which has eased somewhat of late. However, two regular central defenders, Alaba and Militao, are still out. DFB star Antonio Rüdiger has returned from injury and is expected to form the center of the back four on Wednesday evening together with substitute defender Tchouameni. Andriy Lunin, who put in a strong performance in the first leg with eight saves, will continue to keep goal. Apart from that, Don Carlo can virtually draw on a full squad.

Predicted Real Madrid line-up:

RB Leipzig – Statistics & current form

RB Leipzig are looking forward to one of the biggest challenges that international club soccer has to offer. This is, of course, an away game at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu against Real Madrid. However, the challenge is made even more ultimate by the fact that the Saxons must make up a 0:1 deficit from the first leg in order to continue their Champions League adventure in 2023/24. The bookmakers are therefore treating the Bundesliga club as clear underdogs

If we take the performance from the first leg as a benchmark, there is definitely hope, as the underdogs put up a very good fight against the multiple title winners from Madrid in front of their own fans, but ultimately came away empty-handed. That is precisely why head coach Marco Rose’s team must now find a good balance between risk-taking and patience. An early goal should be prevented with all their might, even if it is not necessarily in the DNA of the Bundesliga fifth-placed team to focus on defense at the moment

RB Leipzig can only win the game on offense

This is also underlined by the statistics, which show that the last time the Central City side conceded a goal away from home at national level was on September 23, 2023 (!). Just two clean sheets in the nine competitive matches so far in the 2024 soccer year also speak for themselves. In addition, the goalkeeping duo of Blaswich/Gulacsi had to make at least one save in all seven CL matches. In total, 3.42 goals were scored per RB match in the top flight, which in turn can be used as an argument for a supposedly high-scoring second leg of the round of 16.

However, the fact that the DFB Cup winners of the last two seasons have not won any of their last six knockout matches in the UEFA Champions League (0-1-5) makes the tough task in Madrid, which was actually covered in snow at the weekend, even more difficult. In the two most recent cases in which the Bulls lost in the round of 16 in the CL, they also finished in the last 16 – against Manchester City in the previous season and Liverpool FC in 2020/21.

Coach Marco Rose currently has hardly any significant personnel concerns. Only the absence of Lukas Klostermann in the middle of the defense hurts. Alongside defensive anchor Willi Orban, the soccer coach must therefore opt for young Lukeba or Simakan. In attack, we don’t think it’s out of the question that the former Dortmund player will line up his four best weapons – Sesko, Olmo, Simons and Openda – from the start, thus sending out an immediate signal to the Madrilenians. The Central City side definitely don’t want to hide at the Bernabéu!

Predicted line-up for RB Leipzig:

Real Madrid – RB Leipzig head-to-head comparison / H2H result

This is the fourth time the two teams have faced each other since the start of last season. In the 2022/23 group stage, the home team came out on top each time. RB Leipzig won 3:2, Real Madrid 2:0, while the first leg of the round of 16 ended in a 1:0 victory for the Madrilenians, who prevailed in a completely even match thanks to a goal from Brahim Diaz and a mixture of luck, cleverness and intelligence.

Although the ball only crossed the goal line once in the first leg, Real Madrid’s clash against RB Leipzig on Wednesday evening is likely to be a high-scoring affair. On the one hand, (many) more goals could have been scored three weeks ago if both sides had made better use of their chances. On the other hand, the constellation and the generally offensive approach of the clubs invites you to bet on one or two goals

Real Madrid – RB Leipzig betting tip

In 19 out of 20 cases in which Real Madrid have won the first leg of a Champions League knockout round tie, the Whites have gone on to progress. The omens ahead of Wednesday evening’s second leg in the round of 16 of the CL therefore seem clear. Anything other than a quarter-final appearance for the La Liga leaders from the Spanish capital would be a huge sensation, and there are currently not many signs of that happening. This is also confirmed by the Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig betting odds, which are quite clearly in favor of the Whites.

In principle, we agree with this assessment, but raise a warning finger and point out that the visitors from Saxony have plenty of quality in attack and that the Galactic side have also recently had problems keeping things tight defensively. In order to reconcile these approaches, it may be a conceivable approach to bet on the 1X & Both will score. Bwin is offering 1.88 at the top for this.

Meanwhile, less risk-averse bettors could opt for lower odds. Between Real Madrid and RB Leipzig, for example, we are pushing the bet that at least one goal will be scored in both halves, regardless of which side scores. The defenses of both teams do not look stable, the first leg was – despite only one goal – peppered with many penalty area scenes and the starting position also suggests a lively game. The highest odds are 1.52 and we are playing with five units