Will we see the offensive spectacle 2.0?
Carlo Ancelotti made history at the weekend! Thanks to the fixed championship in the Spanish La Liga, the Italian has now become the first coach ever to win the title in all five top leagues in Europe. However, the royals don’t really have much time to celebrate, as Real Madrid face Manchester City on Wednesday evening for a place in the 2022 Champions League final.
The Galactics have a mammoth task ahead of them in the semi-final second leg, as the spectacular first leg a week ago ended 4:3 for the Citizens. This is only the second time in the history of the top flight that seven goals have been scored in a single match in the preliminary round. For the eagerly awaited second clash between Real Madrid and Manchester City, the odds once again point to a goal or two.
However, this assessment is quite daring, because it seems unlikely that the defensive lines of both teams will be so vulnerable again. Especially the Sky Blues of coach Pep Guardiola will probably not take as many risks as in front of the home crowd.
Instead, they will try to control the game with the help of their usual dominance of possession and, in the second step, achieve at least the necessary draw. Inevitably, spaces for counter-attacks will then arise in the course of the second half. It may therefore be advisable not to jump on the bandwagon of those betting experts who are predicting many goals in the course of the game between Real Madrid and Manchester City.
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
Real Madrid already achieved their first goal of the season last weekend. Thanks to a commanding 4-0 home win over Espanyol Barcelona, the capital city side were able to take their first match point and wrap up the championship. With four matchdays to go, the lead over FC Barcelona is a whopping 15 points, so that thanks to five consecutive league victories in Madrid, everything is mathematically fixed.
The focus now suddenly turns to the Champions League, where the royals will try to achieve something they have never done before on Wednesday evening. In none of the five semi-finals in the top flight in which the “white ballet” has lost in the first leg so far did they reach the final. They have, however, reached the final in previous rounds, for example in this season’s round of 16 against Paris St. Germain.
Will the defence be duped again?
Despite this, it is understandable that the odds on Ancelotti’s side reaching the final are relatively high ahead of the second leg between Real Madrid and Manchester City. The former Bayern coach, of all people, could be the sticking point, however, as the Italian has never lost three Champions League matches in a row in his long career. After the defeat in the quarter-final second leg against Chelsea and the aforementioned 3:4 against City the previous week, that is exactly what threatens to happen.
The fact is that the longer the game goes on, the more the Galactics will have to take risks to make up the deficit. This, in turn, could have a negative effect on their own defensive stability, especially when you consider that the newly-crowned Spanish champions have not been able to play to nil in any of their five knockout matches so far.
Ten goals conceded in these five matches underline the problems in their own defensive behaviour, which also flashed up from time to time in the league – for example in the 0:4 against Barcelona or in the narrow 3:2 win against Sevilla. A goal of their own will probably not be enough to book them tickets for the final at the Stade de France. Consequently, we can imagine betting on double chance X2 between Real Madrid and Manchester City in combination with a maximum of one goal for the hosts.
You can rely on Benzema
The only reason not to, goes by the name of Karim Benzema and is having the season of his life. The Frenchman has already scored nine goals in the knockout phase of the current CL round alone! Only Cristiano Ronaldo scored more often in knockout games in 2016/17 (ten).
On Wednesday, Benzema will lead his team onto the pitch and do everything in his power to ensure that Real do not concede three CL defeats in a row for the second time in their own club history. Whether David Alaba will be able to play in this endeavour will probably only be decided in the short term. The defender is still struggling with muscular problems. Casemiro, on the other hand, seems ready for action again. At the weekend, the Brazilian was in the starting eleven, unlike Benzema, Kroos, Vinicius, Carvajal or Mendy, who were spared.
Predicted Real Madrid line-up:
Courtois; Carvajal, Militao, Alaba, Mendy; Kroos, Casemiro, Modric; Rodrygo, Benzema, Vinicius Jr
Last matches played by Real Madrid:
La Liga
30/04/2022 – Real Madrid 4 – 0 Espanyol
Champions League Final
27/04/2022 – Manchester City 4 – 3 Real Madrid
La Liga
21/04/2022 – Osasuna Pamplona 1 – 3 Real Madrid
18/04/2022 – Sevilla FC 2 – 3 Real Madrid
Champions League Final
13/04/2022 – Real Madrid 2 – 3 Chelsea FC
Manchester City – Statistics & current form
For years Manchester City have been trying to win the Champions League. So far, the reigning English champions have always failed in this endeavour. Currently, the Himmelblauen are making their next attempt, which – similar to last season – could lead them to the final. If you look at some of the statistics, there is much to suggest that the Citizens will once again be fighting for the trophy in Paris at the end of May.
For example, in nine out of ten cases in which City have won the first leg of a knockout tie in the top flight, they have also progressed to the next round. Apart from that, last year’s finalists, who could become only the fourth English team ever to reach back-to-back title games in Europe’s premier club competition, have now won three in a row against Real Madrid. Only Ajax Amsterdam and FC Bayern have beaten the record holders four times in a row
Is City taking it easy like in the rounds before?
Adding to the positive flow of recent weeks. Guardiola’s eleven have won all of their last four competitive games, scoring an impressive 16 goals in the process. Guardiola himself, by the way, is a real Real expert. Only a certain Ottmar Hitzfeld was able to celebrate more CL victories against the royals in his coaching career (seven) than Pep (four). The Catalan even celebrated two of the four victories at the Bernabéu – in 2011 with Barcelona and in 2020 with Manchester City.
From a purely tactical point of view, it can be assumed that the Citizens will be a little more defensive. This, in turn, does not necessarily have to have an effect on the share of possession, but can also take the form of a less risky remaining defence. Already in the round of 16 and quarter-finals, the Sky Blues struggled to a goalless draw in the second legs against Sporting and Atletico Madrid. If we take these matches as a blueprint for the upcoming clash, the prediction of a maximum of three goals in the course of the match between Real Madrid and Manchester City is worth considering.
Can Cancelo get to grips with Vinicius Jr?
Similarly to Carlo Ancelotti, Pep Guardiola took advantage of his deep squad at the weekend and brought in some fresh players. De Bruyne, Zinchenko, Silva or Mahrez were spared but should return to the starting eleven on Wednesday night.
The former Bayern coach can also call on right-back Joao Cancelo again. The Portuguese was suspended in the first leg, so Vinicius Jr. made a very strong impression on the left offensive side. With the regular back four on board, we are convinced that the Galactics will not get as many offensive chances as they did last Tuesday.
Predicted Manchester City line-up:
Ederson; Cancelo, Dias, Laporte, Zinchenko; Silva, Rodri, De Bruyne; Mahrez, Jesus, Foden
Last matches played by Manchester City:
Premier League
30/04/2022 – Leeds 0 – 4 Manchester City
Champions League Final
27/04/2022 – Manchester City 4 – 3 Real Madrid
Premier League
23/04/2022 – Manchester City 5 – 1 Watford
21/04/2022 – Manchester City 3 – 0 Brighton
FA Cup
16/04/2022 – Manchester City 2 – 3 Liverpool FC
Real Madrid – Manchester City Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
For the eighth time, Real Madrid and Manchester City will face each other in the Champions League on Wednesday. All meetings date back to 2012/13, with the Citizens leading the head-to-head comparison with four wins, two draws and two defeats. However, only one of the three away games at the Bernabéu was won (two defeats). Also interesting: In only two of the eight duels mentioned, the bet on the over 3.5 would have been correct. Only in two of the eight cases did Real Madrid score more than one goal in the match.
Real Madrid – Manchester City Tip
The first leg the previous week was unrivalled in terms of spectacle and top-class attacking football. The spectators saw seven goals in an exciting exchange of blows. Things should not be quite so wild in the second leg. Both coaches will have addressed their teams’ defensive mistakes, so we don’t expect a goal festival this time.
We think it is more likely that the Citizens will have more control on Wednesday and will do everything to stay without conceding a goal for as long as possible. They did the same in the last 16 and quarter-finals, where a 0-0 draw was enough for Guardiola’s side to progress to the next round. Given the impressions we have gathered and the fact that the Sky Blues can once again call on Joao Cancelo as their starting right-back, we’re putting our money on England reaching the final.
But because there is no value in the betting odds on the favourite to reach the final in the Real Madrid vs Manchester City second leg, we have decided to combine two other betting markets. On the one hand, we believe that De Bruyne and Co. will not lose out after 90 minutes. On the other hand, we believe in a maximum of one Real goal.
