Will Real Madrid reclaim the top spot?
The Spanish capital will host a highly anticipated derby on Monday evening. Rayo Vallecano host reigning Champions League winners and La Liga champions Real Madrid in front of their home crowd.
Although on paper, of course, much points in the direction of the qualitatively superior visitors, the Ancelotti eleven should by no means take the task in Madrid’s Vallecas district lightly.
In order to make the right bet between Rayo Vallecano and Real Madrid, it is important to bear in mind that the home side, currently ninth in the standings, are playing a very solid round and are also difficult to beat in front of their own fans. The Bukaneros have lost only one of their first five home games this season.
Admittedly, however, it is still our first approach to make a prediction on the away win before the city duel Rayo Vallecano vs. Real Madrid. After the disappointing 1-1 draw at home against Girona the previous week, and considering that their hottest title rivals from Barcelona could already go ahead with a three-pointer on Saturday, it is about nothing else for the white ballet than regaining the top of the table. They will pursue this goal with all their might.
Rayo Vallecano – Statistics & current form
Thanks to relegation in 2020/21 in Spain’s second-tier football league, Rayo Vallecano made their comeback to La Liga in pre-season. With a twelfth-place finish after 38 match days and a largely carefree season, those responsible were ultimately very satisfied. In 2022/23, the top priority of coach Andoni Iraola and his team is to collect points against relegation as quickly as possible and to secure a mid-table position early on.
So far, this endeavour has worked out very well. In ninth place, just four points behind sixth and with a seven-point cushion on the relegation zone, Rayo can undoubtedly be described as one of the positive surprises of the season so far. Especially in the last few weeks, the Bukaneros have been convincing on a regular basis.
Rayo go into the city duel with a broad chest
The red and whites have not lost for four league games now. After two draws against Getafe and Atletico Madrid, they even managed a convincing 5:1 home win against Cadiz and an away triumph at FC Sevilla. The record of three wins, two draws and only one defeat in the past six matches can definitely be used as an argument to justify why the odds on the away win between Rayo Vallecano and Real Madrid are 1.65 at the top.
Apart from that, the home strength should also be mentioned. Three of the previous five home games were won. Only four league rivals have conceded fewer goals at home than Iraola’s team. Only RCD Mallorca have been able to score more than one goal in the Vallecas district of Madrid.
As the Franjirrojos have only failed to score on three occasions so far this season, it may be worth considering the odds on both teams scoring in the city clash between Rayo Vallecano and Real Madrid. Andres Martin and Jose Angel Pozo have to miss the match due to injury. Raul de Tomas is not eligible to play until the beginning of January after his transfer episode in the summer. At least Falcao, Nteka and Trejo will probably return to the squad.
Predicted line-up of Rayo Vallecano:
Dimitrievski; Balliu, Lejeune, Catena, F Garcia; Comesana, Valentin; Palazon, Trejo, A Garcia; Camello
Last matches played by Rayo Vallecano:
La Liga
29/10/2022 – Sevilla FC 0 – 1 Rayo Vallecano
22/10/2022 – Rayo Vallecano 5 – 1 Cadiz
19/10/2022 – Atletico Madrid 1 – 1 Rayo Vallecano
15/10/2022 – Rayo Vallecano 0 – 0 Getafe
08/10/2022 – Almeria 3 – 1 Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
Light and shadow were close together in the past week at Real Madrid. First, the royals disappointed in La Liga by only managing a sobering 1-1 draw at home against promoted Girona. But then Vini Jr. and Co. got rid of their frustration in the Champions League and celebrated a 6:1 victory over Celtic Glasgow, which secured them the group win.
But because FC Barcelona won their home game against Almeria on Saturday, as expected, Ancelotti’s team has temporarily dropped to second place in the table. Only if a prediction of an away win between Rayo Vallecano and Real Madrid on Monday night at the conclusion of Matchday 13 proves correct would the reigning title holders return to the top spot.
Real Madrid and the art of narrow victories
One of the factors in favour of a treble for the star ensemble from the capital is the fact that the white ballet has extremely rarely gone without a win in two consecutive league games against glaring underdogs in the past. In addition, Real have won all six of their matches so far this season and have scored 15 goals in the process.
However, there have hardly been any high victories. More often than not, they have conceded a goal. In ten of twelve league games, keeper Courtois or his deputy Lunin had to make exactly one save. But they never conceded more than one goal. The mark of three own goals was also exceeded only twice, which is why we do not automatically exclude another betting option on ‘Win Real & Under 4.5’ with our recommendation on ‘Both score’. Both are possible. Therefore, 2:1 or 3:1 from the point of view of Carlo Ancelotti’s team are the most likely match outcomes.
After Toni Kroos was sent off shortly before the end of the previous week with a yellow card, the 2014 World Cup winner now has to serve a one-match suspension. Tchouameni and Hazard were spared during the week and are therefore set to return. The same goes for Karim Benzema, who has been plagued by minor ailments of late but will start up front on Monday.
Predicted Real Madrid line-up:
Courtois; Carvajal, Militao, Rudiger, Alaba; Modric, Tchouameni, Camavinga; Valverde, Benzema, Vinicius
Last matches played by Real Madrid:
Champions League Grp. F
03/11/2022 – Real Madrid 5 – 1 Celtic Glasgow
La Liga
30/10/2022 – Real Madrid 1 – 1 Girona
Champions League Grp. F
26/10/2022 – RB Leipzig 3 – 2 Real Madrid
La Liga
23/10/2022 – Real Madrid 3 – 1 FC Sevilla
20/10/2022 – Elche 0 – 3 Real Madrid
Rayo Vallecano – Real Madrid Direct comparison / H2H record
The direct comparison reads devastating from the Bukaneros’ point of view. The city rivals have met 38 times so far in Spain’s top flight. Real Madrid have had the upper hand on 30 occasions. On the other hand, Rayo have won five and drawn only three.
19 of the last 20 (!) head-to-head meetings in La Liga have gone to the Galacticos, who twice narrowly prevailed in pre-season. They won 2-1 at home and 1-0 away from home, and these are the results we should be looking to on Monday
Rayo Vallecano – Real Madrid Tip
Two days after FC Barcelona pulled ahead in the Primera Division title fight in Spain with a win, Real Madrid now have the chance to move back past their Catalan arch-rivals in the standings. The prerequisite for this is an away win. However, the journey is very short, as it is only a few kilometres to the Madrid district of Vallecas.
However, it will not be a walk in the park for the Royals, especially as Rayo have had a strong season so far, picking up eight points from their last four matches and losing only one of their five home games this season. Their record against their big neighbours, however, reads catastrophic, with 19 defeats from their past 20 encounters.
We therefore believe that betting on an away win between Rayo Vallecano and Real Madrid will pay off.
Alternatively, it is definitely worth considering combining the away win betting odds with the under 4.5 before the Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid match. A bet on goals scored by both teams would also be statistically justified, as the Galacticos have only conceded two goals in two league games. Incidentally, we will see many of Real Madrid’s stars again in a fortnight’ time at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.
