Can Qarabag surprise again?

On Matchday 4 of the Europa League, the teams of Qarabag Agdam and Olympiakos Piraeus meet in Group G. While the hosts have started surprisingly well in the EL, the team from Greece has its back against the wall. The visitors have yet to pick up a point and another defeat would mean that the knockout round is out of reach. In the match between Qarabga Agdam and Olympiakos Piraeus, the betting odds are therefore clearly geared towards a home win.

For the home team from Azerbaijan to progress in the Europa Leauge would be a great success and so far it looks quite good. However, with Piraeus and Nantes capable of going one better, Qarabag must not let off the gas now. In the Azərsun Arena, Gurbanov’s team has the fans behind them and thus at least not a bad starting position for the next point win. Piraeus, however, will do everything to prevent that, because the Greeks absolutely must score.

The odds are a little deceptive, as the Greek squad is a lot better set up than Qarabag’s. And that’s the case in pretty much every position and the bench is also much stronger. In the match between Qarabag Agdam and Olympiakos Piraeus, betting on a point win for the Greeks is therefore definitely worthwhile.

Qarabag Agdam – Statistics & current form

The hosts from Qarabag are currently second in Group G in the Europa League. In the first three games, the team from Azerbaijan picked up six points and that quite surprisingly. After the group draw, coach Gurban Gurbanov’s team seemed to be the clear underdogs in this group. However, they now stand a good chance of making it into the knockout rounds, and so far they have deserved to do so. Qarabag were the better team against Nantes and Piraeus, and they would have deserved a draw against Freiburg as well.

Without dropping a point in the domestic league

In the Azerbaijan Premier League, Qarabag Agdam are in first place. In the first eight games, the team did not drop a single point and consequently has twenty-four points on their account. The reigning champions are thus well on their way to defending their domestic league title. Especially since Gurbanov’s team has already beaten all its rivals in the battle for the championship and only has to play two weaker teams in the first series of the first leg.

Offensive power around Owusu Kwabena

Qarabag Agdam’s offense is not only strong in the league, but also managed to score against all teams from their group. In three group matches, the team from Azerbaijan scored seven goals and only SC Freiburg also managed to score that often. In the domestic league, the hosts have already scored twenty-five goals in just eight games. One of the target players in Qarabag’s attacking efforts is Kwabena, who has already scored eight goals this season.

Compactness in defence

The hosts have played two games to nil in the Europa League, conceding goals only in a 2-1 defeat to SC Freiburg. The back line is very compact, allows very little and is therefore a real support. Apart from the game against the team from Breisgau, Qarabag did not concede a single major chance. However, with Gurbanov’s team only managing to keep four of their eight games to nil in the league and Olympiakos expected to risk everything, a goal conceded in the upcoming match does not seem unlikely.

Predicted line-up of Qarabag Agdam:
Mahammadaliyev – Vesovic, Mustafazada, Huseynov, Dzhafarquliyev – Andrade, Qarayev, Borges, Almeida, Zoubir – Kwabena

Last matches played by Qarabag Agdam:

Premier League
09/10/2022 – FK Qäbälä 0 – 1 Qarabag FK

Europa League Grp. G
07/10/2022 – Olympiakos Piraeus 0 – 3 Qarabag FK

Premier League
01/10/2022 – Qarabag FK 3 – 1 FK Neftchi

18/09/2022 – Zira 1 – 7 Qarabag FK

Europa League Grp. G
15/09/2022 – Qarabag FK 3 – 0 Nantes

Olympiakos Piraeus – Statistics & current form

The visitors have disappointed in all areas in the current Europa League season. After three matchdays, the Greeks do not have a single point on their account and also always deserved to lose their games. Now coach Michel’s team has its back against the wall and needs to score in Baku. Another defeat would mean that Piraeus can no longer progress. In the match between Qarabag Agdam and Olympiakos Piraeus, the odds on an away win are set very high due to the visitors’ poor performance.

With some problems in the league

The reigning champions from Greece swept the domestic league last season and ended up taking the title with a nineteen-point lead. However, the start to the new season was a bit bumpy, with Olympiakos only picking up fourteen points from their first seven games. The gap to the league leader Panathinaikos is already seven points and the dominance seems to have been completely lost. Especially away from home, Piraeus has big problems and keeps dropping points.

Strong squad, weak results

Looking at the Olympiakos Piraeus squad, it is very surprising that the Greeks have not really found their way so far. There are a lot of players in their ranks who have already played in the best leagues all over Europe. The projected line-up alone is impressive for a Greek team, especially with the likes of Marcelo, James Rodriguez, Diadie Samassekou and Mathieu Valbuena still on the bench. So far, however, the bunch of stars does not seem to be a real unit.

Defensively clearly too vulnerable

With five goals conceded in eight games, the subheading seems a bit drastic, but especially in the Europa League, the Greeks are open at the back like a barn door. In the three games so far, the visitors have conceded eight goals, making them the weakest defence in the group. That is quite surprising, because the defensive players are by no means bad and yet Piraeus allow far too much. The bookmakers’ prediction for the match between Qarabag Agdam and Olympiakos Piraeus therefore clearly goes in the direction of the hosts.

Predicted line-up of Olympiakos Piraeus:
Tzolakis – Vrsaljko, M’Vila, Sokratis, Reabcuik – Biel, Bouchalakis, Kunde – Bakambu, Hwang

Last matches played by Olympiakos Piraeus:

Super League
09/10/2022 – OFI Crete 1 – 2 Olympiakos Piraeus

Europa League Grp. G
07/10/2022 – Olympiakos Piraeus 0 – 3 Qarabag FK

Super League
02/10/2022 – Olympiakos Piraeus 2 – 0 Atromitos

18/09/2022 – Aris Thessaloniki FC 2 – 1 Olympiakos Piraeus

Europa League Grp. G
15/09/2022 – Olympiakos Piraeus 0 – 3 SC Freiburg

Qarabag Agdam – Olympiakos Piraeus Direct comparison / H2H-balance

The direct comparison between Qarabag Agdam and Olympiakos Piraeus goes to the hosts. This is a result of the victory in the first leg, as the match on the sixth of October was the first meeting between these two clubs. The host also won the match in Piraeus clearly with 3:0 and is therefore also favoured for the return match. In terms of play, the team from Azerbaijan was simply better and won completely deservedly, even if it was a little high. In the match between Qarabag Agdam and Olympiakos Piraeus, betting on a home win does not seem improbable for the time being.

Qarabag Agdam – Olympiakos Piraeus Tip

Our prediction for the match between Qarabag Agdam and Olympiakos Piraeus goes for both teams, because contrary to the bookmakers, we expect an even match. Qarabag has the home advantage on their side and is in a much better form. Moreover, the team from Azerbaijan already showed how to beat Piraeus.  On the other hand, the Greeks have the much better squad, so it should be a match of equals overall based on the facts.

For the match between Qarabag Agdam and Olympiakos Piraeus, the odds on this bet are also quite lucrative.