Will FCZ prevent a total false start?
The qualifying competitions for the international group stage are not only arduous, but also extremely energy-sapping. If you want to fulfil the dream, you have to be prepared for a few English weeks at the beginning of the season. This week, the first legs of the second qualifying round for the UEFA Champions League are already on the agenda. In Azerbaijan, the clash between Qarabag Agdam and FC Zurich will take place on Tuesday from 6 p.m.
While the hosts have been the non-plus-ultra at national level for years and thus always get to prove themselves briefly in the top flight, it is a return to the big stage for the Swiss Confederates. After the surprising title win last season, FCZ is now hoping for the CL millions. But even the first hurdle will not be a foregone conclusion. In the first leg between Qarabag Agdam and FC Zurich, the bookmakers are even offering betting odds of up to 3.60 for the visitors.
The home side are considered the clear favourites, which is also due to their clear success against the Polish champions Lech Poznan last week, winning the home match 5:1.
Qarabag Agdam – Statistics & current form
Qarabag Agdam can now call themselves eleven-time champions in Azerbaijan. Last season, the team of head coach Qurban Qurbanov (in charge since 2008!) not only won the championship, but also secured the double by winning the cup.
This was an impressive return to the national throne after only achieving the runners-up title in 2020/21. However, 21 wins and only one defeat in 28 matches underpin the dominance of the team, which has now been at home in Baku rather than Karabakh for almost 30 years. As a result of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Agdam has become a ghost town.
Continuity is the key
After last season’s impressive campaign, the club’s management managed to keep the champion squad together. The only departure involving a regular player is that of Patrick Andrade (23 appearances, eight scorers), otherwise all players could be kept. In particular, the retention of Brazilian Kady (12 goals, 13 assists last year) was hugely important in keeping the dream of reaching the Champions League group stage again alive. In 2017/18, Qarabag Agdam finally became the first club in the country to play in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League. Last season, the Conference League (out in the intermediate round) was Qarabag’s home.
The early match date in mid-summer is far from ideal for the hosts, as the national championship does not open until early August. Accordingly, the balancing act between preparation and the most important matches of the year is difficult. After losing the first leg 1-0 against Lech Poznan and conceding another goal in the first minute of the second leg, the team’s progress was in serious danger. However, they managed to equalise quickly and thanks to a fantastic second half (four goals) they still won the knockout duel clearly.
This means that the hosts are now unbeaten in ten home games (7-3-0 record). However, these figures should be taken with a pinch of salt due to their dominance at home. The home strength is there, but the host is not such a clear favourite. Therefore, between Qarabag Agdam and FC Zurich, the prediction on the home win is also not recommended.
Predicted line-up of Qarabag Agdam:
Mahammadaliyev – Cafarquliyev, Medina, Medvedev, Vesovic – Jankovic, Richard – Zoubir, Ozobic, Kady – Wadji
Last matches played by Qarabag Agdam:
Champions League Qualifier
12/07/2022 – Qarabag FK 5 – 1 Lech Poznan
06/07/2022 – Lech Poznan 1 – 0 Qarabag FK
Cup
27/05/2022 – Qarabag FK (4)1 – 1(3) Zira
Premier League
21/05/2022 – Qarabag FK 4 – 1 FK Neftchi
15/05/2022 – Sabail 0 – 3 Qarabag FK
FC Zurich – Statistics & current form
Not even the boldest optimists in the FC Zurich camp would have expected such a season as last year. The dominance of FC Basel and Young Boys Bern over the last decade was stifling in Switzerland, with FC Zurich only finishing eighth the year before Andre Breitenreiter brought success back to the banking city.
FCZ dominated the league and proved extremely effective. Especially with regard to the expected goals statistic, the team was convincing. Thanks to the efficiency in front of the opponent’s goal, even close games were won. With 76 points, FCZ ultimately had a 14-point lead.
Hard legacy for Franco Foda
In recent weeks, FC Zurich has experienced the downside of dominance first hand, after all, success arouses covetousness. Success coach Andre Breitenreiter was aware that he could not top this season and jumped at the chance that he suddenly became a topic again in his German homeland.
But not only Breitenreiter left the club also top goal scorer Assan Ceesay decided against a contract extension. The departure of super talent Wilfried Gnonto is probably only a matter of time. It is hard to imagine that the 18-year-old Italian international will spend the entire season in Zurich.
Franco Foda, former Austrian team boss, is taking on an extremely difficult legacy. Expectations have risen, but basically he will only be able to lose. Speaking of losing – his first competitive game in Switzerland began with a defeat. In the top match against Young Boys from Bern, the champions were clearly beaten 0:4 on the artificial turf. FCZ had a chance to take the lead from the penalty spot before the team completely fell apart in the last 30 minutes.
In Austria, Foda was known as a very defensive coach, but in Switzerland this is not the case in the first few weeks. A look at the current results makes this clear. Of course, results in preparation should be taken with a grain of salt, but Foda’s games so far have all been characterised by many goals. A 3:2 win against Wil, a 3:1 win against Viktoria Köln and a 2:3 defeat against VFB Stuttgart as well as the aforementioned 0:4 against YBB. These statistics make betting on a high-scoring game between Qarabag Agdam and FC Zurich very interesting.
Predicted line-up of FC Zurich:
Brecher – Aliti, Kamberi, Kryeziu – Guerrero, Krasniqi, Conde, Boranijasevic – Marchesano – Gnonto, Tosin
Last matches played by FC Zurich:
Super League
16/07/2022 – BSC Young Boys 4 – 0 FC Zurich
Friendly club matches
09/07/2022 – VfB Stuttgart 3 – 2 FC Zurich
02/07/2022 – FC Zurich 4 – 1 Altach
02/07/2022 – FC Zurich 3 – 0 SC YF Juventus Zurich
22/06/2022 – FC Zurich 3 – 1 Viktoria Köln
Qarabag Agdam – FC Zurich Direct comparison / H2H-Balance
For the first time in history, the champions from Azerbaijan and their counterparts from Switzerland will face each other. While it will be the first ever competitive match against an Azerbaijani side for the Swiss from Zurich, Qarabag Agdam have previous experience of playing Swiss teams. In 2015/16, the Young Boys were eliminated in the Europa League with two wins (total score 4:0), and last season they faced FC Basel in the Conference League group stage (goalless draw at home, 3:0 defeat in Basel).
Qarabag Agdam – FC Zurich tip
The winner of this knockout encounter will also be seeded in the third qualifying round and should therefore once again have a feasible draw. First, however, the hurdle in the second qualifying round must be overcome and a clear favourite cannot be identified here.
Due to the home advantage and the clear home victory against Lech Poznan, Qarabag Agdam is considered the clear favourite against FC Zurich according to the current odds. Even though FCZ made a mess of the start of the season, Foda’s eleven definitely has the qualities to win away from home. At least the draw-no-bet bet on the guests has a certain appeal.
In the first leg of the second CL qualifying round between Qarabag Agdam and FC Zurich, the bet on the over 2.5 seems even more interesting. The betting odds with up to a 2.25 are very interesting and are played with six units bet.
The home side’s attacking style, last week’s 5:1 win against Lech Poznan and FC Zurich’s recent results all point to at least three goals. Foda’s team still lacks any stability in defence, but can still make its mark offensively. Three goals are far more likely than the odds suggest.
