The duel of the superstars: Who will risk more in the first leg?
The long wait is finally over this week. The Champions League is back! The first four round of 16 first legs on Tuesday and Wednesday are a real treat. Especially the match between Paris St. Germain and Real Madrid stands for a lot of explosiveness, excitement and hopefully also top-class football.
If we look at the odds before the first leg between PSG and Real Madrid, then the French star ensemble is currently even given the slightly better chances by the bookmakers. The aim is to do justice to this very thin role as favourites, especially in the home game.
The Parisians could certainly live very well with a result similar to their last appearance against the Madrilenians in front of a home crowd in September 2019, when they came out on top 3-0 in the group stage.
At the same time, it should be clear to all concerned that the Royals have their work cut out for them. Especially since things have not been going as well at national level as they were a few weeks ago. The same also applies to Pochettino’s team, which has not been convincing in terms of football so far this season. In view of the enormous importance of this first leg between PSG and Real Madrid, a prediction of rather few goals should therefore also be taken into consideration.
PSG – Statistics & current form
For Paris St. Germain, only the triumph in the Champions League counts again this season. The national duties enjoy a much lower priority compared to the great desire to finally hold the cup in their hands.
Although the Pochettino eleven leads the field in France’s top flight, the star ensemble left the impression time and again that they could not motivate themselves properly. Among other things, the subscription champions have already failed to reach the last 16 of the Coupe de France and have also dropped every fourth league match.
New PSG nerves in important CL home games?
Particularly in the offensive, the punch was often missing. PSG only struggled to a 1-0 home win against Rennes at the weekend. In the last seven inter-competition matches against first division teams, it was already the fourth game in which the capital club scored a maximum of one goal.
To make matters worse on Tuesday night, the Red and Blues have regularly failed to score in knockout games in front of a home crowd in the recent past. Only one of the last six Champions League home games in the knockout round was won. Last year, Les Parisiens reached the semi-finals but failed to win at home in the round of 16, quarter-finals and the preliminary round. With this in mind, it may be an option to bet on double chance X2 between PSG and Real Madrid.
Of the top starting eleven that was circulating in the media before the season, two world stars will most likely be missing. While there is at least hope that Neymar will make a brief appearance, Sergio Ramos will be absent. Ander Herrera will also be absent. However, the team will be hoping for the return of Idrissa Gueye, who recently won the Africa Cup with Senegal and is now expected to stabilise the central midfield.
Predicted PSG line-up:
Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Kimpembe, Mendes; Verratti, Gueye, Wijnaldum; Messi, Mbappe, Di Maria
Last matches played by PSG:
Ligue 1
02/11 2022 – Paris Saint-Germain 1 – 0 Rennes
02/06 2022 – Lille 1 – 5 Paris Saint-Germain
Coupe de France
01/31 2022 – Paris Saint-Germain (5)0 – 0(6) Nice
Ligue 1
01/23 2022 – Paris Saint-Germain 4 – 0 Reims
01/15 2022 – Paris Saint-Germain 2 – 0 Brest
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
Real Madrid are still the measure of all things in international football. No other club has won the Champions League more times in the last 20 years than the Spanish giant. In 2014, 2016, 2017 and 2018, the royals crowned themselves the best football team in Europe. In the past three seasons, however, they only made it as far as the semi-finals (2020/21). In the previous two seasons, they even reached the last 16.
In 2021/22, the “white ballet” can be expected to do all sorts of things again. Coach Carlo Ancelotti has managed to form a collective with players who have enough experience at the highest level and already know how to win major titles and to complement this collective with youngsters who have the necessary will and talent to pull off the big coup. It is therefore all the more surprising that slightly lower odds are being offered between PSG and Real Madrid for the French to progress.
Real already want to set the course away from home
In our eyes, the Madrilenians are at least equal. Statistically, the Galacticans even have one or two fists on their side. For example, Real have won all three of their away games in the group stage. Against Inter Milan, Shakhtyor Donetsk and Sheriff Tiraspol, goalkeeper Courtois always kept a clean sheet.
In general, the defence of the Spanish La Liga leaders deserves a separate mention. Only in seven of the 35 matches played this season did the Madrid side concede two or more goals. At the weekend, the Royals also fought their way to a 0-0 draw with Champions League eighth-finalists Villarreal. It was already the 15th clean sheet since the start of this season. The fact that only three goals were conceded in the group stage is another indication that PSG vs. Real Madrid is a good bet for the first leg with a forecast of 3.5 under.
Carlo Ancelotti still has to worry about his top striker Karim Benzema, who recently missed two matches in a row due to injury. The fact that Benzema has scored at least once in each of his last four Champions League games shows how important it would be for the Frenchman to play. After van Nistelrooy and Cristiano Ronaldo, he could become only the third Real player to score five times in a row in the top flight. Otherwise, the visitors’ squad looks pretty good.
Predicted Real Madrid line-up:
Courtois; Carvajal, Militao, Alaba, Mendy; Modric, Casemiro, Kroos; Asensio, Benzema, Vinicius
Last matches played by Real Madrid:
LaLiga
02/12 2022 – Villarreal FC 0 – 0 Real Madrid
02/06 2022 – Real Madrid 1 – 0 Granada
Copa del Rey
02/03 2022 – Athletic Bilbao 1 – 0 Real Madrid
LaLiga
01/23 2022 – Real Madrid 2 – 2 Elche
Copa del Rey
01/20 2022 – Elche 1 – 2 Real Madrid
PSG – Real Madrid Tip
Numerous superstars will be on the pitch in Tuesday night’s Champions League round of 16 first leg between Paris St Germain and Real Madrid. A special focus will certainly be on Kylian Mbappé, who could move from the French capital to their upcoming opponents as early as this summer. Before that, however, the international will be doing everything he can to help his current club reach the last eight.
Ahead of the PSG vs. Real Madrid game, lower betting odds are being offered on a home win, which is surprising given that the Red and Blues have only won one of their last six games in front of their own crowd in the knockout stages of the top flight. There has also been plenty of room for improvement from Pochettino’s point of view in recent performances.
Because the Spaniards have proven several times in recent years that they are hard to beat in the CL spring and are generally playing a good 2021/22 season so far, we would tend to advise against betting on the home win between PSG and Real Madrid. In fact, we think it’s realistic for the royals to take at least a draw away from the Prinzenpark. For very risk-averse bettors, DNB 2 might even be an option at high odds.
However, we try an alternative bet and assume that a maximum of three goals will be scored in the exciting first leg. This is primarily due to the fact that both teams will not play with their cards on the table and will take risks too early. Wait and see is the order of the day. In addition, the teams each have good and prominent defensive lines, which is why betting on a low-scoring match is our number one option.
