Does Portugal clinch a World Cup ticket in a head-to-head?
In Group A of the qualifiers for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, the decision will come down to a direct duel on the final matchday. At Benfica Lisbon’s home stadium, the Estadio da Luz, Portugal and Serbia will face each other on Sunday evening. This duel has been in the offing in recent months, with both teams holding 17 points out of a possible 21 after seven matchdays.
Neither the hosts nor the visitors have tasted defeat in qualifying so far. If the team around superstar Cristiano Ronaldo can maintain this aura of invincibility, Portugal will have their World Cup ticket firmly in the bag. Thanks to a four-goal better goal difference, Portugal is currently at the top and a draw would be enough. However, according to the current betting odds, Portugal are very clear favourites against Serbia. The best odds are just over 1.40, while a win for the visitors would result in nearly nine times the stake.
On Thursday, Portugal hosted Ireland and had to settle for a goalless draw. An upset without much consequence thanks to the better goal difference. Serbia were not in qualifying action, but played a test match against hosts Qatar, which they won 4:0. Self-confidence has been built up, can they now achieve the big coup? The match kicks off at 20:45 on Sunday.
Portugal – Statistics & current form
Cristiano Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes, Andre Silva or Joao Felix – the Portuguese national team’s offensive line-up is outstanding. And yet it may not be the offensive that is decisive in the fight for a World Cup ticket, but the defence. In the seven qualifying matches so far, Portugal, like Serbia, have scored 16 goals. The better goal difference is therefore due to the good defence, which has only conceded four goals.
Pepe flies off the pitch for record
For the all-important match in Lisbon, however, long-serving national coach Fernando Santos (in charge since 2014) will have to rebuild. “Aggressive leader” Pepe was sent off in the closing stages of the match against Ireland after repeated foul play. The central defender celebrated a special record in Dublin: at 38 years, eight months and 16 days, he became the oldest player ever to pull on the Portuguese jersey. The next call-up will now be a bit of a wait.
Those who believe that the average age of Portugal will be lowered by the absence of Pepe are, however, mistaken. His replacement in central defence will most likely be Jose Fonte. He is the 37-year-old defensive boss of current French champions OSC Lille. The Portuguese national team is certainly not lacking in experience in such an important game.
Strong home record
Playing for a draw is a bit like riding on a razor’s edge. This will certainly not be the objective of the Santos eleven, however, the Portuguese can rely on a very strong defence. Especially in the home games, Portugal regularly manages to play to “zero”.
The 1-0 defeat in the UEFA Nations League against France was the only home defeat for Portugal in the last 22 international matches. On the other hand, they have won 15 and drawn seven. Given these home statistics, there are no major doubts about a direct World Cup ticket. The goal difference in the last 16 home games is also impressive. Ronaldo & Co. scored 43 goals, but conceded only five. In this respect, the best bet for Portugal against Serbia is that both teams will not score at least once. Especially because of the starting position, both teams will probably react very cautiously.
Predicted line-up of Portugal:
Rui Patricio – Dalot, Dias, Fonte, Semedo – Danilo Pereira – Cristiano Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes, Matheus Nunes, Guedes – Andre Silva
Last matches played by Portugal:
World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. A
11/11 2021 – Ireland 0 – 0 Portugal
10/12 2021 – Portugal 5 – 0 Luxembourg
Friendly match
10/09 2021 – Portugal 3 – 0 Qatar
World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. A
09/07 2021 – Azerbaijan 0 – 3 Portugal
Friendly match
09/04 2021 – Qatar 1 – 3 Portugal
Serbia – Statistics & current form
The Serbian national football team is a team that seems much more comfortable on the very big stage. Serbia have never qualified for a European Championship, while they have competed at World Cups in both 2010 and 2018, but suffered a first-round exit on each occasion
Full focus on Lisbon
In the five-team Group A, the World Cup hosts Qatar were also drawn and thus the teams did not have any match-free dates but had to play matches against Qatar. On Thursday evening, this duel took place in Belgrade and Serbian head coach Dragan Stojkovic (in office since March this year) made sure that some of his stars only became part-timers. For example, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Dusan Vlahovic or Dusan Tadic only played a maximum of one half. In the end, the Serbs managed an unchallenged 4:0 victory. Much more important, however, was that none of the relevant players got injured, and thus nothing stands in the way of the showdown in Portugal.
Regardless of the result in the Estadio da Luz, Serbia can look back on a very satisfying football year. With the new coach, there has also been a small upheaval, and the Serbs can also draw on many talented younger players. This results in a good mix of the few veterans and great talents. Similar to Portugal, the offensive line is the big showpiece, purely in terms of names. In particular, hopes rest on the shoulders of Dusan Vlahovic (13 games, ten goals in the 2021/22 season; 13 internationals, seven goals).
Difficult balancing act for the Serbs
Given the offensive strength on both sides that has been mentioned, a very attack-minded match would be quite obvious. But there is far too much at stake for that. The guests from Serbia in particular must be aware that the line between risk and recklessness is very narrow due to the starting position. A deficit would make the World Cup dream a distant memory, so both teams will probably put a lot of emphasis on compactness and stability at the start.
Both teams are aware that they have “difference players” in their own ranks who can decide a game with their individual class even late on. A footballing treat is not to be expected, but fight and commitment will probably characterise the game. The odds on a draw at half-time for Portugal against Serbia (2.40) seem surprisingly high, and this bet is certainly worth a try.
Predicted line-up of Serbia:
Rajkovic – Nastasic, Mitrovic, Spajic – Kostic, Grujic, Maksimovic, Tadic – Milinkovic-Savic – Vlahovic, Jovic
Last matches played by Serbia:
Friendly match
11/11 2021 – Serbia 4 – 0 Qatar
World Cup Qualification UEFA 1st Round Grp. A
10/12 2021 – Serbia 3 – 1 Azerbaijan
10/09 2021 – Luxembourg 0 – 1 Serbia
09/07 2021 – Ireland 1 – 1 Serbia
09/04 2021 – Serbia 4 – 1 Luxembourg
Portugal – Serbia Direct comparison / H2H balance
On Sunday evening, the two nations will face each other for the eighth time in total. Based on the starting position in the Group A table, a draw would be enough for Portugal on Sunday and according to history there is no doubt about that.
Serbia have not won any of their seven international matches against Portugal so far, but CR7 & Co. are still warned, because in the first leg of the current qualifying campaign, Portugal gave away a 2-0 lead in Serbia and ultimately had to settle for a draw. This was the fourth draw, which compares with three Portuguese victories.
Portugal – Serbia Tip
Despite the international break, Sunday will be extremely exciting, as there are three direct duels for the respective fixed World Cup ticket. While Croatia and Russia will play out the World Cup participants at 3 pm, things will get serious on the Iberian peninsula at 8:45 pm. Both Spain (against Sweden) and Portugal not only have the home advantage on their side, but also lead the table.
For CR7 & Co, the motto is: no losing, then Portugal will definitely be in Qatar 2022. Maximum odds of 1.10 are offered for the double chance of 1X on Portugal against Serbia – this once again illustrates the very good starting situation.
The very good home record as well as the direct comparison (no defeat in seven games) contribute to this. However, the match will by no means be a foregone conclusion, as Serbia also have the individual quality to set up pinpricks.
However, neither side is expected to make the first mistake. The defensive side will dominate the game and the betting odds of 2.00 on the under 2.5 between Portugal and Serbia are extremely interesting. In general, odds of around 1.80 would have been expected here, but value is a given in any case.
