Atletico are fighting to progress!
The final matchday in the UEFA Champions League group stage is upon us and in this group, which now features Porto and Atletico, virtually anything is still possible after leaders Liverpool. The pressure is definitely on Diego Simeone’s visitors.
Atletico not only come to Portugal with a bitter defeat against Mallorca in their luggage, but also as the last team in this group. Second place is still possible. Before the match Porto vs. Atletico Madrid, the odds show that the role of the favourites is not at all clear. According to the bookmakers, there is little separating the two teams.
Porto is generally a relatively strong team at home, and that should show again this time. The all-important match in the top flight kicks off at 9pm on Tuesday, with the group’s parallel match traditionally taking place at the same time.
Porto – Statistics & current form
FC Porto have a realistic chance of progressing in the Champions League. And that in a group with Liverpool FC, Atletico Madrid and Milan. Before the last match, the Portuguese are in second place with five points, Milan and Atletico have four points on their account. The Rossoneri play parallel against Liverpool, who are already sure to win their group and can rest. So only limited support is to be expected.
For Porto, it is clear that a win is enough to enter the round of 16. In the event of a draw, they would have to hope that Milan don’t win, and in the event of a defeat, they would only be in third or fourth place. So much for the arithmetic. Porto have played a rock-solid group stage so far and are also among the league leaders in the fight for the title. The form curve is very good, at the weekend there was a 3:0 victory in the league against Portimonense.
Porto are not to be underestimated at home in the Champions League. In four of the last five home games, they managed to stay without conceding a goal. This is one of the reasons why the betting odds before the Porto vs Atletico Madrid match show that there is no clear favourite. The tendency is slightly in the direction of the visitors, but this may also be due to the higher individual quality.
Will Porto hold their nerve?
The last group match of the season is therefore a final for both. Porto play in front of their home crowd, having won every home game there in the league and their only victory in the Champions League. But the pressure before this match is once again particularly high because every mistake can be decisive. It will be exciting to see how actively the teams go into the duel, who takes the initiative more.
At the latest after the first goal has been scored in this match, the team that is behind must intensify its offensive efforts. Both teams have many good attacking players in their squad, so our tip before the Porto vs Atletico Madrid match is that both teams will also score goals.
Predicted Porto line-up:
Diogo Costa – Corona, Mbemba, Cardoso, Zaidu – Olivera, Grujic, Otavio, Luis Diaz – Evanilson, Taremi
Last matches played by Porto:
Liga Portugal
12/03 2021 – Portimonense 0 – 3 FC Porto
11/28 2021 – FC Porto 2 – 1 Vitoria de Guimaraes
Champions League Grp. B
11/24 2021 – Liverpool FC 2 – 0 FC Porto
Cup
11/20 2021 – FC Porto 5 – 1 Feirense
Liga Portugal
11/07 2021 – Santa Clara 0 – 3 FC Porto
Atletico Madrid – Statistics & current form
Atletico Madrid, actually a permanent guest in the knockout round of the top flight, has to tremble enormously this season. After three defeats in a row in this group, however, elimination can still be avoided. The form is not good, at the weekend Atletico missed numerous chances and lost 1:2 against Mallorca.
In La Liga, the Colchoneros slipped down to fifth place and especially defensively, which is actually their trademark, is lacking. In La Liga, they conceded 16 goals in 15 games, in the Champions League there were seven goals that Jan Oblak could not prevent. That’s not a good ratio for the Simeone eleven.
Atletico Madrid finding normal form?
The big question now is whether the team can somehow put an end to the problems they have had in recent games. There must be an improvement in performance, for the first time since 2009 the Colchoneros are threatening a run of three games in the Champions League without scoring a goal of their own. The necessary offensive personnel is available and the risk should be noticeably increased in this match.
Moreover, the opponent is not Atletico’s big favourite. The Colchoneros have only won one of their last four games at FC Porto. The statistics don’t speak too much for a triumph for the visitors.
It is quite possible that the visitors will rely on a three-man defence in order to exert offensive pressure as well as to have a good balance. Because spaces will inevitably be created at some point in this match, our value tip ahead of Porto vs Atletico Madrid is that more than 2.5 goals will be scored.
Predicted Atletico Madrid line-up:
Oblak – Felipe, Savic, Hermoso – Llorente, Koke, de Paul, Carrasco – Joao Felix, Correa, Suarez
Last matches played by Atletico Madrid:
LaLiga
12/04 2021 – Atletico Madrid 1 – 2 Mallorca
11/28 2021 – Cadiz 1 – 4 Atletico Madrid
Champions League Grp. B
11/24 2021 – Atletico Madrid 0 – 1 AC Milan
LaLiga
11/20 2021 – Atletico Madrid 1 – 0 Osasuna Pamplona
11/07 2021 – Valencia 3 – 3 Atletico Madrid
Porto – Atletico Madrid Direct comparison / H2H balance
Nine times both teams have faced each other in direct duels so far. Porto have won two of those matches, while Atletico are on three wins, so the record is relatively even. The only two wins for the Portuguese came in the group stage of the 2009/10 top flight.
Porto – Atletico Madrid Tip
Porto face Atletico Madrid and a battle of nerves looms. The slide rules will have to be applied during the match, it may come down to a drama until the last second. Current form is slightly in favour of the hosts, but Atletico have a lot of quality and know how to win big games.
Despite this, residual doubts remain with the visitors. Eliminating them will require a very good performance. Both teams will have to tactic, but also weigh the risk wisely. Looking at all the omens, our tip before the Porto vs Atletico Madrid match is that both teams will score.
