The defending champions are fighting against an early exit
Last season, Leicester City surprisingly won the FA Cup for the first time in the club’s history. Brendan Rodgers’ charges would love to build on that success this season, but they still have a few obstacles to overcome on the complicated road to Wembley Stadium.
In the round of the last 32, for example, the Foxes will face Nottingham Forest at the weekend. The second division club eliminated none other than Arsenal Football Club in the third main round and is now aiming for the next coup. The bookmakers’ odds between Nottingham and Leicester underline that this is a distinct possibility. Despite the difference in class, the away win after regular time is offered with quotes of up to 1.95.
Hopeful from the point of view of the supposed favourites is the fact that the personnel situation of the English champions of 2016 has eased somewhat. In addition, the Foxes have often shown in recent years that they can put their best face forward in important games with a “do or die” character. Therefore, it is perhaps worth considering a prediction between Nottingham and Leicester on the (too) highly-quoted three-pointer of the better-quality guest.
Nottingham – Statistics & current form
The club history of Nottingham Forest Football Club reads extremely successful. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, the Red and Whites not only won the European Cup twice, but were also English champions in 1978. The two FA Cup triumphs, however, are much further back in the past, even though they reached the final of the world’s oldest cup competition in 1991.
The Garibaldi Reds would very much like to build on the successes of days gone by, but for 13 years now the former title holders have only been at home in the second-tier Championship. The Gunners from London had to learn in the third round that cup competitions can still be good for surprises. Thanks to a goal by Lewis Grabban in the 83rd minute, the underdog sensationally prevailed and thus earned the next knockout match against the defending champions.
Does the second division side pull off the second surprise in a row?
We wouldn’t consider the home side to be without a chance this time either. Especially considering that coach Steve Cooper’s team has been in really good form lately. They have won seven of the last ten competitive matches. The dress rehearsal in the previous week, however, was lost against Cardiff City with 1:2.
It should also be remembered that the second home game of the current season against a Premier League club went down the drain. In the League Cup, Forest lost 4-0 to Wolverhampton, which is why we also suspect the more appealing value between Nottingham and Leicester in betting on the away win. Despite the supposedly good form and the progress against an extremely weak Arsenal on this day, the seventh of the second English league still plays against the FA Cup defending champion.
Predicted Nottingham line-up:
Samba; Spence, Figueiredo, McKenna, Lowe; Cafu, Colback; Johnson, Garner, Zinckernagel; Davis
Last matches played by Nottingham:
Championship
01/30 2022 – Cardiff 2 – 1 Nottingham Forest
01/25 2022 – Nottingham Forest 3 – 0 Barnsley
01/22 2022 – Nottingham Forest 2 – 1 Derby
01/15 2022 – Millwall 0 – 1 Nottingham Forest
FA Cup
01/09 2022 – Nottingham Forest 1 – 0 Arsenal London
Leicester – Statistics & current form
Bottom line, Leicester City are playing a disappointing season so far. In the UEFA Europa League, the Foxes only finished third in their group, so that they now only continue in the Conference League. In the English League Cup, they lost a comfortable lead in the quarter-finals to a C-team Liverpool FC side, and Rodgers’ side are currently tenth in the Premier League, falling short of their own expectations.
The reasons for this low points tally are complex. On the one hand, the 2016 champions repeatedly had to deal with personnel problems, which sometimes led to the postponement of some matches around the turn of the year or at the beginning of the new calendar year. On the other hand, there was simply a lack of consistency for long periods of the season.
Leicester hope for a successful re-start
Despite this, there is a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel as, with just under two weeks off, coach Rodgers will be able to call on a number of players this weekend who have either been struggling with the after-effects of injuries/infections or have been away at the Africa Cup with their national teams. Consequently, we expect a clear improvement in performance from the qualitatively stronger guests. This assumption equally leads to the fact that between Nottingham and Leicester a prediction on the Premier League club advancing should pay off.
A second point that should certainly not be swept under the carpet is the fact that the Foxes have really taken the FA Cup to heart over the last two years. In 2019/20, the team made it to the quarter-finals for the first time in almost 40 years; one season later, the team, in a similar constellation as currently, won the title!
Regardless of how much the coach will rotate the team for the league, we believe that the odds on the visitors to win the fourth round clash between Nottingham and Leicester after 90 minutes are too high and offer interesting value.
Predicted Leicester line-up:
Ward; Justin, Amartey, Vestergaard, Thomas; Soumare, Dewsbury-Hall; Albrighton, Maddison, Barnes; Perez
Last matches played by Leicester:
Premier League
01/23 2022 – Leicester 1 – 1 Brighton
01/19 2022 – Leicester 2 – 3 Tottenham
FA Cup
01/08 2022 – Leicester 4 – 1 Watford
Premier League
12/28 2021 – Leicester 1 – 0 Liverpool FC
12/26 2021 – Manchester City 6 – 3 Leicester
Nottingham – Leicester Direct Comparison / H2H Record
A whopping 104 matches have already been played between the long-time first division rivals on the English competitive stage. With 40 wins compared to 38 defeats, the pointer is pointing in the Foxes’ direction. In the FA Cup, the record is absolutely even after three games (1-1-1).
2011/12 was the last time they met in the national cup. The clubs drew 0-0 at the City Ground before Leicester prevailed 4-0 in a replay. There will be no such second match next weekend in the event of a draw. If necessary, extra time and a penalty shoot-out will have to decide whether the team advances or is eliminated. If there is indeed a penalty shoot-out, odds of 6.00 at Bet365 could be offered in the run-up to the match.
Nottingham – Leicester Tip
A clash between Championship club and Premier League club in the fourth main round of the FA Cup on Sunday. The seventh from the second division, Nottingham Forest, receives the tenth from the top house, Leicester City. Despite the difference in class, the task will be anything but a foregone conclusion from the visitors’ point of view.
This assessment is based primarily on the fact that the Garibaldi Reds already knocked out a favourite in the previous round, Arsenal, and are also in decent shape, having won seven of their last ten competitive games. Nevertheless, the qualitative advantages lie with the Foxes, who will also be hoping for the return of several key players and, as defending champions, are particularly fond of the FA Cup and take it seriously.
We therefore believe that the betting odds for the away win between Nottingham and Leicester are a little too high.
