Will the Blues start 2023 successfully?
Around the turn of the year, the 18th matchday of the current Premier League season is on the agenda in the motherland of football. The majority of the games will be played in the last hours of the old year, with a total of two games on the agenda on New Year’s Day.
In the late afternoon, the City Ground will host the duel between a promoted team and a Champions League participant. The starting situation is accordingly clear and between Nottingham and Chelsea the tip on the visitors is clearly favoured.
The Premier League returnees from Nottingham have spent an enormous amount of money to ensure that their adventure in the top flight does not last just 38 matchdays. So far, however, the success is manageable and the fear of relegation is clearly felt in view of only 13 points.
A surprising point against one of the favourites would be psychologically very important. Between Nottingham and Chelsea, the prediction on the home side attracts more than five times the stake, a win for the visitors is rated at a maximum of 1.70.
The Potter protégés were not in particularly strong form themselves before the World Cup break, but started the second half of the season with a commanding success. This upward trend has to be prolonged, the match starts on Sunday at 18:30 hrs.
Nottingham – Statistics & current form
The Tricky Trees from Nottingham have come to stay. Greek president Evangelos Marinakis made this clear by signing countless new players. The transfer fee paid amounts to over 160 million euros. Some well-known players found their way to the Reds, but so far the completely new team has not worked. Despite the many new arrivals and the poor results, the management is still holding on to promotion coach Steve Cooper. The Welshman even got a contract extension during the crisis.
The weeks of truth are upon us
Whether the club would take the road back to the Championship with him, however, still has to be questioned. During the World Cup break Nottingham Forest had hardly any international call-ups and in the coming weeks it must no longer be an argument that the team is not yet settled. There was now plenty of time to change that.
In their first appearance after the break, they suffered a 3-0 defeat at Old Trafford against Manchester United. Now the next top-class opponent, Chelsea, awaits, but at the latest after that the weeks of truth are on the agenda with games against Southampton, Leicester, Bournemouth, Leeds and Fulham.
The first home game of 2023 can therefore be seen as a “strike result” and the Cooper eleven can go into this game without much pressure. A glimmer of hope is also provided by the statistics, as Nottingham Forest have won the first league game of a calendar year in the last four years. In addition, the Tricky Trees have won 11 of their 19 games in January in their Premier League history. The 58 per cent win rate is the highest in a single month.
Predicted Nottingham line-up:
Hennessey – Lodi, Boly, Worrall, Aurier – Yates, Freuler, Mangala – Awoniyi, Lingard, Johnson
Last matches played by Nottingham:
Premier League
28/12/2022 – Manchester United 3 – 0 Nottingham Forest
Carabao Cup
22/12/2022 – Blackburn 1 – 4 Nottingham Forest
Club friendlies
17/12/2022 – Valencia 1 – 2 Nottingham Forest
10/12/2022 – Olympiakos Piraeus 1 – 0 Nottingham Forest
06/12/2022 – Atromitos 3 – 2 Nottingham Forest
Chelsea – Statistics & current form
Even before Chelsea returned to the pitch in a competitive match, the club’s management sought to ease the pressure. After riding the wave of success following Graham Potter’s takeover, things did not go to plan in the final weeks before the World Cup break.
As a result, the Blues not only slipped out of the Champions League ranks, but would not even be internationally qualified at present. Moreover, even Potter’s former club Brighton & Hove Albion is currently ahead of the team from London. Eighth place in the table is of course a bitter disappointment, but Potter is not up for discussion.
Blues against the New Year trauma
Last Tuesday, Chelsea ran out commanding 2-0 winners at home to promoted AFC Bournemouth. Surprisingly, both goals came in the first period. Chelsea have been stingy with first-half goals so far this season.
The goals from Kai Havertz and Mason Mount were only the seventh and eighth goals in the first period. But also in general, the Chelsea offence does not radiate much danger this season. The 19 goals scored so far were only undercut in the horror year 2015/16 after 15 league games.
In the new year, the club wants to build on its old strength, but must immediately fight against another negative trend. In the last six years, there has not been a single win in the first league game of the year. This is the second-longest negative run in Chelsea club history, only surpassed between 1929 and 1938.
The Blues also suffered three consecutive away defeats in the competition. A fourth defeat at the City Ground would be the first time they have lost four away matches in a row since January/February 2019 (then under Maurizio Sarri).
Despite the many injury worries (Fofana, Chilwell, James, Kante, Broja) and these horror statistics, being favourites is absolutely justified. The performance against the Cherries was definitely a step in the right direction. The offense showed improvement, the defense is very strong anyway (only 17 goals conceded). In that respect, with Nottingham against Chelsea, the prediction that not both teams will score is also a good possibility.
Predicted line-up of Chelsea:
Arrizabalaga – Cucurella, Koulibaly, Silva, Azpilicueta – Mount, Jorginho, Zakaria – Pulisic, Havertz, Sterling
Last matches played by Chelsea:
Premier League
28/12/2022 – Chelsea FC 2 – 0 Bournemouth
Friendly club matches
11/12/2022 – Chelsea FC 0 – 1 Aston Villa
Premier League
13/11/2022 – Newcastle 1 – 0 Chelsea FC
Carabao Cup
10/11/2022 – Manchester City 2 – 0 FC Chelsea
Premier League
06/11/2022 – Chelsea FC 0 – 1 Arsenal FC
Nottingham – Chelsea Direct comparison / H2H balance
The two teams have not faced each other in a league match in the 21st century. The last meeting was in February 1999, when the capital team won 3:1. In general, the promoted side do not have particularly good memories of the Blues, as in each of the last seven competitive matches between Nottingham and Chelsea, the prediction on the Blues has been correct. The most recent clash to date came in January 2020, a 2-0 win for Chelsea in the FA Cup.
Nottingham – Chelsea Tip
Statistics fans almost have to flirt with betting on a surprise in the clash between Nottingham and Chelsea. Although Welsh coaches have a disastrous record against Chelsea (nine defeats in a row), the promoted side have won their first league game in the last four years, while the Blues have gone winless in their first game in the last six (four draws, two defeats).
Despite this, the prediction on the home side has no appeal, as for much of the season so far, the promoted side have failed to prove that they are competitive in the Premier League. The first Chelsea game after the World Cup break was a confident and hard-nosed performance by the Potter eleven.
The quality is undeniable and given the home side’s weak attack (only eleven goals), the odds for the away win without conceding are very interesting between Nottingham and Chelsea. Four units are recommended for this bet. If this is too risky for you, you can also find very interesting odds on a regular Chelsea win.
