Will Burnley remain without points?

In the coming week, the whistle sounds for the group stage of international matches. Accordingly, the national associations have scheduled the top teams all earlier to allow enough recovery time. Accordingly, Monday night’s match in the English Premier League is not an absolute treat. Nottingham and Burnley face each other at the City Ground, with the home side the clear favorite. Quite understandable, because the promoted team from Burnley has not yet scored a point this season.

The poor start to the season need not be a reason to panic, however, because the Garibaldi Reds from Nottingham are the best example that despite a disappointing start, the season can still be successful. Last year, Nottingham started as a promoted team with just four points from nine league games, but still managed to stay in the league. Burnley will definitely prove their PL fitness in the coming weeks. After the recent results, however, Kompany’s eleven will focus a little more attention on defense. Therefore, in the duel between Nottingham and Burnley offers a prediction on few goals.

The home side already have two victories to their credit this season, and with a third success they can already build a small cushion on the relegation places and orient themselves towards the upper half of the table. The game kicks off on Monday evening at 8:45 p.m.

Nottingham – Statistics & current form

After virtually assembling a completely new team for their Premier League adventure, it took a little while for the Cooper eleven to get the results they wanted. The trust placed in the Welsh coach paid off when the team managed to stay in the league. This summer has also seen heavy investment, but this time targeted reinforcements have been landed. Nottingham have a squad that basically has the quality to move away from any relegation worries early on.

Four home wins in a row

At the end of last season, Nottingham Forest won their last three games at the City Ground. That streak has continued so far in 2023/24, with the only home game so far against Sheffield United won 2-1; meaning the Cooper eleven have won for four home games. In addition to this statistic, the very positive “Monday record” also underlines the role of favorites in favor of the host.

Only one of the last ten league games on the first day of the week was lost (5-4-1 record). Six of those games were played at the City Ground, with the record almost perfect at 5-1-0. These numbers underline the lowest odds on Nottingham vs Burnley when betting on the home win.

The life insurance in the game of the Garibaldi Reds is the former Union Berlin attacker Taiwo Awoniyi. The Nigerian is always on hand and has collected 15 scorer points (13 goals, two assists) since his move to the island. Season-to-date, he has scored nine goals in his last eight PL games.

Predicted Nottingham lineup:

Nottingham Forest (Expected lineup) 3-4-2-1

Burnley – statistics & current form

Under club legend Sean Dyche, Burnley lasted five years in the Premier League. In the 2021/22 season, there was a change of ownership and in the crisis, the new management no longer trusted the long-time coach. Although relegation could not be prevented, in retrospect it was more of a blessing than a curse. Burnley was known in the Premier League as a team that sometimes exaggerated in terms of toughness and fought more soccer than played.

In the Championship, these are the virtues that are usually in demand, but under new coach Vincent Kompany, Burnley proved that even in a tough league, class can prevail. Many veterans left the club, while many talented young players gained the Belgian’s trust. Soccer became much more attractive. This can also be seen in the Premier League. In the first three games, Burnley has posted an average of 11.7 ball taps with ten or more passes, in the relegation year, the value here was only 2.9.

Defensive worries so far

Promotion was achieved with aplomb, but Kompany’s eleven has had to pay a lot of dues in the Premier League so far. Burnley still wants to play an active role in the game, but is taking too many risks in the process. Goalkeeper James Trafford has already conceded eleven goals in the first three league games. This statistic is particularly sobering given that Burnley have played all three of their season games at home to Turf Moor so far. The only scheduled away game so far, against fellow promotion contenders Luton Town, had to be postponed.

As a result, the international break had to be used to ensure better coordination between defense and offense. The attractive style of play will certainly pay off in the long run, but a bit more of a safety aspect needs to be incorporated into the game. For this very reason, it can be assumed that Burnley will try to minimize the risk in the first away game of this season. Although at Burnley the games so far have been very high-scoring, so between Nottingham and Burnley a forecast on few goals is interesting for us.

With Manchester United, Newcastle and Chelsea, three very tough opponents await the Clarets after the game at the City Ground. In that respect, the danger of a horror winless streak at the start of the season is definitely there. Therefore, something tangible on Monday would be of enormous importance, especially for morale. In general, the situation at Burnley can be compared to that of Nottingham last year. Vincent Kompany has countless new players to integrate, but this takes time.

Predicted lineup of Burnley:

Burnley (Expected lineup) 4-2-3-1

Nottingham – Burnley Direct comparison / H2H balance

These two teams face each other in the highest division on Monday night for the first time since 1971. Also in general, the last league duel was a few years ago and accordingly not a real barometer. In February 2016, Burnley celebrated a 1-0 home victory at Turf Moor in the second-tier Championship. The last meeting so far took place a few days ago, at the end of August in the League Cup, which Burnley won 1-0 thanks to a last-minute goal from Swiss Zeki Amdouni.

Nottingham – Burnley Tip

All season long, the home side have won their last four home games at the City Ground, while the visitors are looking back on a disappointing start to the season (three defeats, despite three home games). Based on these statistics, a tip on the hosts is obvious between Nottingham and Burnley. This is also one of our top three tips for the final game of the fifth PL matchday 2023/24.

We see an even better ratio for return and risk in the Nottingham vs. Burnley match when predicting the under 2.5. Nottingham has now scored at least once in the last eleven PL games in a row, but goal festivals are still relatively rare for the Cooper eleven. There were only seven home games with three or more goals last year. Burnley will have to learn from their previous performances and take fewer risks or stabilize their defense. Three goals are therefore not expected and as a bet six units are recommended for the under 2.5

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