Tricky top match: Napoli vs. Barcelona on a knife’s edge
The first leg was already exciting and somehow felt more like Champions League than Europa League, the result at the end now ensures that Napoli vs Barcelona will finally be the thrilling top match of the Europa League play-off round.
Thursday night at 9pm these two teams duel at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium, after the first leg ended 1-1, the game is on a knife edge.
Bookmakers have the match extremely even in the three-way. At first glance, it is difficult to identify a favourite to progress. You can look forward to a real top match in which both teams have to play for victory in the end – even if it is at the end of the 90 minutes.
Napoli – Statistics & current form
In the first leg a week ago, Napoli performed as expected in advance. The Azzurri stood deep, defended tightly and attentively and lurked on the counterattack. The Neapolitans only allowed one goal against a sometimes furious Barça – and that was only due to an unfortunate handball penalty. Barça were unable to break down the Neapolitan defence, and there were good reasons for that.
Napoli have the best defence in the Italian Serie A. They have only conceded 18 goals in 26 games in Italy’s elite league. Thanks to this strong defence, Napoli are in the thick of the Serie A title race. Luciano Spalletti’s team is currently in 3rd place, just two points behind league leaders AC Milan.
Napoli unbeaten in Italy for seven games – but also with a botched dress rehearsal
The Azzurri are unbeaten in the league for seven games, but only managed a painful draw on Monday in the dress rehearsal before the clash with Barça. Napoli couldn’t manage more than a 1-1 draw with relegation candidates Cagliari and only saved the draw with an equaliser shortly before the end.
Three days later, Napoli have to play again – so the Italian match organisers were not merciful. This does not make the difficult match against FC Barcelona any easier. If there is another draw of any kind after 90 minutes, the game will go into extra time. For us, the betting on Napoli vs. Barcelona is obvious, as we can assume a similarly hard-fought match on equal terms as in the first leg.
If Napoli progress in the end, whether after 90 or 120 minutes, the slight underdog will have prevailed. This is illustrated by a look at the betting odds on Napoli vs. Barcelona with regard to a progression.
Predicted Napoli line-up:
Meret – Malcuit, Koulibaly, Rrahmani, Jesus – Ruiz, Anguissa, Elmas, Zielinski, Insigne – Osimhen
Last matches played by Napoli:
Serie A
02/21 2022 – Cagliari 1 – 1 SSC Napoli
Europa League Final Stage
02/17 2022 – Barcelona 1 – 1 SSC Napoli
Serie A
02/12 2022 – SSC Napoli 1 – 1 Inter Milan
02/06 2022 – Venice 0 – 2 SSC Napoli
01/23 2022 – SSC Napoli 4 – 1 Salernitana
Barcelona – Statistics & current form
While Napoli fluffed their dress rehearsal a little on Monday, FC Barcelona’s was more than successful. The Catalans won 4:1 at Valencia on Sunday and showed the kind of coolness in front of goal that they lacked in the first leg against Napoli.
New winter signing Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang was the match-winner, scoring a hat-trick in his first league appearance. Barça have thus gained a lot of self-confidence before their visit to the Maradona Stadium, which the Blaugrana also need if they want to survive at the foot of Vesuvius. Napoli have only suffered one home defeat in the league so far this season. Only Atalanta Bergamo and AC Milan (30 points) are stronger at home than SSC Napoli (28 points).
Upward trend visible – but Barcelona often struggle away from home
Meanwhile, Barça celebrated only their fourth away win in their 13th away game, 4-1 at Valencia. The Xavi side have struggled away from home this season, as evidenced by disappointing results in cup competitions: 3-0 and 3-0 away to Benfica Lisbon and Bayern Munich in the Champions League, and a 3-2 extra-time defeat at Athletic Bilbao in the Spanish Cup.
However, Barça also have a strong run in the domestic league, where they have been unbeaten for nine games. This also explains very well why the odds are so evenly balanced in the three-way tie between Napoli and Barcelona.
Predicted line-up of Barcelona:
Ter Stegen – Dest, Piqué, Araujo, Alba – Busquets, De Jong, Pedri – Traore, Aubameyang, Torres
Last matches played by Barcelona:
LaLiga
02/20 2022 – Valencia 1 – 4 Barcelona
Europa League Final Stage
02/17 2022 – Barcelona 1 – 1 SSC Napoli
LaLiga
02/13 2022 – Espanyol 2 – 2 Barcelona
02/06 2022 – Barcelona 4 – 2 Atletico Madrid
01/23 2022 – Deportivo Alaves 0 – 1 Barcelona
Napoli – Barcelona Tip
2.80 is available on average on a Napoli win, just over 2.50 on a Barcelona success. Odds that are reasonable for this match, which does not sound like Europa League, but definitely like Champions League. And which, on paper, could hardly be more balanced.
Both teams are on a good run, Napoli is also strong at home, Barça usually has a hard time away from home. At the same time, however, an upward trend is clearly discernible, as recently underlined by a 4-2 win against Atletico and a 4-1 win against Valencia.
Given the good form, we expect goals on both sides. Napoli not only score an average of almost two goals per home game, but have scored in 11 of their 13 Serie A home games. And Barça have been good offensively of late anyway, but at the same time always vulnerable at the back (only one to-nil in the last 15 games).
Due to the strong form of the Catalans, however, we are ultimately betting on a close finish for the visitors – possibly even after the 90 minutes have elapsed. So our prediction for Napoli against Barcelona is: Double chance X2 and both score
