Will Morocco knock the calculators from Spain out of the tournament?
Never have opinions differed more about a team at this World Cup than they do about the Spaniards. There are experts who believe that the Iberians will make a deep run and dismiss the 2-1 defeat in the last group game as a foregone conclusion. Then again, there are other experts who think that coach Luis Enrique’s team is completely overrated. As is so often the case, the truth probably lies somewhere between these polarising extremes.
The fact is that the former World and European champions continue to enjoy an appealing standing with the bookmakers. Ahead of the Morocco vs. Spain round of 16 match, bets on Sergio Busquets and Co. advancing are much lower. While only 1.28 is offered for Spain to reach the World Cup quarter-finals, a surprise for the North Africans, whether after regular playing time, extra time or a penalty shoot-out, will result in almost four times the stake being paid out.
Between Morocco and Spain, however, it is imperative to take into account the fact that the supposed outsiders finished first in a strong preliminary round group ahead of Croatia and Belgium, recorded a total of seven points and also currently have one of the best defences in the tournament. The penultimate of the eight World Cup round of 16 finals, in which the German national team would also have liked to see itself, therefore holds surprise potential.
Morocco – Statistics & current form
The Moroccan national football team has undoubtedly been one of the positive features of this World Cup in Qatar so far. And that in many respects. First and foremost, of course, is the team’s performance in the highly competitive Group F, in which the North Africans picked up seven of a possible nine points and thus punched their ticket to the last 16 as group winners.
After a 0-0 opening draw against runners-up Croatia, Hakim Ziyech and Co. went on to beat Belgium 2-0 and then Canada 2-1. The fact that coach Walid Regragui’s side have conceded only one goal in total, and significantly this came from an own goal, underlines the enormous defensive stability that captain Romain Saiss’ defence has brought to the pitch so far.
Morocco still unbeaten under Regragui
It was only in September that the aforementioned Regragui, who played 44 matches for the Lions of the Atlas as an international himself, took over the post at the association. The Moroccans have played seven international matches under him so far and have not suffered a single defeat. The 22nd-ranked player in the world has also kept a clean sheet in six of the seven matches. Five times a bet on the under 2.5 would have gone through.
Against this backdrop, our first approach in the Morocco vs. Spain round of 16 match is to bet on a maximum of two goals in the course of the match. Nevertheless, we think it is far from impossible that the underdogs, who have reached the knockout stage of a World Cup finals for only the second time since 1986, will remain unbeaten in their fifth consecutive World Cup match.
Surprise coup with pinpricks
While the aforementioned underdog role is understandable, the typical approach of the former African champions, which is based on a solid defence with many legs and a focus on quick switching play after winning the ball, could become a problem for the opponents who dominate possession.
Particularly, of course, because coach Regragui has a number of stars to fall back on. In addition to the aforementioned Hakim Ziyech, Youssef En-Nesyri, keeper Bono, Nassir Mazraoui, Nayef Aguerd and Achraf Hakimi all earn their money with top teams in Europe. Moreover, the Moroccans already showed at the World Cup four years ago in Russia, when they drew 2-2 in the group stage, that on a good day they can give Spain a leg up.
Predicted Morocco line-up:
Bono – Mazraoui, Saiss, Aguerd, Hakimi – Sabiri, Amrabat, Ounahi – Boufal, En-Nesyri, Ziyech
Last matches played by Morocco:
World Cup Group F
01/12/2022 – Canada 1 – 2 Morocco
27/11/2022 – Belgium 0 – 2 Morocco
23/11/2022 – Morocco 0 – 0 Croatia
Friendlies
17/11/2022 – Morocco 3 – 0 Georgia
28/09/2022 – Paraguay 0 – 0 Morocco
Spain – Statistics & current form
About a decade ago, the Spanish national football team was an absolute role model for many other nations. With the golden generation around Xavi, Iniesta, David Villa, Sergio Ramos or Fernando Torres, the Iberians rushed from title to title and dominated world football with their tici-taca. Ten to 14 years later, the style of play has not changed. The trophy cabinet at the federation’s headquarters, however, has also remained unchanged.
That the Furia Roja will win the World Cup for the second time since 2010 is a realistic scenario according to the bookmakers, but not a particularly likely one. Ahead of the round of 16 between Morocco and Spain, odds of 7.50 are being offered on the southern Europeans to win the title.
Germany is rooting for Morocco
The farce, however, is that the corresponding betting odds have actually dropped due to the defeat on the last group matchday against Japan. The reason for this is obvious, because by slipping to second place in Group E, which as we all know happened to the chagrin of the DFB team, coach Luis Enrique’s men are now in the bottom half of the table and can therefore meet top favourite Brazil in the final at the earliest. As a reminder: If Spain had won their group, they would have faced the South American star team directly in the World Cup quarter-finals.
Whether the Spaniards actually accepted second place in order to put themselves in a better position, or whether the Iberians are perhaps not that good, could now become clear on Tuesday afternoon, when the first knockout match is on the agenda.
Does the Spanish national team die in beauty?
It is also questionable whether the aesthetically beautiful style of play, which has often been criticised in the past, will work as desired against a passionately defending and fast-switching underdog team. The fact that the southern Europeans played almost 2500 passes in the group phase is therefore only a marginal note that can be interpreted in different directions.
We do not underestimate the high-quality Furia Roja, but we would not be surprised if our prediction of a low-scoring game or at least a goalless first half pays off in the Morocco-Spain clash. For 0-0 at the break, an exciting 2.50 is offered at Bet3000.
Predicted line-up of Spain:
Simon – Jordi Alba, Pau Torres, Rodri, Carvajal – Pedri, Busquets, Gavi – Olmo, Morata, Ferran Torres
Last matches played by Spain:
World Cup Group E
02/12/2022 – Japan 2 – 1 Spain
28/11/2022 – Spain 1 – 1 Germany
23/11/2022 – Spain 7 – 0 Costa Rica
Friendlies
17/11/2022 – Jordan 1 – 3 Spain
UEFA Nations League A Grp. 2
28/09/2022 – Portugal 0 – 1 Spain
Morocco – Spain Direct comparison / H2H Ranking
We have already briefly touched on the only World Cup clash between these teams from 2018. In the group stage at the tournament in Russia, Morocco and Spain parted with a 2-2 draw. The Iberians twice managed to come back from behind. Iago Aspas scored in the last minute of the game to make it 2-2. The other two encounters from over 60 years ago can be safely disregarded in this review.
Morocco – Spain tip
For many experts, the encounter between the surprisingly strong Moroccans and the difficult-to-assess Spaniards has surprise potential. On the one hand, because there have already been some unexpected results in the tournament so far and numerous favourites have stumbled. But also because of the convincing performance of the North Africans, who finished first in Group F with seven of a possible nine points.
Apart from that, the Lions of the Atlas have an outstanding defence. Sevilla FC keeper Bono has only had to make one save. They have kept a clean sheet in six of the seven international matches under new coach Regragui. A real test of patience awaits the Luis Enrique team. We don’t believe in an early goal either and can well imagine betting odds on a goalless first 32 minutes or even a 0-0 at the break between Morocco and Spain.
Bottom line, we believe in two goals at most over the course of regulation time. By betting on the under 2.5, many eventualities are taken into account. For example, a narrow surprise victory by the Moroccans, which we do not consider illusory at all. At the same time, however, a win by the favourites for the title, which, as expected, will be close.
