Which of the two teams will secure a ticket for the knockout round?
On matchday 5 of the Europa League group stage, Molde FK will face off against FK Qarabag Agdam. We are therefore in the group of Bayer 04 Leverkusen, who already have one foot in the round of 16 and can clinch top spot in the group with a draw against BK Häcken. Behind them, things are even more exciting, as the two runners-up are level on points and therefore face a deciding match. For this reason, the betting odds between Molde and Qarabag Agdam also suggest a very close game
In view of the previous results and the clear victories against BK Häcken, the Norwegian representative is favored. Erling Moe’s side have been particularly prolific in attack of late, scoring 17 goals in their last seven games. The visitors, on the other hand, lack the necessary quality and therefore the penetrating power to keep their opponents’ defense busy. Therefore, the odds of the bookmakers between Molde and Qarabag Agdam favor a win for the home team
We recommend a draw between Molde and Qarabag Agdam. In our opinion, the home side are still favored for no real reason, as the Norwegians have not played a particularly good season so far. In addition, the visitors from Azerbaijan clearly dominated the first leg and can therefore go into the upcoming match with a lot of self-confidence.
Molde – statistics & current form
Molde are currently in second place in Group H and have picked up six points from their first four games. According to the current standings, the Norwegians would qualify for the knockout round thanks to their better goal difference, but appearances are deceptive. At the end of the group stage, the direct comparison is decisive for the final ranking. Since the first leg against FK Qarabag Agdam was lost 0:1, Erling Moe’s team would slip into the Conference League. A win against the Azerbaijani representative is therefore inevitable.
Molde are currently fifth in the domestic league and have picked up just 50 points from 29 games. With just one game to go, nothing will change in the current standings. As a result, the Norwegian record champions miss out on the international ranks by some distance. With a gap of 17 points to Bodö/Glimt, we don’t even need to talk about the championship, which is particularly sobering
Good home record
The home side play much better at home than away, picking up 44 points from 27 games in front of a home crowd. Erling Moe’s team only lost five games, including against top clubs such as Bayer 04 Leverkusen and Galatasaray Istanbul, meaning they remained unbeaten in 76.20% of their home games. This record is certainly impressive and should give them a lot of confidence ahead of the match against Qarabag Agdam.
Next big talent
Emil Breivik is one of the biggest talents in Norway’s top flight and is having a great season so far. The Molde midfielder has scored 14 goals this season and assisted a further eleven. This makes the 23-year-old Norwegian the top scorer in Erling Moe’s team. Due to his good performances, he was recently called up to the national team squad, but has yet to get any playing time. A move to one of the top leagues in Europe would therefore be the next step for us
Defensively quite solid
With 44 goals conceded in 39 games in all competitions, Molde’s back line is very solid. In addition, Erling Moe’s side have kept a clean sheet in 17 games, which is 43% of their matches. The home side’s defense should therefore not have too many problems against Qarabag Agdam’s rather weak offense.
Predicted Molde line-up:
Qarabag Agdam – Statistics & current form
Qarabag have picked up six points from their first four games and are in third place in Group H. At present, Gurban Gurbanov’s team would therefore only qualify for the knockout round of the Conference League. However, the visitors have the edge in the direct comparison with Molde, meaning a draw next Thursday could be enough for second place. Of course, the final result will then depend on the sixth and therefore final matchday. Nevertheless, the upcoming match could be a preliminary decider if one of the two teams wins.
The reigning champions are once again at the top of the table this season, picking up 29 points from their first 14 games. However, the current season is nowhere near as dominant as previous years. The visitors have won the championship nine times in the past ten years, have won a total of ten championship titles and have thus become record champions in a very short space of time. Previously, Neftchi Baku (9 titles) were the best team in Azerbaijan for many years
Solid away record
The visitors picked up 22 points from twelve away games in all competitions, losing just four games. Compared to their home record (30 points from 14 games), there is hardly any difference. Nevertheless, we must not forget that Bayer 04 Leverkusen have been the only opponents to have hosted the team from Azerbaijan. As a result, the visiting team are clearly the underdogs against Molde
Dangerous offensive duo
Juninho and Leandro Andrade are by far the two most dangerous players in the Qarabag Agdam ranks. The attacking duo have already scored 19 goals this season and have also set up nine goals. Hardly a game goes by without a goal from either player. Nevertheless, the visitors are far too harmless overall and have only found the back of the net three times in the Europa League
Difficult to crack
With 27 goals conceded in 26 games in all competitions, the visiting team have been very solid defensively, conceding an average of just 1.04 goals per game. Nevertheless, Gurban Gurbanov’s side have only managed to keep a clean sheet eight times, meaning they have conceded at least one goal in 69.30% of all matches. We would therefore be very surprised if the visitors can keep a clean sheet next Thursday.
Predicted line-up of Qarabag Agdam:
Molde – Qarabag Agdam Direct comparison / H2H result
The direct comparison between the two teams goes somewhat surprisingly to the visiting team. Qarabag managed to win one of the two matches against Molde, while the second game ended in a draw. In addition, Gurban Gurbanov’s team were clearly superior in the first leg and could have won the game by a higher margin. For this reason, our prediction between Molde and Qarabag Agdam is more in favor of the underdog
Molde – Qarabag Agdam betting tip
We play the betting tip “both teams score – yes” between Molde and Qarabag Agdam. There is a lot at stake for the home side in particular, as only a win will keep their chances of reaching the knockout round realistic. With their fans behind them, Erling Moe’s team should also be in control of the game. On the other hand, the visitors showed in the first leg that they are capable of posing a threat to the Norwegians. We therefore expect a very exciting game with at least one goal on both sides of the pitch
The bookmakers favor the hosts in this duel and expect the Norwegians to win. However, we disagree and expect a match of equals. This is mainly due to the fact that the Azerbaijani representative was clearly superior in the first leg and “only” won 1:0 in the end. Alternatively, we therefore recommend the odds for “X2” between Molde and Qarabag Agdam.