Game 1 after the Jesse Marsch era for Leeds

There’s only one game in the motherland of football this week. At Old Trafford Stadium, a catch-up match from the eighth matchday of the current season is on the agenda. The starting situation is relatively clear, as the hosts have their sights set on the top flight, while the visitors must tremble to stay in the league.

In the clash between Manchester United and Leeds, betting on the home side seems obvious. But the Whites opted for a change of manager on Tuesday and will be hoping for a surprise point win at the house favourites.

Looking at the current table in the English top flight is a little misleading, as the teams have played between 20 and 22 games. However, the fact is that the Red Devils can catch up with big city rivals Manchester City in terms of points with a home win on Wednesday night.

The momentum is definitely in favour of the home side, as Leeds are still without a league win since the re-start, plus Manchester United have just regained their home strength in recent months. On Wednesday evening, odds of 1.50 are offered for a home win between Manchester United and Leeds. A surprise three-goal win for the visitors, on the other hand, offers odds of more than six times that amount.

The post-match match is also very interesting from a red-white-red perspective. For the first time in 1,740 days, there could be a duel between two Austrian players in the Premier League. On the Manchester United side, Marcel Sabitzer got his first minutes of action last weekend and could replace the suspended Casemiro. For Leeds, Maximilian Wöber has been in the line-up for a few weeks now.

Manchester United – Statistics & current form

The current week has been very emotional for Red Devils supporters. It was the 65th anniversary of the crash of British European Airways Flight 609, which killed 23 people over Munich, including eight Manchester United players. Wednesday’s match is all about this tragedy.

Bearish home record under ten Hag

At the start of the season, Manchester United were a shadow of former days even under former Ajax coach Eric ten Hag. In particular, the non-performance at Brentford caused much derision. However, the tide turned in early February and the outlook is more positive than it has been for a long time. Since the 2012/13 season, Manchester United have only once had more points on the board after 21 matchdays than this season. They currently have 42 points, compared to 44 points in 2017/18.

A large part of the current very good season (plus seven points compared to last year) is undoubtedly the returned home strength. In ten games, 25 points were collected, only the game against Brighton & Hove Albion on the first matchday was lost. Since then, there have been eight wins and one draw. Across all competitions, there have even been 13 home victories in a row at Old Trafford. Triumph 14 against a team in crisis should therefore only be a formality.

However, Eric ten Hag will have to do without Casemiro, who was sent off for assault against Crystal Palace last weekend. The Brazilian newcomer is the guarantee of success this season. With him, Manchester United lost three out of 30 games (24-3-3), without him there were three defeats in four games.

However, due to the over-form of Marcus Rashford (scored in the last five PL home games), the run of success should continue. Home win number 14 in a row is very likely and between Manchester United and Leeds the odds for this are still in the acceptable range.

Predicted Manchester United line-up:
de Gea – Shaw, Martinez, Varane, Dalot – Sabitzer, Fred – Rashford, Bruno Fernandes, Antony – Weghorst

Last matches played by Manchester United:

Premier League
04/02/2023 – Manchester United 2 – 1 Crystal Palace

Carabao Cup
02/02/2023 – Manchester United 2 – 0 Nottingham Forest

FA Cup
29/01/2023 – Manchester United 3 – 1 Reading

Carabao Cup
26/01/2023 – Nottingham Forest 0 – 3 Manchester United

Premier League
22/01/2023 – Arsenal FC 3 – 2 Manchester United

Leeds – Statistics & current form

Seven league games without a win were finally too much. After almost eleven months, Leeds completed the separation from head coach Jesse Marsch. The former Bullen coach averaged just 1.16 points. A 1-0 away defeat at promoted Nottingham Forest was the final straw. Shortly before his sacking, he convinced compatriot Weston McKennie to move to the Whites. With McKennie, Aaronson and Tyler Adams, there are now three US-Americans in the squad.

Seven defeats in ten away games

Attractive attacking football, such as there was under Marcelo Bielsa, was not to be seen at Leeds under Jesse Marsch. In addition, the very vulnerable defence could not be stabilised either. Goalkeeper Ilhan Meslier has already conceded 34 goals this season.

Especially away from home, Leeds have been very disappointing so far. Their only away win came at Anfield Road against Jürgen Klopp and his Reds. Otherwise, there have only been two draws, and the team has had to return home seven times without any points in its luggage.

The team, which will be coached by interim coach Cameron Toshack on Wednesday, is currently only above the ominous line thanks to its better goal difference. After seven points from the first three games, Leeds only managed eleven meagre points in the following 17 games. A change of coach sometimes has a liberating effect, but at present there is no argument why a prediction on the crisis-ridden visitors should be justified between Manchester United and Leeds.

Rather, a heavy defeat is also likely. Having won six of their first seven PL games during the week (Tuesday to Thursday), Leeds have lost that strength in recent months. For nine “midweek games” Leeds are without a win and conceded no less than 30 goals.

Predicted Leeds line-up:
Meslier – Struijk, Wöber, Koch, Ayling – Adams, Roca – Gnonto, Harrison, Sinisterra – Bamford

Last matches played by Leeds:

Premier League
05/02/2023 – Nottingham Forest 1 – 0 Leeds

FA Cup
28/01/2023 – Accrington 1 – 3 Leeds

Premier League
22/01/2023 – Leeds 0 – 0 Brentford

FA Cup
19/01/2023 – Leeds 5 – 2 Cardiff

Premier League
14/01/2023 – Aston Villa 2 – 1 Leeds

Manchester United – Leeds Direct comparison / H2H record

Not only does the momentum favour Manchester United over Leeds, but the direct comparison also clearly underlines this tendency. In the last 17 Premier League matches, Leeds have won only once (at home in September 2002). Otherwise, there have been eleven wins and five draws for the favourites. At Old Trafford, Leeds have gone 17 games without a win, with their last away victory dating back to 1981.

Manchester United – Leeds Tip

With Casemiro, Manchester United have gained a huge amount of stability this season, but the brawling Brazilian will have to miss out on Wednesday. In the first of two games against Leeds, the Red Devil are considered house favourites. The momentum, the home record (13 wins in a row) and the weak “midweek results” of the visitors justify the low odds on the home win between Manchester United and Leeds.

Leeds will not be able to shake off their great uncertainty even with a new coach. The ten Hag team will want to press the tempo from the start and push for an early decision. In this respect, we are focusing on the HT/FT 1/1 prediction between Manchester United and Leeds. Five units are targeted for this bet. Due to the many goals conceded for Leeds, a slightly riskier Over 3.5 is also in our top tips.