Will Guardiola be in for a surprise exit?
In the past, numerous coaches of England’s top teams have expressed their displeasure with their teams’ tightly-scheduled fixtures. The Champions League participants in particular are once again in the midst of a mammoth programme. Manchester City, for example, will be playing their fourth competitive match in the last ten days on Tuesday evening.
The enormous workload, however, does not change the fact that Manchester City are odds-on favourites against Wycombe, despite the fact that coach Pep Guardiola is likely to rest most of his stars for next weekend’s crucial top-of-the-table clash against Chelsea. With few exceptions, the Citizens’ starting eleven will have a completely new look.
While the Sky Blues will give the third round match in the Carabao Cup the lowest priority, it is a completely different story for the visitors from southern Buckinghamshire. For the third division club, the match at the Etihad Stadium is the “highlight of the year”, which they have earned themselves by winning two penalty shootouts in the first two rounds.
Although a surprise coup by the second division relegated side is of course highly unlikely, it can be useful to make a prediction between Manchester City and Wycombe that the home side’s victory may not be as highas some will no doubt expect in the run-up.
Manchester City – Statistics & current form
It’s been one hit after another for Manchester City these days. After the Guardiola eleven celebrated a successful CL opener against RB Leipzig (6:3) and won 1:0 against Leicester in the Premier League, they had to cope with a first setbackat the weekend. The Citizens only managed a 0-0 draw at home against Ralph Hasenhüttl’s defensively very passionate Saints.
The reigning champions dropped to fifth place in the standings. They are three points behind leaders Chelsea, who will be the next opponents of the star ensemble from the industrial city next Saturday. After that, they travel to Paris to face the millionaire team in the top flight, before Liverpool await them in the league again.
EFL Cup at an inappropriate time
With this gruelling programme and a total of three consecutive English weeks, it quickly becomes clear that Tuesday night’s League Cup match against a third division side is nothing more than a chore. Consequently, the Catalan coach will be sparing almost all the key players who could be considered for a starting role against the Blues at the weekend against the Wanderers.
The first eleven on Tuesday evening will therefore largely be made up of reserve and youth players With injuries to John Stones and Aymeric Laporte, the defensive alternatives are somewhat lacking at the moment, so Nathan Ake is expected to stabilise the defence in the cup as well. Cancelo, Fernandinho, Ferran Torres and Phil Foden, who is still looking for match practice after an injury, are likely to be the other stars who will start and thus also provide the difference in quality that makes a bet on a home win between Manchester City and Wycombe virtually without alternative.
Citizens aim for fifth consecutive League Cup triumph
To conclude with an interesting statistic, it should be noted that the Himmelblauen did not cover themselves in glory in the early rounds last year on their way to a fourth consecutive ELF Cup title.
Only in one of the total of five matches in 2020/21 was the line of 4.5 goals surpassed; in round three, for example, there was a contested 2-1 against underdog Bournemouth. These facts and figures in conjunction with the C eleven suggest that between Manchester City and Wycombe, the odds on a comparatively narrow success or on relatively few goals in the course of the game contain an attractive value.
Predicted line-up of Manchester City:
Carson; Walker, Ake, Wilson-Esbrand, Cancelo; Palmer, Fernandinho, Lavia; Foden, F Torres, Edozie
Last matches played by Manchester City:
Wycombe – Statistics & recent form
Last season Wycombe Wanderers were still second-tier on the road. In the end, they only lacked a single point to secure their place in the league. In the end, however, eleven wins and ten draws in 25 defeats were not enough to keep them out of the bottom three. After a year in the Championship, the team went straight back down to League One.
However, because good structures have developed in southern Buckinghamshire in recent years and continuity seems to be the trump card, Gareth Ainsworth was allowed to keep his coaching job. He has been in this position with the “Chairboys” since 2013 and has also celebrated some successes in the cup during this time In the FA Cup, for example, Wycombe reached the fourth round in both 2016/17 and the previous year 2020/21, but were eliminated there both times against Tottenham.
Good start to the season thanks to stable defence
In the League Cup, on the other hand, the record does not read quite as exhilarating. In twelve games so far, there have only been four victories for the now 48-year-old. Two of those four victories came in the current season, when Exeter City and Stevenage FC were defeated on penalties in round one and round two respectively. The anticipation is now all the greater for the clash with the reigning English champions.
The fact that a prediction of a maximum of four goals after 90 minutes could pay off between Manchester City and Wycombe is partly due to the results in the league so far, because with 14 points from seven games, the Wanderers have started well They have only conceded more than one goal so far in the away match against the top favourites in Sunderland (1:3). In none of the seven league games mentioned above was the mark of 4.5 goals broken. Only two teams have conceded fewer goals than the relegated second division side so far this season.
On Tuesday night, however, Ainsworth’s side will again be looking to take a defensive approachto keep the score level for as long as possible and keep their mini-chance of progress alive. Even in the event of a deficit, the “Chairboys” will not take any incalculable risks and instead want to avoid a defeat. All in all, there is much to suggest that the Blues, who have at least one very well-known player in their ranks in the form of cult player Akinfenwa, will have to concede three or four goals at the most.
Predicted Wycombe line-up:
Przybek; Ram, Tafazolli, Jacobson; Kaikai, Burley, Pendlebury, Obita; Scowen, Akinfenwa, Mehmeti
Last matches played by Wycombe:
Manchester City – Wycombe Direct Comparison / H2H Record
The 1995/96 season, when the English League Cup was also played in the early rounds with first and second legs, has seen the only two head-to-head duels between these teams so far. At Wycombe, the Wanderers managed to earn a 0-0 draw, but in the second leg, the Citizens made short work of them in a 4-0 win. Of course, this look at history does not have any relevant influence on the Manchester City vs Wycombe prediction for Tuesday night’s match.
Manchester City – Wycombe Tip
The fight for the English championship as well as the race for the cup in the premier league have absolute priority for Manchester City this season. Admittedly, this has already been the case in previous years, and yet the Citizens have also secured the EFL Cup title in the last four seasons.
The mission to defend the title, however, is not under a particularly good star on Tuesday evening, especially as Guardiola’s team is playing its fourth competitive match in ten days and still has games against Chelsea, Paris St. Germain and Liverpool on the agenda in the next week and a half. Consequently, the coach will not take any risks at all and send a slightly improved C eleven onto the pitch against the underdogs. Between Manchester City and Wycombe, the betting odds are therefore even a little too low in our eyes in favour of the reigning champions.
In view of this constellation and the fact that the Citizens have not necessarily been notable for their emphatic victories in the EFL Cup in the past, but have often only done what was necessary to advance to the next round, we are convinced that the result on Tuesday evening will be closer than expected.
Therefore, between Manchester City and Wycombe, we opt for the tip that a maximum of four goals will be scored in the course of the match
