Goal festival in the first leg in England?
After the semifinals of the 2015/16 season and the round of 16 of the 2019/20 season, last year’s finalists Manchester City and record winners Real Madrid will face each other in a UEFA Champions League knockout round for the third time. In a total of three away games at the Citizens, the Blancos have never come out on top (two draws, one defeat).
Even now, at least the outstanding home record clearly speaks in favour of the Sky Blues. Manchester City are unbeaten in 19 home games in the top flight (17 wins, two draws), while the Madrilenians have only won one of their last six away games in England in particular (two draws, three defeats). Consequently, in the run-up to the clash between Manchester City and Real Madrid, the odds are swinging in the direction of the home side.
Karim Benzema, who scored a hat-trick in the round of 16 against PSG and in the quarter-final against Chelsea, is likely to be the most important player in the match. The Frenchman is already on twelve Champions League goals in just nine appearances this season.
However, considering that the Blancos have also conceded goals in their last six knockout games, it makes a lot of sense to bet on a high-scoring Manchester City vs Real Madrid match. We recommend betting on over 2.5 goals.
Manchester City – Statistics & current form
Last summer, Manchester City reached the final of the Champions League for the first time in the club’s history. However, Pep Guardiola’s squad missed out on the big goal of finally winning the trophy. Accordingly, all those responsible set their sights high for the new season.
In the end, the Citizens finished first in Group A with PSG, Leipzig and Bruges. But not only did the Sky Blues lose two of their six games, they also conceded at least one goal in every single match. So, including the Champions League final, there have been seven consecutive matches in the top flight in which they have always conceded goals.
Unbeaten in 19 Champions League home games
The Sky Blues’ run in the knockout rounds is all the more surprising. In none of the four games against Sporting Lisbon and Atlético Madrid did they concede any more goals, which at the moment makes it look as if the Citizens have closed their biggest open gap.
Manchester City also have an outstanding home record. The reigning English champions have not lost in 19 international home games. Only two of the 19 games have ended in a draw (17 wins).
Still one point ahead of the Reds in the Premier League
With Manchester City against Real Madrid, the Sky Blues’ next home win is a good bet, especially as City have not lost any of their three European home games against the Blancos so far (one win, two draws).
Guardiola’s team can therefore go into the first leg with a broad chest, especially as the dress rehearsals have also been successful recently. The Citizens have won their last two league games in the Premier League with a total of 8:1 goals and are defending their one-point lead over Liverpool with five matchdays to go.
Predicted Manchester City line-up:
Ederson – Zinchenko – Laporte – Stones – Walker – Gündogan – Rodri – De Bruyne – Silva – Mahrez – Foden
Last matches played by Manchester City:
Champions League Final
27/04/2022 – Manchester City 4 – 3 Real Madrid
Premier League
23/04/2022 – Manchester City 5 – 1 Watford
21/04/2022 – Manchester City 3 – 0 Brighton
FA Cup
16/04/2022 – Manchester City 2 – 3 Liverpool FC
Champions League Final
14/04/2022 – Atletico Madrid 0 – 0 Manchester City
Spain Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
For Real Madrid it looks much clearer on a national level. Admittedly, the Blancos disgraced themselves in the Clásico just over a month ago, losing 4-0 to Barcelona at the Bernabéu. However, it was their only defeat in La Liga in their last 13 games (ten wins, two draws).
Also because the Blaugrana fluffed again at the weekend, the championship title is only a formality. Five matchdays before the end of the season, the Merengues are 15 points ahead. Accordingly, the Galacticos can now fully concentrate on the top flight, where they are aiming to reach the final for the first time since 2017/18.
Having scored more than once in seven of their last eight Champions League matches
The Madrilenians’ recent record is capable of improvement, having won only two of their last seven games in the knockout rounds of the Champions League (two draws, three defeats). On the other hand, the Blancos have only won one of their last six matches in England.
That win on the island, however, was a 3:1 victory at Stamford Bridge a few weeks ago. In this match, the Merengues once again scored more than one goal in a game. The Spaniards have now scored at least twice in seven of their last eight Champions League matches.
Karim Benzema with hat-trick in round of 16 and quarter-final
This semi-final first leg could also be a goal-filled affair. Especially if Karim Benezema ignites again. The Frenchman has already scored twelve goals in nine appearances, but he is also the Blancos’ sole attacking entertainer, which should make them more predictable.
Predicted Real Madrid line-up:
Courtois – Mendy – Alaba – Militao – Carvajal – Kroos – Casemiro – Modric – Júnior – Valverde – Benzema
Last matches played by Real Madrid:
Champions League Final
27/04/2022 – Manchester City 4 – 3 Real Madrid
La Liga
21/04/2022 – Osasuna Pamplona 1 – 3 Real Madrid
18/04/2022 – FC Sevilla 2 – 3 Real Madrid
Champions League Final
13/04/2022 – Real Madrid 2 – 3 Chelsea FC
La Liga
10/04/2022 – Real Madrid 2 – 0 Getafe
Manchester City – Real Madrid Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 2 – 2 – 2
Six times both teams have faced each other in a competitive match so far and with two wins and two draws each, the record is still completely balanced. Manchester City and Real Madrid met in the Champions League semi-final back in the 2015/16 season and after a goalless draw in Manchester, a 1-0 home win was enough for the Blancos to reach the final.
Manchester City – Real Madrid Tip
For Manchester City against Real Madrid, the prediction goes to the Sky Blues, who have won 17 of their last 19 home games in the Champions League (two draws). The Citizens are also unbeaten in three international home games against the Spanish record champions (one win, two draws). Accordingly, the role of favourite is clearly assigned to Guardiola’s eleven.
However, the Blancos already surprised in the quarter-finals with a 3-1 first leg win at Stamford Bridge, when Karim Benzema in particular was once again unstoppable. Given that City have conceded goals in seven of their last 11 Champions League games, while Madrid have scored at least twice in seven of their last eight, the goal bet makes the most sense.
