A taste of the final in the playoffs
While teams like Lille, Aston Villa and Leverkusen have a break and won’t be back in action until March, the playoffs for the last 16 will see the last two Champions League winners go head-to-head – the new format makes it possible. That said, it’s not that easy to predict the outcome of this first leg between Manchester City and Real Madrid. Neither team has exactly covered themselves in glory in the league phase of the Champions League.
While the Blancos have at least won their last three league games 11-3, the Sky Blues were still in the throes of trepidation due to their recent 4-2 defeat at PSG in mid-January. A last-gasp 3-1 home win over Bruges saved the Sky Blues at the last second, but they could hardly have received a tougher draw. When it comes to Manchester City against Real Madrid, it is important to bear in mind that the Citizens have already been eliminated three times in the knockout round of the Champions League by the Blancos – more than any other team in Europe.
While Manchester City is very strong at home and has not lost any of their last 35 Champions League home games, Real Madrid, as the defending champions, have not lost any of their last six games in the knockout rounds of the Champions League (two wins, four draws) and are definitely capable of at least getting the draw in England.
Manchester City – Statistics & current form
With a 15-point gap between them and Liverpool FC, Manchester City have not played a role in the Premier League for quite some time. The Sky Blues are even in danger of not qualifying for the Champions League again after their recent 5-1 defeat at Arsenal FC and are currently only fifth.
It would therefore be important for them to make the play-offs, which they only just managed to qualify for, and to get as far as possible in the Champions League. However, the Citizens are still not at their best. With several key players rested, Guardiola’s side only just avoided embarrassment in the FA Cup on Saturday, eventually winning 2-1 at third-division side Leyton Orient.
Despite a strong home record, Manchester City have some problems
Across all competitions, they have recorded three wins from their last four competitive games (one defeat). However, this cannot really hide the immense difficulties that the English champions are facing.
This is also reflected in the odds for Manchester City against Real Madrid. At LeoVegas, where new customers can currently claim up to €100 with the LeoVegas bonus, the odds for Tip 1 are 2.38. This is despite the fact that the Citizens have not lost in 35 home games in the Champions League.
Real Madrid is a bogey opponent for Manchester City
The record in the knockout rounds has also been excellent of late. Pep Guardiola’s team have not lost any of their last 11 knockout games in the Champions League (six wins, five draws) and, on their way to last season’s second consecutive final, only lost out to today’s opponents Real Madrid on penalties after two draws.
The Blancos, against whom there was a brilliant 4-0 home win in the 2022/23 semi-final that paved the way for the title, are also the Sky Blues’ bogey team. Manchester City have already been knocked out of the competition by Real Madrid on three occasions after two legs – more than against any other team in Europe.
Provisional line-up for Manchester City:
Real Madrid – statistics & current form
Real Madrid also performed poorly in the league phase of the Champions League, as evidenced by results such as the 0-1 defeat at OSC Lille, the 3-1 home defeat to AC Milan and the 2-0 defeat at Liverpool FC. At least at the national level, however, the narrow lead in the table remains after the recent 1-1 derby draw against Atlético Madrid.
However, the problem for the Blancos is that with such a small lead, every point counts, which is why this high frequency of English weeks is hard to manage. Finally, a number of key players are out of the galactic lineup, particularly in defense, which severely limits the possibility of rotation.
Real Madrid with unbeaten streak in knockout games
Nevertheless, the white ballet is of course a dangerous team that, as the record Champions League winners and reigning champions, also plays a role in the Champions League. However, it won’t be easy after finishing the league phase in a disappointing 11th place.
Should the betting tip of the Royal progression against Real Madrid come true, either city rival Atlético Madrid or Bayer Leverkusen would be waiting in the round of 16. The Blancos’ strong record in the knockout rounds of the premier class, where they have not lost in any of the last six games (two wins, four draws), speaks in their favor.
Real Madrid with low win rate against Manchester City
However, Manchester City is also a tough opponent for the Madrilenians, despite the fact that the Sky Blues have already been knocked out three times in knockout duels. After all, the Merengues have only won three of the twelve games against the Citizens (four draws, five defeats).
The Galacticos have a lower win rate (25 percent) against no other team in Europe that Real Madrid have played at least five times (nothing to lose against a draw at the City of Manchester Stadium, which would be enough to put them in a good position, especially with so many absentees, a defensive approach, especially in midfield, makes sense.
Provisional line-up for Real Madrid:
Manchester City – Real Madrid Head to head:
Head to head: 4 – 5 – 3
The two teams have faced each other twelve times so far, with all the duels dating back to the Champions League. Manchester City leads the direct comparison with four wins, but as the defending champions, they were recently beaten by the Blancos on penalties in the quarter-finals of the 2023/24 season after two draws.
Nevertheless, of all the teams Real Madrid have played at least five CL games against, the Spanish have a lower win rate against no other club than against the Citizens (only 25 percent).
Manchester City vs. Real Madrid tip
The trend among the best bookmakers is towards predicting a home win for Manchester City against Real Madrid, who have not lost in 35 Champions League home games. However, the Blancos have recently won three consecutive Champions League titles and have won the title in two of the last three seasons. In both cases, they eliminated the Citizens on their way to lifting the trophy, and now they face a big nemesis.
Although there have been many goal-festivals between the two clubs, we expect a tactical start and a not-too-hectic game. Accordingly, we are betting on there being a maximum of one goal at half-time.
For under 1.5 hits in the first half, betting odds of 1.70 are available for Manchester City against Real Madrid, which we are taking up with three units at Interwetten.
