Are the home-strength Citizens out of their depth?
RB Leipzig are not out of the Champions League quarter-finals yet. However, after the 1-1 draw from the first leg against Manchester City, the board that the Saxons have to drill at the Etihad Stadium is extremely thick. After all, the Sky Blues have not lost any of their last 23 Champions League home games here (21 wins, two draws). Accordingly, it is likely that Manchester City’s betting on the Citizens progressing against RB Leipzig will pay off.
The in-form Saxons do not have much to lose, however, as they celebrated a successful dress rehearsal at the weekend with a 3-0 home victory over Borussia Mönchengladbach. RBL are also unbeaten in five consecutive Champions League matches (four wins, one draw).
However, Manchester City vs RB Leipzig predictions must also take into account that not only have the Red Bulls not won any of their last five matches in the knockout stages of the top flight (one draw, three defeats), but they have only scored one goal in total in those four matches.
Making matters worse, away trips to England in general, and Manchester City in particular, have so far been less than enjoyable for the reigning DFB Cup winners. RB Leipzig lost their last away game at the Etihad Stadium in the 2021/22 group stage 6-3 and have conceded a total of 13 goals (an average of 4.3 per game) in three consecutive away defeats at Premier League teams.
Consequently, we see the greatest value in betting on the Sky Blues to win in regulation time. Since goals are also expected, we also take the bet on more than 2.5 goals in order to get a little more out of the odds.
Manchester City – Statistics & current form
Manchester City Football Club continue to be driven by the big goal of finally winning the Champions League and making Manchester only the second city behind Milan to produce two Champions League winners.
In 2021, however, the Sky Blues missed their only chance so far in a losing final (0-1 to Chelsea), before last season’s semi-final against Real Madrid was the end of the line. That defeat to the Blancos, however, was the only Champions League match lost in their last 13 games (seven wins, five draws).
Unbeaten in 23 Champions League home games
The first and foremost reason for betting on Manchester City’s progress against RB Leipzig is the incredible home strength of Pep Guardiola’s team. The current Premier League runners-up not only lead the home table in the highest English division with 34 out of a possible 39 points.
The Etihad Stadium has also been an impregnable fortress on the international stage. The Sky Blues have not lost any of their last 23 Champions League home games (21 wins, two draws) and could now break a record set by Arsenal in this competition. The Gunners became the first English club to go unbeaten in 24 Champions League home games between 2004 and 2009.
Recent four wins in a row again with 10-1 scoreline
Manchester City also go into the second leg with real momentum. Since the 1-1 draw at the Red Bull Arena, Pep Guardiola’s men have played four competitive games and won all four of them by 10-1 goals.
In total, the Sky Blues have not lost in eight matches (six wins, two draws). In addition, they have a strong home record against Bundesliga representatives. When playing at home against German clubs internationally, there have been nine home victories in a row in which the Citizens have always scored at least two goals.
Last Manchester City games:
Premier League
12/03/2023 – Crystal Palace 0 – 1 Manchester City
04/03/2023 – Manchester City 2 – 0 Newcastle
FA Cup
01/03/2023 – Bristol City 0 – 3 Manchester City
Premier League
26/02/2023 – Bournemouth 1 – 4 Manchester City
Champions League Final
23/02/2023 – RB Leipzig 1 – 1 Manchester City
RB Leipzig – Statistics & current form
RB Leipzig are currently participating in the Champions League for the fifth time in the club’s history. The Red Bulls’ best run came in the 2019/20 season, when they eventually made it all the way to the semi-finals, before last season’s Group of Death with Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain saw them end their campaign in the preliminary round.
Briefly, it looked like the next exit in the group stage after zero points from the first two preliminary round matches of the 2022/23 season. However, the Saxons then secured four wins in a row to reach the last 16 for the third time in their history. RBL are now unbeaten in five Champions League matches (four wins, one draw).
Recent three defeats in a row at Premier League clubs
After a weak start to the season and an early change of coach, the form curve in the Bundesliga has also shown a clear upward trend of late.
At the weekend, the Red Bulls moved past Union Berlin with a 3-0 home win over Gladbach and climbed to third place.
While working to set the course for another year in the top flight, however, they will now look for the chance at the Etihad Stadium to perhaps stay in the competition after all. However, RBL have lost their last three Champions League away games in England all while conceding 13 goals (an average of 4.3 per game).
Only ninth in the Bundesliga away table
The Saxons’ record on away grounds in the Bundesliga also reads anything but impressive. Marco Rose’s side have won only four of their twelve Bundesliga away games (four draws, four defeats) and rank ninth in the away table.
According to the betting odds, the Red Bulls are correspondingly clear underdogs against RB Leipzig in Manchester City, who have also been without another win in the knockout rounds of the top flight for four games (one draw, three defeats) and have scored just one goal in those four matches.
Last matches played by RB Leipzig:
Bundesliga
11/03/2023 – RB Leipzig 3 – 0 Gladbach
04/03/2023 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 1 RB Leipzig
25/02/2023 – RB Leipzig 2 – 1 Eintracht Frankfurt
Champions League Final
23/02/2023 – RB Leipzig 1 – 1 Manchester City
Bundesliga
18/02/2023 – VfL Wolfsburg 0 – 3 RB Leipzig
Manchester City – RB Leipzig Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 1 – 1 – 1
Three times the two teams have faced each other so far and the record is even. Last season, RBL suffered a 6-3 away defeat at the Etihad Stadium in the first leg before winning 2-1 at home in the second leg with nothing at stake for the Sky Blues. The first leg of this year’s Round of 16 tie was a 1-1 draw.
Manchester City – RB Leipzig Tip
The odds on Manchester City against RB Leipzig are clearly in favour of the Sky Blues, who are unbeaten in 23 Champions League home games (21 wins, two draws). Accordingly, the draw at the Red Bull Arena from the first leg should already have been half the battle for the Sky Blues, who will, however, be facing a thoroughly in-form opponent who are unbeaten in five Champions League matches (four wins, one draw).
Nevertheless, our prediction for Manchester City against RB Leipzig is clearly for the Citizens to progress. We combine tip 1 with a bet on more than 2.5 goals, as the home side’s goalscoring prowess means that a few goals are to be expected. Last season, City beat the Saxons at home with 6:3.
