Which playing philosophy will prevail?
For the first time in European football history, Manchester City and Atletico Madrid will face each other in an official competitive match on Tuesday night. There could hardly have been a much bigger stage than the quarter-finals of the Champions League for this eagerly awaited premiere. For the two coaches Pep Guardiola and Diego Simeone, however, it is already the fourth meeting. Currently, the City coach leads the personal duel with two wins and one defeat.
The reigning English champions are also favourites to progress to the last eight. Before the first leg between Manchester City and Atletico Madrid, the odds for the Citizens to reach the semi-finals are not even at 1.30 at the top. However, the visitors from the Spanish capital have proven time and again in recent years that they are comfortable in the underdog role.
On Tuesday evening, the “Colchoneros” will be primarily concerned with keeping the score as close to zero as possible for as long as possible and securing a decent starting position for the second leg next week.
It will therefore depend on the defence, which for long stretches of the season did not necessarily radiate the stability and sovereignty that it did in its heyday, but which, like the team as a whole, has recently shown an upward trend in form. Without a doubt, the Spanish team’s recent consistently good performances must be taken into account in order to make a suitable prediction between Manchester City and Atletico Madrid.
Manchester City – Statistics & current form
For many years, Manchester City have been seeking the greatest possible triumph at club level. Despite the fact that the Citizens regularly start the Champions League season as one of the most promising candidates, the longed-for title victory has never been achieved. In 2021, the Citizens came as close as ever, but ultimately lost the all-English final to Chelsea by a narrow 0:1 margin.
Nevertheless, the Sky Blues’ record in the top flight is, of course, excellent: they have lost only one of their last nine knockout matches in the Champions League. Instead, there have been seven wins and one draw. Since Pep Guardiola took over in 2016/17, no other club in the knockout phase (from the round of 16 onwards) has had such a high win rate as Manchester City. 14 of the 22 matches have been won.
Manchester City are the epitome of consistency
Consistency at this level is just one of the many reasons why Manchester City’s home game against Atletico Madrid on Tuesday night is the most sustainable betting option. The current form of the Premier League leaders is also impressive. For example, they have lost only one of their last 20 competitive matches. At the weekend, the dress rehearsal at Burnley was a success with a never-threatening 2-0 victory.
Once again, it was the defence that made an extremely secure impression. In the supposedly strongest league in the world, the Citizens have conceded only 18 goals in 30 games (best value!), in the two round of 16 games against Benfica Lisbon, keeper Ederson kept his clean sheet as well as in six of the past nine Premier League matches.
Will City go without conceding another goal?
Although they conceded a surprising number of goals in the group stage, we believe the defence will hold on Tuesday night. Those who follow this assessment can additionally play the odds on the favourites to win “to nil” between Manchester City and Atletico Madrid.
When it comes to personnel, coach Guardiola is still annoyed about the unnecessary red card Kyle Walker received in the last, insignificant group game against Leipzig. The right-back will have to watch out for the last time on Tuesday. The situation is further complicated by the fact that Ruben Dias has to miss the match due to injury. John Stones, who has been ailing lately, should return to the starting eleven. On the offensive side, everything of note is present. One of them is Kevin de Bruyne, who is about to make his 50th Champions League appearance for the Sky Blues.
Predicted Manchester City line-up:
Ederson; Cancelo, Laporte, Stones, Zinchenko; Silva, Rodri, De Bruyne; Mahrez, Foden, Sterling
Last matches played by Manchester City:
Premier League
04/02 2022 – Burnley 0 – 2 Manchester City
FA Cup
03/20 2022 – Southampton 1 – 4 Manchester City
Premier League
03/14 2022 – Crystal Palace 0 – 0 Manchester City
Champions League Final
03/09 2022 – Manchester City 0 – 0 Sporting CP
Premier League
03/06 2022 – Manchester City 4 – 1 Manchester United
Atletico Madrid – Statistics & current form
Can Atletico Madrid win the Champions League title in 2021/22? If you look at the betting odds for the overall victory in the premier league, the betting providers consider such a scenario rather unlikely. For every euro wagered, 26 euros would be paid out if the Spaniards won the Henkelpot. Of the eight remaining teams, the capitals are only in sixth place in the corresponding ranking.
But anyone who has followed European football in recent years knows that there is hardly a more uncomfortable team at this level than the “Rojiblancos”. Mentality, willingness to run and strength in duels, coupled with unbridled ambition and a coach who is going crazy on the sidelines, have already led the reigning Spanish champions to the final twice in the Simeone era. Both times, however, Real Madrid emerged as the lucky winners.
Is history repeating itself from the 70s?
If we now delve deep into the statistics of European football history, Madrid fans may well have hopes of winning the title. In fact, Juventus is the only club to have managed to knock Manchester United and Manchester City out of the same competition in the same season. In 1976/77, the “old lady” even won the UEFA Cup… A good omen for the Spaniards?
The fact is that the red and whites will choose a defensive approach against the Citizens, who are usually very dominant. That worked pretty well against Manchester United. After 180 minutes of play, only one goal was conceded. Especially at Old Trafford, the English record champions could not do much against the Madrid defence with its many legs. In the end, goalkeeper Jan Oblak kept the nil for the 30th time in his 67th Champions League match – an absolute top value!
Atletico are in a really good mood
Finally, it is worth mentioning that the “Colchoneros” have found their top form in recent weeks. In La Liga, there have been six wins in a row, four of them with at least a two-goal difference and three including a clean sheet.
In total, coach “Cholo” Simeone’s team have conceded only four goals in their last eight matches, which can be taken as an indication that a potential home win for the favourites between Manchester City and Atletico Madrid will not be particularly high.
With the exception of the suspended Yannick Carrasco and the injured Hector Herrera, all men are on board. On the offensive side, hopes are pinned on the in-form Joao Felix on the one hand and Antoine Griezmann on the other, who has been involved in six goals in his last six CL matches (four goals, two assists) and leads the internal goalscoring list at the Spanish capital club in this competition with 25 goals in 55 matches.
Predicted line-up of Atletico Madrid:
Oblak; Savic, Gimenez, Reinildo; Llorente, De Paul, Kondogbia, Koke, Lodi; Griezmann, Felix
Last matches played by Atletico Madrid:
La Liga
04/02 2022 – Atletico Madrid 4 – 1 Deportivo Alaves
03/19 2022 – Rayo Vallecano 0 – 1 Atletico Madrid
Champions League Final
03/15 2022 – Manchester United 0 – 1 Atletico Madrid
La Liga
03/11 2022 – Atletico Madrid 2 – 1 Cadiz
03/06 2022 – Real Betis 1 – 3 Atletico Madrid
Manchester City – Atletico Madrid Direct Comparison / H2H Record
As alluded to earlier, these two clubs have never dueled at competitive match level. The most recent two direct duels between the coaches date back to the 2015/2016 Champions League season, when Atletico surprisingly prevailed against the Pep-coached and dominant Bayern with only 27% possession after first and second legs and a cumulative goal-shot ratio of 22:53.
It is also interesting to note that City have won three out of four matches against Spanish clubs under Guardiola. Atletico’s overall record against English teams, however, does not read quite as well, with only 15 wins in 40 attempts. On the other hand, the Rojiblancos could win two consecutive away games on the island for the first time in the club’s history
Manchester City – Atletico Madrid Tip
Ranking the four quarter-finals in the Champions League according to their level of interest is incredibly difficult. However, it is undisputed that the clash between Manchester City and Atletico Madrid is probably the most exciting duel on the coaching benches. Pep Guardiola and Diego Simeone have a completely different approach to football and yet are very successful in their own way.
Despite this, Manchester City are considered quite clear favourites against Atletico Madrid according to the betting odds. For the first leg at the Etihad Stadium, only a 1.40 is offered at the top for the home win. This assessment is primarily based on the strong and consistent performances in the Premier League as well as the traditionally extremely dominant approach.
Despite this, of course, we must not make the mistake of underestimating the guests from the Spanish capital. We have already talked in detail about their uncomfortable style of play. In addition, there is the impressive form with six wins in a row in the league as well as the not undeserved progress in the royal class against Manchester United. The defence, in particular, has recently been much more stable than it was for much of the season.
Against this backdrop, we have decided to offer a combined bet on a home win for the Sky Blues between Manchester City and Atletico Madrid, including the Under 3.5
