Can the Citizens get revenge against Villa under pressure?

At one time, Roy Keane was one of the greatest personalities in world soccer. The Irishman made 366 Premier League appearances, played almost 80 games in the UEFA Champions League and shaped a very successful era in central midfield at Manchester United.

The fact that the now 52-year-old still has a strong dislike of city rivals Manchester City after 13 professional years with the Red Devils was made abundantly clear at the weekend. Following the Sky Blues’ top match at home to Arsenal, Roy Keane, who was already a polarizing figure in his playing days, described Citizens star striker Haaland as a fourth division player whose general standard was poor.

Although the vehemence of this criticism is of course completely exaggerated and populist, the long-serving captain of the Irish national team is right in that the Norwegian striker tank remained completely pale against the Gunners and has not scored as regularly in recent weeks as he has in the past.

On Wednesday evening, Haaland and Co. will face the next top match in the Premier League on matchday 31. The Etihad Stadium will host fifth-placed Birmingham. Ahead of the game between Manchester City and Aston Villa, the bet on a home win seems to be a formality. At least if you take a closer look at the odds on the three-way market

The best bookmakers have little doubt that coach Pep Guardiola’s team will get back to winning ways after two draws in a row and also take revenge for the 1-0 defeat in the first leg. If you agree with this assessment, you can also consider combining the expected home win with a goal bet to get higher odds between Manchester City and Aston Villa. You can now find such match combinations with virtually all betting providers, including Oddset, where you can also get 100% up to 100 euros on your first deposit as a welcome bonus.

Manchester City – Statistics & current form

Without a doubt, Manchester City could be described as the biggest losers of the weekend in the race for the English championship. The Citizens were actually determined to win the home game against Arsenal in order to further improve their own starting position. In the end, however, Pep’s team had to settle for a goalless draw after a fast-paced but uneventful game. As Liverpool FC, who are third in the league, had already beaten Brighton 2-1, the Sky Blues’ gap to the leaders widened to three points. City also have the worst goal difference compared to LFC and the Gunners.

Defending the title on their own is therefore no longer possible. Nevertheless, the reigning champions and Champions League winners naturally want to keep up the pressure on their direct rivals. The best way to do that is to win! It is very unlikely that the Citizens will be denied one of these for the third time in a row in the English top flight on Wednesday evening, given the Manchester City v Aston Villa odds. A 1.32 top price on the host’s three-pointer underlines the towering role of the third-placed team, which has not always covered itself in glory recently

Pep has acquired a taste for controlled victories

While Guardiola’s men have not lost in the Premier League for 14 matches and have won ten games in that period, Haaland and Co. have never scored more than three goals themselves. Unsurprisingly, a bet on the over 4.5 would only have gone through in one of the last 15 PL matches involving City. The offense has lost some of its ease and effectiveness, while the defense – despite various absences – has taken a step forward.

Considering that the Sky Blues have kept a clean sheet in four of their last seven PL games, we think it makes more sense to link the prediction of a home win with under goals or even a three-goal favorite including a clean sheet ahead of the Manchester City vs Aston Villa clash. Bwin offers 2.40 for the latter. As a new customer, you are also entitled to a Bwin bonus of up to 100 euros.

Finally, it should be mentioned that the Citizens can confidently be characterized as April experts. They have won 19 of their last 21 Premier League matches this month. The last defeat dates back to April 2021. In terms of personnel, coach Guardiola, whose tenure will end in the summer of 2025 is already the subject of much speculation, will once again have to improvise. Aké, Walker and Stones are unlikely to be available, meaning Rico Lewis will once again take his place in the back four. Kovacic will serve as an additional stabilizer in midfield. Doku would be a potential alternative for the recently weak Foden.

Predicted Manchester City line-up:

Aston Villa – Statistics & current form

No wonder, because the 52-year-old Basque player meets the requirements profile in full – with the exception of the language barrier. Emery has already worked with world stars at big clubs (PSG, Arsenal), won the Europa League four times with two different clubs (Sevilla, Villarreal) and clearly has a feel for what it takes to stabilize teams and put them back on a positive path.

He has done just that in impressive style at Aston Villa. In November 2022, Emery took over as Gerrard’s successor in Birmingham and led the club from 16th place to seventh and into the Europa Conference League. In the current season, the Villans can even dream of competing in the Champions League. Before the start of the 31st matchday in the Premier League, they are in fourth place in the interim rankings. There are many signs of an exciting duel with Tottenham for the coveted Champions League ticket

Can top scorer Watkins play a part?

After a somewhat lengthy negative streak with just two wins from seven games from the end of December to mid-February, the red-and-blue’s form curve has recently pointed in the right direction again. The heavy 4-0 home defeat against Spurs, which is still difficult to explain a good three weeks later, was the only defeat in the last six matches. At the weekend, there was a deserved 2-0 home win against Wolverhampton, and before the international break an equally decent 1-1 draw at Europa League quarter-finalists West Ham United.

Emery’s squad has clearly found its feet, particularly away from home. The seven-time English champions are now unbeaten in five PL games away from home (3-2-0). Fourth place in the separate away table underlines the fact that the prediction of a home win between Manchester City and Aston Villa is not a foregone conclusion. However, there are also few concrete arguments to suggest a surprise coup for the fourth-placed team. What’s more, the Villans have not won any of their last 30 (!) PL away games at the reigning champions. The last time they did so was almost 15 years ago in December 2009.

A further downer is the injury to Ollie Watkins, who had to be substituted against Wolverhampton and is in danger of missing out again. If the 28-year-old is indeed unavailable, it would be almost impossible to compensate for this, as he is the all-conquering attacking player with 16 goals and ten assists. Incidentally, Watkins has scored nine goals away from home.

Predicted Aston Villa line-up:

Manchester City – Aston Villa head-to-head comparison / H2H record

For the 162nd time, Manchester City will face Aston Villa in the English top flight. A prediction on the Sky Blues would have been the right choice in 70 cases. In recent years, too, the pendulum has usually swung in the Citizens’ favor, as they have won 17 of their last 18 Premier League home games against the Villans, 13 of them in a row. The first leg ended with a bang, however, as Emery’s team won 1-0 at home with a goal from former Leverkusen player Leon Bailey. The traditional Birmingham club could now win both legs against the reigning champions for the first time since 1962/63.

Manchester City – Aston Villa betting tip

An English week lies ahead in the Premier League. The fact that Manchester City get to play on a Wednesday of all days could prove to be a major plus point – at least for all statistics freaks. The Sky Blues have won 27 of their last 29 PL matches played on Wednesdays. Better still, the past 19 home games on the mountain festival of the week have also ended in three points for the Citizens, who are still considered the heavy favorites for much more substantial reasons.

The significantly lower Manchester City vs Aston Villa betting odds for a home win are also due to the fact that the current third-placed team have not lost any of their last 14 league games (10-4-0), have already won 17 of their last 18 PL home games against their upcoming opponents and cannot afford another slip-up in the championship race after two draws in a row

We believe that Pep’s team will live up to their role as favorites, but that the expected home win will not be particularly high. City place great emphasis on defense and could benefit from the fact that Ollie Watkins is in danger of being ruled out for the visitors. Our suggestion is therefore to combine the bet on a three-pointer for the hosts with the under 4.5 in the match between Manchester City and Aston Villa