Happy carnival atmosphere in Mainz?
Many non-football fans like to associate the cities of Mainz and Cologne with carnival/carnival. Ten days after the official start of the new campaign, the two Bundesliga clubs now face each other in a direct duel on Sunday evening. The mood in both clubs is currently characterised by euphoria, not even because of the “Fassenacht”, but because of the promising performances in the course of the season so far.
In terms of the table, it is the duel between seventh and eleventh. But that is by no means the only reason why Mainz are favourites against Cologne according to the odds. The fact that the Nullfünfer have won seven of their last ten home games against the cathedral city may also tip the scales more in the direction of the home side before kick-off.
In addition, for a suitable Mainz vs. Cologne forecast, it must also be taken into account that FSV is probably in slightly better shape at the moment. While Baumgart’s side have failed to win any of their last four matches, the Rheinhessen side have picked up an impressive seven points from their last three encounters. Can the team of coach Bo Svensson live up to their role as favourites in the last match of matchday 12 in the Bundesliga?
Mainz – Statistics & current form
FSV Mainz 05 is certainly one of the most positive surprises of the current season so far. Last year, the Rheinhessen side had to tremble for a long time to stay in the relegation zone, but at the moment it looks as if the zero-fives will have a carefree season ahead of them. After eleven matchdays, the team of successful coach Bo Svensson already has 17 points on its account. They are ten points clear of the relegation zone. Seventh place in the intermediate rankings is a source of satisfaction.
After a slight dip in form with only one point from four games, albeit against primarily well-known opponents, the trend has clearly been on the up again in recent weeks. Before the international break, there was a 4:1 home win against Augsburg, a 2:1 away win in Bielefeld and a remarkable draw against Borussia Mönchengladbach. Incidentally, FSV have not started a season as well as they are currently doing since 2016/17.
Mainz with good record in own stadium
Mainz are doing particularly well in front of their home crowd. They have picked up eleven points from six home games. Three victories were offset by two draws and only one defeat. In particular, the outstanding home defence, which conceded only four goals, made this possible. Only Bochum, a team promoted to the Bundesliga, conceded fewer goals at home than the Nullfünfer. This is one of the reasons why a prediction on the hosts is our first choice between Mainz and Cologne.
After the good performances of late, coach Bo Svensson actually has no reason to make any major changes to his team. With the exception of the injured Lucoqui and St. Juste, all players are fit for action. The offensive hopes rest once again on U21 international Jonny Burkart, who was in excellent form before the international break and has been in Hansi Flick’s notebook ever since.
Predicted line-up of Mainz:
Zentner – Bell, Hack, Niakhaté – Widmer, Kohr, Aaron – J.-S. Lee, Boetius – Onisiwo, Burkardt
Last matches played by Mainz:
1st Bundesliga
11/05 2021 – Mainz 05 1 – 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
10/30 2021 – Arminia Bielefeld 1 – 2 Mainz 05
DFB Cup
10/26 2021 – Mainz 05 3 – 2 Arminia Bielefeld
1st Bundesliga
10/22 2021 – Mainz 05 4 – 1 Augsburg
10/16 2021 – Borussia Dortmund 3 – 1 Mainz 05
Cologne – Statistics & current form
A new coach can sometimes bring about real miracles. But what Steffen Baumgart has done in a very short time to the rather bland 1. FC Köln in the pre-season borders on a small miracle. Instead of a pure relegation battle and footballing poverty, the ex-professional has implemented a completely different approach at the cathedral cities. The Geißböcke play courageous offensive football with an enormously high level of intensity and aggression.
This tendency to take risks has, however, resulted in the defence looking overstretched on several occasions in recent matches. In the last five matches, the Rhinelanders were always behind at the break! Nevertheless, they still managed to collect five points after falling behind (one win, two draws, two defeats).
Köln still winless away
Generally, it is doubtful that the “Effzeh” will take anything worthwhile away from Rheinhessen, as things have not necessarily gone well for the last-placed team in terms of results away from home. In five away games this season, they have only scored two points, but have already lost three. Cologne have only won one match away from home in the past twelve Bundesliga games. In 2021/22, only three other teams conceded more goals than Timo Horn in the Baumgart team’s box.
For the hosts, meanwhile, the primary concern will be to take Anthony Modeste out of the game. The French attacker scored the last four goals for the Geißböcke and is currently experiencing his second spring under Baumgart.
Partly because of Modeste, the Rhinelanders have already scored six headed goals this season. More than any other team. In terms of personnel, it is probably too early for Shkiri to start. Otherwise, however, all men are on board, so that the coach even has to decide between a three-man and a four-man defence or one or two top players.
Predicted line-up of Cologne:
T. Horn – Schmitz, Kilian, Czichos, Hector – Ljubicic, Özcan – Thielmann, Uth, Kainz – Modeste
Last matches played by Köln:
Friendly club matches
11/10 2021 – 1. FC Köln 4 – 0 Paderborn
1st Bundesliga
11/07 2021 – 1. FC Köln 2 – 2 Union Berlin
10/30 2021 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 0 1. FC Köln
DFB Cup
10/27 2021 – VfB Stuttgart 0 – 2 1. FC Köln
1st Bundesliga
10/24 2021 – 1. FC Köln 2 – 2 Bayer Leverkusen
Mainz – Cologne Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
20 Matches the two teams have played so far in the Bundesliga. With eight wins compared to six draws and six defeats, FSV leads the direct comparison. Especially in front of a home crowd, there was usually nothing to be gained for the Cologne team. The Rheinhessen side won seven of the ten home games. For the first time since 2010, the “Nullfünfer” can now look forward to two wins in a row against the “Effzeh”. But: In the previous season, there were away victories in both the first and second legs…
Mainz – Cologne tip
At the end of the twelfth matchday in the Bundesliga, it comes to the clash between Mainz and Cologne on Sunday evening. According to the betting odds, the home side have slight advantages and slightly better chances to leave the pitch as winners.
We would make the same assessment in the run-up to this match, after all, the zero-fivers have a strong eleven points from six home games, while the guests from the cathedral city are still waiting for their first three points away from home this season. In addition, FSV have won seven of their ten Bundesliga home games against their upcoming opponents, which in turn can be used as a statistical argument for success for Svensson’s side.
The current state of both teams should also not be underestimated. The Rheinhessen side have seven points from their last three matches. The “Effzeh”, on the other hand, have been winless for four games and were always behind at the break in the past five games.
This is one of the reasons why we are betting on a home win between Mainz and Cologne. At Betway, we get 2.15 at the top, which is worth a confident bet of six units. With a little more courage to take risks, we can even think about a HT1/FT1. At the same time, we do not necessarily believe in a low-scoring match. The over 2.5 can serve as a good multiplier for a combination bet for less risk-averse bettors.
