Does Freiburg show a reaction to their European exit?

An exciting and above all intense game is on the agenda in Mainz. The 05ers are one of the teams of the moment in the Bundesliga, which is also confirmed by the Mainz vs Freiburg forecast of the bookmakers. This shows that the 05ers have an advantage in the direct duel.

However, there should be no talk of a clear favourite role yet. Nevertheless: Mainz play very stable and Freiburg have the European Cup in their bones. That could become a factor.

The question will be how Freiburg will cope with Thursday’s game. Mainz had a whole week to prepare for their opponent. And the Freiburgers left a lot of energy. Therefore, our Mainz vs. Freiburg tip is that at least both teams will score.

Mainz – Statistics & current form

Mainz 05 are playing a very good second half under Bo Svensson again. Only Dortmund have managed to pick up more points from their seven second-round matches than Mainz, who have picked up 16 points in seven games. The 05ers now also want to beat Freiburg in order to make a step forward in the standings. In the meantime, Mainz have moved up to seventh place and are only four points behind Eintracht Frankfurt in sixth place.

The most recent result was a 1-1 draw away to Hertha BSC, where the team also had to put up with some unfortunate referee whistles. Mainz didn’t care, because their own plan was implemented excellently. On top of that, they now have a kind of favourite opponent, because no team in the Bundesliga has won more against Mainz than against Freiburg. The fact that the opponent is now also a little bit battered plays into the Mainzers’ cards even more.

In recent weeks, Mainz’s system with the hybrid of a three-man and five-man backline has worked very well, and it seems to be especially promising against Freiburg. The visitors often play in this formation and should that also be the case this time, there will be many 1-on-1 duels in which Mainz, who are rested, should have an advantage.

Mainz with impressive efficiency

Mainz have picked up a strong 13 points from their last five league games. The team also has efficiency to thank for this, as the 05ers have the best rate of all teams in the Bundesliga after the start of the second half of the season with a major chance conversion rate of more than 20%. On top of that, the team exceeds its own Expected Goals by seven.

In addition, the defence has improved; in the last five games, there was only one game in which more than one goal was conceded, and twice the Svensson eleven even went without conceding a goal. The points of the last few weeks are all the more important when you consider that difficult opponents await Mainz in Freiburg, Leipzig, Bremen and Cologne.

The qualities of Mainz are undisputedly high, but Freiburg is also a top-class opponent. That’s why, before the Mainz vs. Freiburg match, our prediction is that both teams will score.

Last matches of Mainz:

11/03/2023 – Hertha BSC 1 – 1 Mainz 05

04/03/2023 – Mainz 05 1 – 0 Hoffenheim

25/02/2023 – Mainz 05 4 – 0 Gladbach

20/02/2023 – Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 3 Mainz 05

11/02/2023 – Mainz 05 3 – 1 Augsburg

Freiburg – Statistics & current form

C Freiburg were eliminated in the UEFA Europa League against Juventus during the week. Christian Streich grumbled about the referee afterwards, but was above all delighted with his team’s performance: “The way the team performed was great. You always had the feeling that when they score a goal, something very special can happen.”

The Sportclub players also agreed that the team was unlucky in the decisive moments. Freiburg now want to show a reaction in the Bundesliga, but after the intense game against Juventus they must first try to get new momentum back into the team. This can be achieved mainly through fresh players and rotation, which the Freiburg squad is capable of.

Freiburg have not lost five games in a row in the Bundesliga. This record is quite respectable, as it means that the Breisgauers are now on an outstanding course. The SC is playing the second best season in the club’s history according to the current points tally.

Freiburg fighting against the gloom

While Freiburg have rarely lost recently, just one win from five competitive games also puts a different gloss on the statistics. The Breisgauers are now fighting against a certain gloom, also because FC Bayern are waiting twice quite quickly after the international break. The season is undoubtedly a good one, but many things have to be right to make it a very good one.

In addition, there is a discrepancy between home and away games for Freiburg. The team “only” scored 1.5 points on average away from home, compared to 2.25 at home. There were also significantly more goals conceded in the away games (23 compared to ten), but also only four defeats in twelve games.

Freiburg have therefore scored fewer points away from home, their form curve is pointing slightly downwards and, on top of that, the visitors have the stresses and strains of the week behind them. That’s why our value tip before the match between Mainz and Freiburg is that the home side will win.

Last matches of Freiburg:

Europa League Final Stage
17/03/2023 – SC Freiburg 0 – 2 Juventus FC

12/03/2023 – SC Freiburg 2 – 1 Hoffenheim

Europa League Final Stage
10/03/2023 – Juventus FC 1 – 0 SC Freiburg

04/03/2023 – Gladbach 0 – 0 SC Freiburg

26/02/2023 – SC Freiburg 1 – 1 Bayer Leverkusen

Mainz – Freiburg Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

In all competitions, Freiburg and Mainz have faced each other in 47 duels so far. Freiburg have won 15 times, while Mainz have won 17 times. However, the 05ers have very good odds against the Breisgauer in the Bundesliga, winning 14 of 27 games there.

Mainz – Freiburg Tip

Mainz are in very good form at the moment. The 05ers play well, are efficient in front of the opponent’s goal and have a lot of quality in their own ranks. Against Freiburg, one of their favourite opponents in the league, they will now be looking for another win.

Both teams have a lot up their sleeves in terms of attacking play, so our tip ahead of the Mainz vs Freiburg game is that both teams will score goals.

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