Will Rasgrad clearly beat the underdog from Montenegro?
This year’s Champions League is casting its shadow ahead. The Bulgarian champions from Rasgrad and the champions from Montenegro, Sutjeska Niksic, will fight for one of the coveted places in the group stage. As national champions from one of the weaker leagues in Europe, the two clubs will have to survive a total of four qualifying rounds in order to win one of the coveted tickets to the lucrative group phase.
The best bookmakers leave no doubt as to who will be the clear favourites in the first leg. For Ludogorez Rasgrad against Sutjeska Niksic, odds of around 1.20 are offered for a home win for the Bulgarians. And anything other than a home win for the club of the millionaire project of Bulgarian pharmaceutical entrepreneur Domuschev would also be a big surprise.
The Bulgarian champions could qualify for the group stage of the Champions League for the third time in the last ten years, while a club from Montenegro has never even been represented there. Even advancing in the first qualifying round against the favourites from Rasgrad would be a great sporting success for the underdogs. The best analysis, odds and predictions for the upcoming match can be found in the article
Ludogorez Rasgrad – Statistics & current form
After oligarch Domuschev took over the club from northern Bulgaria in the second Bulgarian league in the winter break of the 2010/11 season, they were immediately promoted and then immediately won the championship the following season. With the help of his millions, the club has had a permanent subscription to the Bulgarian championship ever since. In the following nine seasons, they were champions nine times in a row. They are already far ahead of the national competition, but they have not been able to celebrate any major international successes during this period.
First Champions League appearance since 2016?
Despite their great national dominance, they have only cleared the Champions League qualification hurdle twice in the last ten years. Last season, they only narrowly failed to qualify in the final qualifying round against Malmö. As a result, they slipped into the Europa League and were clearly shown the limits by Midtjylland, Red Star Belgrade and Braga in the group stage and were deservedly eliminated. They also failed to qualify for the Champions League group stage for six years. Rasgrad is not yet a real European heavyweight, despite its overwhelming national dominance.
However, the third participation in the Champions League is to follow this year. At least in the first round, the chances are good. As expected, they are high favourites against the champions from Montenegro. But the European home games were rarely really convincing in the last few years, but they hardly had any trouble against opponents from the smaller European leagues. For Ludogorez Rasgrad against Sutjeska Niksic, we are therefore betting on a handicap victory with more than a one-goal lead. This was also the result of the last encounter against a team from Montenegro. In the first qualifying round for the Champions League in the 2020/21 season, Podgorica was defeated 3:1. Coach Simundza has no notable absentees to complain about on Tuesday.
Predicted Ludogorez Rasgrad line-up: Padt, Plastun, Pinas, Nedyalkov, Cicinho, Santana, Goncalves, Yankov, Rick, Sotiriou, Delev
Last matches played by Ludogorez Rasgrad:
First Professional League Championship Playoff
23/05/2022 – PFK Levski Sofia 0 – 1 PFK Ludogorez Rasgrad
14/05/2022 – PFK Ludogorez Razgrad 1 – 0 PFC Cherno More Varna
06/05/2022 – PFK Botev Plovdiv 1 – 2 PFK Ludogorez Razgrad
30/04/2022 – PFK Ludogorez Razgrad 5 – 0 CSKA Sofia
Cup
22/04/2022 – PFK Levski Sofia 1 – 0 PFK Ludogorez Rasgrad
Sutjeska Niksic – Statistics & current form
Next to FK Podgorica, Sutjeska Niksic is the biggest traditional club in the still young independent state of Montenegro. Both clubs regularly compete for the national championship. While in the previous two seasons they had to give way to their big rivals in the battle for the championship, last season they celebrated their first championship title since 2018/19. In the process, they suffered only five defeats in the entire round, although three of them came in the last five games when the championship was already decided.
Competitive in Europe only to a limited extent
In European comparison, however, Niksic has hardly any notable successes to show. They have never made it further than the second qualifying round of a European competition. This year, they are even threatened with elimination in the first round against their superior opponents from Bulgaria. Sutjeska Niksic has a squad worth just four million euros, less than many a German third division club. This compares to a squad value of 30 million euros for the tough away game in Rasgrad next Tuesday.
In last year’s championship season, defence was the trump card. Only 29 goals were conceded in 36 games. In about two-thirds of the away games, they did not concede a goal. Nevertheless, the forecast for Ludogorez Rasgrad against Sutjeska Niksic is for a handicap victory for the Bulgarians.
On the one hand, the Montenegrin league is much weaker than the Bulgarian league, which is only below average in a European comparison, and on the other hand, they lost their qualifying matches in recent years against opponents from stronger European leagues mostly by more than one goal difference. Their last competitive match in Bulgaria also ended with a 1:3 defeat against Levski Sofia. Coach Savovic has no absentees to report for Tuesday.
Predicted line-up of Sutjeska Niksic: Giljen, Stijepovic, Drincic, Babic, Grivic, Erakovic, Knezevic, Matanovic, Zocevic, Conraad, Strikovic
Last matches played by Sutjeska Niksic:
1st League
25/05/2022 – Sutjeska 1 – 3 Mornar
21/05/2022 – Petrovac 1 – 1 Sutjeska
14/05/2022 – Buducnost Podgorica 4 – 2 Sutjeska
08/05/2022 – Sutjeska 1 – 2 Decic Tuzi
30/04/2022 – FK Iskra 0 – 3 Sutjeska
Ludogorez Razgrad – Sutjeska Niksic Direct comparison / H2H record
There has not been a meeting between the two clubs so far. In fact, Rasgrad have only met opponents from Montenegro three times. All three duels were clearly won. It is therefore not surprising that the odds for a home win at Ludogorez Rasgrad against Sutjeska Niksic are not too high at the bookmakers with a German licence. Sutjeska Niksic have only met a Bulgarian team once before in 2017, losing 3-1 at home to Levski Sofia after a 0-0 draw, which saw them eliminated in the first qualifying round of the Europa League.
Ludogorez Razgrad – Sutjeska Niksic Tip
Ludogorez Rasgrad vs Sutjeska Niksic seems to be a very risky prediction for a draw. The bookmakers are already offering average odds of 6.00 on a draw. Anything other than a win for Rasgrad would be a surprise in this match. We not only assume that this victory will be successful, but also that Rasgrad will be able to distance themselves from their opponents by more than one goal.
This would also be important with regard to the second leg, so that we don’t get into trouble here. At least the test matches in June already looked quite decent, most recently a 3-0 win against the German second-division team from Nuremberg.
The performances of the Montenegrin team in preparation were less convincing. Two of the three test matches against opponents from the Serbian league were lost without a goal of their own.
