Will Ludogorez turn the tables in the second leg?

Admittedly, the field of participants in the first qualifying round of the UEFA Champions League is not necessarily filled with renowned clubs. One of the few exceptions, however, is Ludogorez Rasgrad. The Bulgarian serial champions have plenty of experience in international competition and have even been able to draw attention to themselves in recent years.

On Wednesday evening, however, the Green-Whites are threatened with a super-GAU. After the 2-0 defeat in the first leg, coach Ivaylo Petev’s team has its back to the wall and desperately needs a clear victory in the second leg in front of its home crowd to avoid early elimination. Although after the impressions of the previous week between Ludogorez Rasgrad and Ballkani, betting on a success for the home side certainly carries risk, the Bulgarians are rightly favoured.

It is also clear, however, that the visitors from Kosovo have the more comfortable starting position. A draw or a defeat with a maximum difference of one goal would see the underdogs from Suhareka advance to the second qualifying round of the top flight.

In the past, however, it has not been uncommon for a supposedly pleasant constellation to lead to a certain degree of comfort for the advantaged team. We do not rule out such a scenario for Wednesday either and therefore tend to predict on the hosts between Ludogorez Rasgrad and Ballkani.

Ludogorez Rasgrad – Statistics & current form

In the last twelve years, Ludogorez have been the exclusive Bulgarian champions. Accordingly, the Balkan state’s industry leader has always qualified for international competition. In 2014 and 2016, they even made it to the Champions League group stage. Last year, the Green and Whites were relegated to the Conference League in third place in the preliminary round of the Europa League, where they lost out to Anderlecht in the intermediate round.

Nevertheless, this solid record in the European Cup makes it clear why, even before Ludogorez Rasgrad’s first leg, Ballkani was offering lower odds on the club, which was only founded in 2001 and is subsidised by a Bulgarian pharmaceutical entrepreneur. Rasgrad, however, could not live up to their role as favourites in Kosovo the previous week. In the end, they suffered a 2-0 defeat, which will put the better-known club under immense pressure on Wednesday evening.

Rasgrad with experience and quality advantages

But the fact that the Green-Whites are currently still struggling with their early form was also evident at the weekend on the first matchday of the domestic league. Ludogorez surprisingly lost 1:3 away at Krumovgrad and therefore have to fight against the third setback in the third competitive match of the still young season in the Champions League second leg.

In this context, it is certainly helpful that the Petev eleven can play at home. They have won four of their last five home matches at international level. Among others, AS Rome, Helsinki and Anderlecht were defeated in their own stadium in the pre-season.

If we focus exclusively on the qualifying home matches, the serial champions’ impressive record stands at six victories from the last eight encounters. Against this backdrop, even a prediction of the Bulgarians progressing seems absolutely within reach between Ludogorez Rasgrad and Ballkani. Value should definitely be found at top odds of 2.35.

Predicted line-up of Ludogorez Rasgrad:
Padt; Witry, Plastun, Russo, Heister; Show, Goncalves, Nonato; Despodov, Tissera, Vidal

Ballkani – Statistics & Current form

While Ludogorez Rasgrad, as mentioned, have already had the pleasure of competing with some prestigious clubs on the biggest possible football stage in Europe, it was only last season that KF Ballkani were able to celebrate the greatest success in the club’s history at international level to date. The Kosovars unexpectedly qualified for the group stage of the Europa Conference League, but their four points from six games were not enough to advance.

Unlike in the last season 2022/23, in which the Orange-Blacks were only relegated to the Conference League qualifiers due to a defeat against Zalgiris Vilnius in the first CL qualifying round, this time the aim is to make it to the second round. The course for progress has been set, the starting position seems comfortable and yet caution is advised against the outsiders from Suhareka.

Ballkani must remain brave

Not least because the Kosovar champions only start the new season at the end of August and are therefore still pretty much at the beginning of their preparation. In front of their own fans, a distinct disadvantage in terms of quality and/or fitness can perhaps still be eradicated, but coach Ilir Daja’s team can expect an extremely complicated task away from home.

It will be interesting to see how the Albanian head coach adjusts his team. In our eyes, it would be negligent to concentrate solely on working against the ball. At some point, the pressure from the hosts will become too much. Instead, it would make much more sense to create danger in the transition game and possibly bring about a decision.

However, we dare to doubt whether this will succeed. Similar to the best bookmakers, who only offer odds in the range of 1.35 for a home win after 90 minutes between Ludogorez Rasgrad and Ballkani. If, on the other hand, the visitors from Kosovo go home rejoicing with at least a draw, there would already be 3.25 odds at the top.

Predicted line-up of Ballkani:
Kolici; Thaqi, Dellova, Jashanica, Trashi; Emerllahu, Kuc, Zyba; Korenica, Rrahmani, Gripshi

Ludogorez Razgrad – Ballkani Direct comparison / H2H record

The first leg a week ago was the first and so far only meeting between these clubs. The teams met on equal terms at the alternative stadium in Pristina, although Ballkani simply made better use of the opportunities that presented themselves. Korenica made it 1-0 just before the break and Zyba added another in 55 minutes. Nothing more happened after that, so it remained 2-0 for the Kosovars.

Ludogorez Rasgrad – Ballkani Tip

Only in three of the 15 first legs in the UEFA Champions League first qualifying round did a team win by two or more goals difference. One of those three clubs was, surprisingly, KF Ballkani. The Kosovar champions of the last two seasons won 2-0 at home against the Bulgarian season-title holders from Rasgrad to put themselves in a comfortable position for the second leg.

Nevertheless, the bookmakers are literally still far from closing the book. Quite the contrary. Looking at the Ludogorez Rasgrad vs. Ballkani betting odds, it becomes clear that many experts expect a home win on Wednesday night and even see a realistic chance that the Bulgarians will close the two-goal gap.

We agree with this assessment and argue primarily with the quality and experience advantages of the Petev eleven, which has fought some battles in international competition in recent years. We therefore try to bet between Ludogorez Rasgrad and Ballkani that the favourites will already lead at half-time and will also be ahead at the end of the 90 minutes. A respectable 1.95 is offered for this, which is worth six units to us as a stake.