Can the out-of-form Sport-Club survive in the Lens cauldron?

For SC Freiburg, things are going to get tough in the Europa League second round. At least with regard to the first leg on Thursday evening at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis. Racing Club de Lens is undoubtedly one of the best remaining home teams in the competition. Coach Franck Haise’s men have proven that not only in the French Ligue 1, but also in the Champions League group stage. However, the Red & Yellows are definitely a force to be reckoned with away from home

So if the Breisgau side are aiming to reach the round of 16 in Europe’s second most important club competition, the main aim is to get a decent result in the north of France. However, the odds in the run-up to the first leg are clearly in favor of the home side. Betting on a home win between Lens and Freiburg currently brings a maximum of 1.83 at Betano Germany. The Bundesliga team is therefore considered the underdog, which is mainly due to their recent away performances at national level

After last Friday’s emphatic 3-0 defeat in Dortmund, Sport-Club have been waiting more than three months for a full taste of success away from home in all competitions. It seems rather unlikely that this will happen in northern France of all places; after all, internationally renowned top teams such as PSV Eindhoven, Arsenal, Sevilla and Olympique Marseille have already cut their teeth in Racing Club’s cauldron this season. From a German perspective, it would therefore be a great success if a prediction of a double chance X2 in the Lens vs. Freiburg duel comes true

Lens – Statistics & current form

After an outstanding last season, in which RC Lens surprisingly finished as runners-up in Ligue 1 behind top-of-the-table Paris St. Germain, the start to the new season has not gone according to plan. With just one meagre point from their first five league games, “Sang et Or” found themselves in an awkward position in the bottom of the table early on

However, thanks to just two defeats in the last 16 matches at league level, coach Franck Haise’s team has long since returned to the upper spheres. Thanks to three wins in a row recently, Champions League qualification is even within reach again. They are three points off the top three. The dress rehearsal last Saturday also went according to plan. Strasbourg were put in their place with a 3:1 win in front of their home crowd. Led by an outstanding David Costa, who was involved in all three goals, the Northern French side celebrated their sixth three-pointer in their tenth Ligue 1 home game of the season

Lens’ home strength reads very impressively

In general, home strength is probably the most powerful argument that tips the scales in favor of the Haise eleven in view of Thursday and the Lens vs. In 2022/23, Racing Club remained completely unbeaten in 19 Ligue 1 home games. This season, they have also only suffered two defeats in front of their own fans.

They also have impressive home statistics at international level. The Red & Blues have lost just one of their last 13 European Cup home games (9-3-1). In 28 consecutive home matches at UEFA level, the Northern French side have always scored at least one goal of their own. In total, they even scored 57, i.e. more than two on average per game. The extremely positive impressions from the CL group stage, when three home games against Arsenal (2:1), Sevilla (2:1) and PSV Eindhoven (1:1) yielded seven out of a possible nine points, underpin the aforementioned home aura and prompt us to check the odds on a home win between Lens and Freiburg.

A potential win on Thursday evening at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis could even be without conceding a goal, especially as keeper Brice Samba has kept a clean sheet in ten of the last 16 league games. Throughout the entire season, only four teams – Lyon, Monaco, Paris St. Germain and Nice – have managed to score twice in the red and yellow cauldron. Only in four of the 15 home games played across all competitions has the mark of over 3.5 goals been broken. There are therefore many indications that the first leg of the second leg against the Bundesliga side will be a low-scoring affair.

Predicted line-up from Lens:

Freiburg – Statistics & current form

SC Freiburg are currently going through a difficult phase of the season. The Breisgau club would definitely have imagined a different start to the 2024 soccer year. While things got off to a decent start with four points from the first two games at home against Union Berlin and Hoffenheim, they then suffered three defeats in a row, which increased the gap to the top six to four points. Coach Christian Streich’s defense in particular is currently causing headaches.

Three goals were conceded in each of the three Bundesliga defeats mentioned above. This figure is of course far too high for the Black Forest side, who are usually keen to maintain a solid defense and already have ten clean sheets in all competitions. In view of the complicated EL match on Thursday and the important league match at the weekend against their direct league neighbors from Frankfurt, the focus in training week will primarily be on working against the ball. By the way, this assumption supports our tendency that the Lens vs Freiburg odds on under-goals make more sense

Defensive stability meets offensive standards

The fact that the Breisgauers scored at least three goals of their own in four out of six matches in the group stage does not change this. No fewer than 17 goals were scored in six matches, although this yield must be seen in relation to the lower-quality competition. In the two toughest matches against West Ham United, Vincenzo Grifo and Co. only managed a meagre one goal in 180 minutes. In the first and second legs (1:2, 0:2), the bet on the under 3.5 would have gone through.

The first leg of a knockout round also brings with it the characteristic of taking a wait-and-see approach and going as long as possible without conceding a goal. As a result, we expect a controlled performance from the Bundesliga side, who will be looking to make pinpricks in attack from a compact defensive base. In addition, the highly dangerous set-pieces should once again become a weapon. Of course, the aforementioned Vincenzo Grifo deserves special mention here. With four goals and two assists, the Italian is currently leading the scoring charts in the Europa League. High odds can be dusted off between Lens and Freiburg if the SCF creative player scores again

Predicted Freiburg line-up:

Lens – Freiburg Direct comparison / H2H balance

This is the first time the two clubs have faced each other on the international stage. However, RC Lens have only lost one of their last six European Cup matches against German representatives (2-3-1). However, the last encounter dates back to 2007 and therefore has no relevance to the upcoming clash. Breisgau, who defeated Ligue 1 club Nantes 4-0 and 2-0 in the group stage last season, may even have the slightly better feeling about the game

Lens – Freiburg betting tip

Two German teams have made it through to the knockout phase of the UEFA Europa League. While the current Bundesliga leaders from Leverkusen are already in the round of 16 and are even considered hot favourites to win the EL 23/24, Freiburg must first survive the intermediate round on the next two Thursdays in order to reach the last 16.

However, the betting odds on the “to-qualify” market between Lens and Freiburg show that this will be a very difficult task. The northern French side are given the better odds by a wafer-thin margin, which is primarily due to their home and form strength. The Red & Yellows have only lost one of their last 13 European home games (9-3-1) and have only lost two of their last 30 (!) Ligue 1 home games. In the Champions League, “Les Sang et or” have also gone three games without defeat in front of their own fans against big-name opponents

Because it should not be forgotten that Sport-Club have not managed to get much going in the Bundesliga recently and have even regularly conceded a lot of goals, we are leaning towards a bet in favor of the French runners-up. However, we are taking a relatively defensive stance and are betting on the 1X & Under 3.5 in the first leg between Lens and Freiburg