Japan eager for revenge

Three matchdays before the end of the 2022 World Cup qualifiers in the AFC Zone, the battle for the coveted starting places for the World Cup in Qatar is coming to a head. Surprisingly, neither the Australian nor the Japanese national team is at the top of the table after seven match days. So far, it is the Saudis who have caused a sensation in the World Cup qualifiers.

In mathematical terms, Saudi Arabia are only one point away from a place in the 2022 World Cup: Japan and Australia, who are third in the standings, will meet in the final phase of the qualifying campaign. In a worst-case scenario, the Saudis could therefore finish Group B in second place with 20 points.

In the first round, the Saudi Arabian national team already beat the Japanese 1-0. For Saudi Arabia, it was already the third win in the last six international matches with the blue Samurai – a good omen?

Because Japan have won four qualifiers in a row since their first-round loss to Saudi Arabia, it’s no surprise at all that the Blue Samurai are rated as favourites in their upcoming international clash with the Saudis.

Japan – Statistics & current form

Japan still have to fear for their direct entry into the 2022 World Cup. A few matchdays before the end of the Asian World Cup qualifiers, the Japanese national team is in second place, but Australia is close behind them. Any loss of points would therefore be fatal in the tight Group B standings.

The match against the Saudis is of great importance. Especially as Japan’s next international break starts with a six-point match against the Australian national team. If the blue Samurai can win both group matches, their direct World Cup starting place will be fixed one matchday before the end of the group phase, even without any support.

So far, Japan have a record of 5-0-2 after seven matches. In the current qualifying phase, the Japanese national team has only lost the group matches against Saudi Arabia (0:1) and Oman (0:1). Most recently, the 26th-ranked team in the world has won four matches in a row – including four international matches in which Japan did not concede a goal.

Is Japan keeping the Saudi attack at bay?

It is quite possible that the defensive bulwark will also be a success factor in the home match against the Saudi Arabian national team. After all, an offensive spectacle tends to be ruled out. Japan have scored only seven goals in their seven qualifying matches so far, making them the third-worst goal scorers in Group B.

One of the few bright spots in the attacking department has been Junya Ito of KRC Genk. The 28-year-old leads the internal list of goal scorers in the 2022 World Cup qualifiers with three goals to his name. However, the most valuable player in the Japanese ranks is Takumi Minamino, who is under contract with Liverpool FC at club level.

In the current World Cup qualifiers, Minamino only missed the first three group matches. Since then, however, the LFC winger has been a fixture and is expected to be in the starting eleven against Saudi Arabia. Compared to the starting line-up that was last used against China, no major changes are expected for the Blue Samurai anyway.

Predicted line-up of Japan:
Gonda – Sakai, Itakura, Ueda, Nagatomo – Endo, Tanaka, Morita – Ito, Osako, Minamino

Last matches played by Japan:

World Cup – AFC Qualifiers – 3rd Round – Group B

01/27 2022 – Japan 2 – 0 China

11/16 2021 – Oman 0 – 1 Japan

11/11 2021 – Vietnam 0 – 1 Japan

10/12 2021 – Japan 2 – 1 Australia

10/07 2021 – Saudi Arabia 1 – 0 Japan

Saudi Arabia – Statistics & Current Form

At the last World Cup in Russia in 2018, Saudi Arabia participated in a World Cup for the first time since 2006. Now, the Saudis are aiming for a second successive World Cup appearance and already have their ticket to the World Cup in Qatar within reach three matchdays before the end of the qualifying phase.

A draw against Japan in the upcoming group match will be enough to secure one of the two direct starting places for the 2022 World Cup without any support. Since the Saudis have won two of their last three international matches against Japan, this scenario cannot be ruled out at the end of the current international break.

If the Saudis even manage to pull off another surprise against the blue Samurai, odds of up to 7.25 are paid out for a bet on the visitors in Japan vs. Saudi Arabia. There is enough potential for this. After all, there has not been a single defeat for the Saudi Arabian national team in the current qualifying phase.

Group lead just a snapshot?

The international break started for the Saudis with a narrow home win over Oman. For long stretches, Saudi Arabia struggled with a lack of goals on the offensive, and it was only after the change of ends that the green hawks managed to break free. At least in defence, however, the Group B leaders made a good impression.

This was the third time in a row that the Saudis did not concede a goal in World Cup qualifying. The performance against Australia, who have the third strongest attack in the group, was particularly praiseworthy in this period. That form must now be underpinned in the match against Japan.

National coach Hervé Renard will start the group match with Japan with his best possible line-up. Compared to the squad that was deployed during the last international break, only four players – Al-Shehri, Ghareeb, Al-Faraj and Madu – will be missing from the squad due to injury.

Saudi Arabia’s likely line-up:
Al-Owais – Al-Ghanam, Al-Amri, Al-Bulaihi, Al-Shahrani – Kanno, Al-Khaibari – Al-Hassan, Al-Najei, Al-Dawsari – al-Buraikan

Last matches played by Saudi Arabia:

World Cup – AFC Qualifiers – 3rd Round – Group B
01/27 2022 – Saudi Arabia 1 – 0 Oman

FIFA Arab Cup Grp. C
12/07 2021 – Morocco 1 – 0 Saudi Arabia

12/04 2021 – Palestine 1 – 1 Saudi Arabia

12/01 2021 – Saudi Arabia 0 – 1 Jordan

WM – Qualification AFC – 3rd Round – Group B
11/16 2021 – Vietnam 0 – 1 Saudi Arabia

Japan – Saudi Arabia Direct Comparison / H2H Record

This is the 16th time the two nations have met in an international match. Ten times the Japanese national team won during this period, while Saudi Arabia prevailed four times. Only one of the 15 international matches between Japan and Saudi Arabia ended in a draw.

In the last four international matches, the team with home advantage has always prevailed. This was also the case in the first leg of the current World Cup qualifiers, where the Saudis bagged a narrow home win (1-0). For the third time in a row, a prediction of under 2.5 goals in the match paid off for Japan vs. Saudi Arabia.

Japan – Saudi Arabia bet

Japan are still looking to make amends after a poor start to their 2022 World Cup qualifying campaign and are targeting a fifth straight win this week. Last week with a comfortable home win over China, the blue Samurai will also benefit from home advantage against the Saudi leaders.

If they win, Japan can not only close the gap on the Saudis, but also defend second place on their own merits. Australia is breathing down Japan’s neck and waiting for their rivals to drop points. Because Japan already lost to the Saudis in the first round, a loss of points this time is by no means out of the question.

Tentatively, we expect the six-point match between Japan and Saudi Arabia to be a match of equals, with few goals expected. Bets on under 2.5 goals have paid off in the last three international matches between the two nations.

This time we also expect a low-scoring encounter, especially as the upcoming group match is of immense importance for both teams. For Japan vs. Saudi Arabia, our betting odds of 1.60 are on under 2.5 goals in the match. We are betting six out of ten possible units for this.