Four wins out of four may not be enough for the Azzurri; only an Israeli victory over Norway would change the scenario
We have Kean and Retegui, they have Haaland. We have ten goals in two games, they have eleven in just one (and they are making a crazy “noise”). We couldn’t have any illusions about Norway-Moldova, the group leaders against the minnows who only bothered Italy at the twilight of Spalletti’s cycle. But no one imagined such a massacre: 11-1. The goal difference is not complicated, it becomes abysmal: impossible to recover the gap accumulated last night (+21 against +5). But the truth is that even a 5-0 Scandinavian victory would have changed little.
After Oslo, it was clear that our future did not depend on us, but on Norway. Now it’s even worse: even if we win the remaining four games, including the head-to-head in Milan on November 16, we would still be doomed by the goal difference. There are two paths left to the North American World Cup. The first, now the most unlikely, is that Norway loses ground in its next game on October 11 against Israel, which is not Moldova: however, the game is in Oslo, and the limitations of Shimon’s defense could be punished by a ruthless Haaland. The second: the playoffs.
Nightmares from the past— Playoffs is a word that makes the Azzurri tremble. The last World Cup was in 2014 in Brazil, where they were knocked out in the first round, just like four years earlier in South Africa. Since that night in Berlin, the World Cup has become a nightmare for those who have won four: two tournaments ended immediately and the other two didn’t even begin. Russia 2018 was lost in the play-off against Sweden, 0-1 in Solna and 0-0 in Milan. Qatar 2022, even more sadly, slipped away in the playoff with North Macedonia in Palermo, 0-1: an even more ferocious humiliation, not to mention that, had we won, we would have faced CR7’s Portugal in the final away from home. Here’s the problem: the playoffs are likely to be populated by teams that are not at all willing to give up.
Slovakia risk— It seems like science fiction, with four games to go, but Germany has complicated its life by losing at home to Slovakia. Lobotka and his teammates are not as dominant as Norway, but Nagelsmann risks having to resort to the playoffs involving the 12 second-placed teams in the groups and the four Nations winners not yet qualified. Among the likely runners-up, if the Germans escape, will be Slovakia: not good either.
Four mini-tournaments— The road to the World Cup for the “deferred” teams includes a semifinal and a final. Before a big team, there will be a supposedly “small” one (as Macedonia was small three years ago…). Two 90-minute (or 120-minute) matches plus penalties, one leg, win or lose: the first at the home of the team with the best FIFA ranking, the second at a venue decided by draw. The 16 teams in the playoffs will be divided into four groups and four mini-tennis brackets. The first group includes the four with the best FIFA ranking in November; the second those from fifth to eighth place; the third those from ninth to twelfth. The fourth includes the four best from the Nations still excluded. First against fourth group, second against third, the two winners in the final playoff.
Seeds— Italy is almost certain to be seeded in the draw: today, thanks to Germany’s struggles, it should be back in the Top Ten, preceded by two South American teams (Brazil and Argentina), which are irrelevant, and seven European teams headed for direct qualification (Spain, France, England, Portugal, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Croatia).
Rivals in the semifinals— In the last bracket, as things stand in the groups, there could be Sweden, Northern Ireland, Moldova, and San Marino, all winners of their Nations League groups. We really don’t have to fear the last two. The problem would be in the final: it’s impossible to predict the eventual rival today, but it won’t be a walk in the park. France and Portugal also struggled yesterday: the middle class is growing.
rivals in the final— We cannot meet Germany, which would be in the first pot like us (but in the highly unlikely event that it finished third in the group, it would be in the second pot thanks to the Nations League…). The contenders for second place are therefore: Slovakia; Scotland or Greece; Iceland; Georgia or Turkey; Hungary or Armenia; Poland; Bosnia or Austria; North Macedonia or Wales; Serbia; Czech Republic. All likely indications, not far from the scenario in mid-November. And if we had to choose one today? Perhaps Armenia, Wales, North Macedonia, oops, better not… There is one thing we still cannot escape: the lingering thought of yet another sporting apocalypse.
