When will the Sinsheim team get their act together again?
It took a late goal in stoppage time against Cologne for TSG Hoffenheim to just avoid another defeat last weekend (final score: 1:1). Nevertheless, the Sinsheim side have now gone seven league games in a row without a win (four draws, three defeats). It is therefore all the more remarkable that the betting odds for a home win for the blue and whites are so high for Hoffenheim against Union Berlin.
The Kraichgau side’s role as favorites can certainly be attributed to the fact that the Ironmen have now gone ten Bundesliga away games without another win (two draws, eight defeats). Under Nenad Bjelica, the Köpenickers have nevertheless shown a clear upward trend, which is why we would advise against following the prediction of a home win for Sinsheim against Union Berlin
In any case, the three-way system seems to be rather unsuitable for this clash, which has recently gone to TSG Hoffenheim twice in a row. Since the tenth matchday, only Darmstadt 98 have taken fewer points (five) than Sinsheim (nine), who now face an opponent that has been really stable defensively since the change of coach. Only Leverkusen have kept more clean sheets (six) than Union Berlin (four) in the last nine matchdays.
In Kraichgau, too, the Irons are likely to be primarily concerned with operating from a defensive base. That’s why we’re betting on a maximum of two goals being scored in this match.
Hoffenheim – Statistics & current form
TSG Hoffenheim finished a poor twelfth in the final Bundesliga table at the end of the 2022/23 season. Accordingly, the club from the Kraichgau region had ambitious plans for the new season, in which it looked as though they would attack Europe for nine match days.
However, the Sinsheim side then went off the rails. Partly because the team from Baden-Württemberg have only won one of their twelve league games since the tenth matchday (six draws, five defeats), they are now only eighth in the table. They are already five points off sixth place
Hoffenheim’s recent unprecedented slump
Nevertheless, TSG could quickly return to the top third in the course of a strong series thanks to the credit of their strong start to the season. However, if Hoffenheim fail to win at home against Union Berlin, it would be the eighth Bundesliga game in a row without a win (four draws, three defeats).
The Kraichgauers’ home record in particular is not encouraging. Pellegrino Matarazzo’s side have recorded just two wins from ten Bundesliga home games in the 2023-24 season at the PreZero Arena (four draws, four defeats). Only Mainz and Darmstadt have fewer home wins (just one)
Hoffenheim know where the goal is, but are too vulnerable defensively
The main shortcoming is the defensive vulnerability. TSG only kept a clean sheet once in the 2023/24 season – curiously, in the first leg against Union Berlin, which they won 2-0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
In the last twelve games, however, they have conceded a whopping 24 goals – an average of two goals per league game. No other Bundesliga team has conceded fewer goals than Hoffenheim in the same period, although they have only failed to score in one of their 21 league games this season.
Predicted Hoffenheim line-up:
Union Berlin – Statistics & current form
1. FC Union Berlin has already been through very deep valleys in the 2023/24 season and even held the red lantern of the Bundesliga at times. However, the Köpenickers are now back on the right track. The capital club have collected 14 points from their nine league games under Fischer’s successor Nenad Bjelica.
FCU are now back in 15th place and are already five points clear of the relegation places. The recent 1:0 home win over VfL Wolfsburg was therefore worth its weight in gold, allowing everyone involved to breathe a little easier again
Bjelica has sustainably strengthened Union Berlin’s defense
A particularly positive aspect: the defensive performance of the Eisern is finally right again. Since Nenad Bjelica took over as coach, only Bayer Leverkusen have conceded more times in the Bundesliga (six) than 1. FC Union Berlin (four).
However, this very defensive style of play also came at a price. In no less than eleven of the 21 league games – and thus in more than 50 percent of all games – the Köpenickers were unable to score a goal of their own. All the more surprising are the odds for the over bet for Hoffenheim against Union Berlin, which are remarkably low and, in our opinion, drive up the value for the more likely under bet
Union Berlin have only picked up five points away from home
In principle, the capital team have the necessary momentum to play for a 0-0 draw in Sinsheim and perhaps even go for the full three points thanks to a set-piece situation or a switching moment. However, the Köpenickers’ away record should not be ignored.
1. FC Union Berlin have not won any of their last ten Bundesliga games away from home (two draws, eight defeats) and are bottom of the Bundesliga away table with just eight goals from eleven away games.
Predicted line-up of Union Berlin:
Hoffenheim – Union Berlin head-to-head comparison / H2H result
Head to head: 4 – 2 – 3
A total of nine competitive matches have been played between the two clubs and TSG Hoffenheim, who have won the last two Bundesliga duels against 1. FC Union Berlin by a two-goal difference, are now narrowly ahead in the head-to-head comparison with a total of four wins. In the first leg, the Sinsheim side prevailed 2:0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei on September 23, 2023
Hoffenheim – Union Berlin betting tip
Our prediction for the second leg between Hoffenheim and Union Berlin is also for a rather low-scoring game in which we expect a maximum of two goals. On the one hand, the Köpenickers have regained their defensive compactness under Nenad Bjelica and have kept a clean sheet in four of their nine league games under the Croatian. On the other hand, TSG have rarely scored goals recently and only managed to equalize 1-1 against Cologne late on last Sunday
If Cologne fail to beat Werder Bremen at home on Friday evening, a point at the PreZero Arena would also improve the Iron’s starting position a little. Accordingly, the Köpenickers should have little reason to go into Baden-Württemberg with their heads through the wall. A destructive and defensive style of play is therefore to be expected.
Betting odds of 2.11 are available for under 2.5 goals for Hoffenheim v Union Berlin, which we’re backing at Bet at Home with three out of ten units
