Will the Old Lady keep TSG at bay?
The situation at TSG Hoffenheim could hardly be more tense these days. The Sinsheim side has now gone 14 league games without a win (two draws, twelve defeats). For the first time in seven years, the club from the Kraichgau region is once again holding the red lantern in the Bundesliga. However, should Hoffenheim’s bets on a home win for the Baden-Württemberger come true, TSG would at least move past the Old Lady again.
While the Sinsheimers’ recent coaching change has not borne any fruit and all five league games under Pellegrino Matarazzo have also been lost, there has at least been a small upward trend in the capital’s fortunes of late.
Berlin have taken seven points from their last five league games – as many points as in the eleven league games before. Consequently, our prediction for Hoffenheim against Hertha leans towards the visitors.
However, the fact that Hertha BSC have lost their last seven Bundesliga away games in a row and are the worst away team in the entire league with a meagre haul of just four points out of a possible 33 away from home speaks against the Old Lady. In addition, the capital club has only won one of its last eight matches in Kraichgau (one draw, six defeats).
At the end of the day, however, Sinsheim’s current form is completely in the cellar, which is why we see the greatest value in betting on the Berliners taking something countable home from Baden-Württemberg and recommend Double Chance X2.
Hoffenheim – Statistics & current form
Last summer, TSG Hoffenheim finished ninth in the final table at the end of a complicated season, which prompted those in charge to push ahead with a summer shake-up. With André Breitenreiter, a promising coach took over, under whom things looked very good for ten match days.
Then, however, an unprecedented downward slide began, which left the club from Kraichgau at the bottom of the table last weekend. The Sinsheim side have now not won in 14 league games in a row (two draws, twelve defeats).
Seven league games lost in a row
Even Breitenreiter’s successor Pellegrino Matarazzo has not been able to reverse the trend. There have been five defeats in a row under the American. The 45-year-old is thus the first Bundesliga coach since Markus Weinzierl (2016 at Schalke) to start with five defeats at a new club.
Only because of the strong start to the season is the situation in Kraichgau not yet hopeless. With a home win against Hertha, Hoffenheim would immediately relinquish the red lantern. However, despite the fact that Ozan Kabak is now serving a yellow suspension in addition to the list of absences, the betting odds on Hoffenheim against Hertha are actually swinging in the direction of the Sinsheim side.
The worst home team in the Bundesliga
In addition to the aforementioned problems, there is a recent home weakness. No team has won fewer home games (only two), lost more often in front of their own fans (seven times) and scored so badly in their own stadium as TSG (only eleven points).
This task will be correspondingly complicated for the Sinsheimers, who have produced little from the game recently. In the five games under the management of Pellegrino Matarazzo, Hoffenheim scored just two goals – the same number as in the last game under André Breitenreiter, which was lost 5-2 in Bochum.
Last games of Hoffenheim:
12/03/2023 – SC Freiburg 2 – 1 Hoffenheim
04/03/2023 – Mainz 05 1 – 0 Hoffenheim
25/02/2023 – Hoffenheim 0 – 1 Borussia Dortmund
18/02/2023 – Augsburg 1 – 0 Hoffenheim
11/02/2023 – Hoffenheim 1 – 3 Bayer Leverkusen
Hertha – Statistics & current form
There has been a bit of a shake-up at Hertha BSC, especially in recent weeks. Not only was a new investor introduced with 777 Partners, but the era of Lars Windhorst is now officially over. The label “Big City Club” has also been buried, and the capital city club wants to move away from it in the future.
How the Old Lady will position itself in the coming season will largely depend on the division in which the Berliners compete. Sandro Schwarz’s team is currently above the line in 15th place, at least because they have managed to pick up seven points out of a possible 15 – the same number as in the previous eleven league games.
The worst away team in the Bundesliga
This away game in Kraichgau is therefore very important for the Berliners.
And the absence of coach Sandro Schwarz, who had to be replaced by co-trainer Volkan Bulut in preparation for this basement duel, was correspondingly inconvenient as he suffered from a stomach bug.
The Hertha coach is expected to be back on the sidelines on Saturday. Away from home, however, things have been anything but good for the capital city team. No other Bundesliga team has scored worse away from home than the Berliners, who have taken just four points from a possible 33 away from home and have lost their last seven away games in a row.
Having conceded 15 goals in the second leg
However, in order for Hoffenheim to win a point against Hertha, the Berliners will need much more defensive stability. The Old Lady has already conceded a staggering 15 goals in the seven league games played in the second half of the season.
Only Bochum and Hoffenheim (both 17) conceded more goals in the last seven games. The fact that the Herthaners have already managed seven points despite conceding the third most goals in the second half of the season is encouraging, however, that they can now turn the tide on the road as well.
Last matches played by Hertha:
11/03/2023 – Hertha BSC 1 – 1 Mainz 05
05/03/2023 – Bayer Leverkusen 4 – 1 Hertha BSC
25/02/2023 – Hertha BSC 2 – 0 Augsburg
19/02/2023 – Borussia Dortmund 4 – 1 Hertha BSC
12/02/2023 – Hertha BSC 4 – 1 Gladbach
Hoffenheim – Hertha Direct comparison / H2H-balance
Head to head: 12 – 6 – 7
There have been a total of 25 meetings between the two teams so far and TSG leads the direct comparison with twelve victories. Most recently, however, the Herthaner remained unbeaten in two consecutive duels with the Sinsheimers (one win, one draw). Away in Kraichgau, however, the Alte Dame have won only one of their last eight guest games (one draw, six defeats).
Hoffenheim – Hertha Tip
Although this basement duel pits the weakest home team against the worst away team, our prediction leans towards the visitors in Hoffenheim vs Hertha. The capital city side have been in much better form recently and have secured seven out of a possible 15 points from the last five games. This contrasts with TSG, who have been winless for 14 games and whose first eleven practically sets itself up due to the many absences in the defence. In this crucial game, Kabak is now also out due to a yellow suspension.
Following this, we recommend betting on the double chance X2. In case of doubt, Berlin, who are weak away from home, would keep TSG at bay with a draw in Kraichgau.