The self-fulfilling prophecy
Who will be the 18th team to compete in the Bundesliga in the 2022/23 season? This question will be finally answered on Monday when Hertha BSC and Hamburger SV meet in the second leg of the relegation play-off at the Volksparkstadion. On Thursday, however, the first leg will take place in the capital. This pairing between two clubs from Germany’s two biggest cities has it all.
Hertha have finished 16th in the Bundesliga. Felix Magath, despite three match points, has not managed to give the Berliners direct class preservation. Now the self-proclaimed Big City Club has to sit out two relegations in order to achieve the smallest of the season’s goals after all. The relegation statistics should at least give the old lady some encouragement.
In the 23 relegation duels between the 1st and 2nd Bundesliga so far, the clubs from the upper house have prevailed 17 times. In the last nine years, the first division club has managed to stay in the league eight times. In addition, the team from the second division has only won one of the last 19 relegation matches. It sounds as if a prediction on the Berlin team is almost inevitable before the first leg between Hertha and HSV.
However, the second-division team usually has the momentum of a good season on its side, and there is also the advantage that the second leg will be played in Hamburg. The Red Shirts are brimming with self-confidence and now want to take the final step. Around 25,000 Hamburg fans are expected at the Olympiastadion on Thursday.
Hertha – statistics & current form
It can’t get any more special than this for Felix Magath. The Berlin coach has almost predicted the relegation against his old love from the Elbe. Of course, the former European Cup hero of HSV will do everything for the old lady’s success, but there are still two hearts beating in his chest. For the Hertha coach, this relegation should definitely end with one laughing eye and one crying eye.
Bad memories
The Berliners do not have good experiences with relegation. In 2012, they were relegated from the top flight as a first division team in the duels against Fortuna Düsseldorf. That should not happen again now, but the omens are not good. The Berliners have only picked up one point from their last three Bundesliga games and had several chances to secure their place in the Bundesliga.
The fact that they haven’t made it over the finish line yet is gnawing at their self-confidence, and that was also evident last weekend when they visited Dortmund. A point would have been enough for the Berliners, and after Ishak Belfodil took the lead, there was a lot to be said for it. But while Hertha lost 2-1, their opponents from Stuttgart scored the winning goal against Cologne in literally the last second. Now the season goes into injury time for the Berliners.
Before the first leg, Felix Magath asked his players to come back to the training camp to concentrate fully on the match at the Olympiastadion. Whether keeper Marcel Lotka will be there after a broken nose and concussion is more than questionable. Oliver Christensen could possibly be in goal instead. The injured Alexander Schwolow, Kelian Nsona and Dong-Jun Lee are certain to miss out. Davie Selke and Stevan Jovetic, on the other hand, could be options. Santiago Ascacibar is missing due to a yellow suspension.
Predicted line-up of Hertha:
Christensen – Plattenhardt, Kempf, Boyata, Pekarik – Tousart, Darida – Mittelstädt, Serdar, Boateng – Belfodil – Coach: Magath
Last matches played by Hertha:
Bundesliga
14/05/2022 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 1 Hertha BSC
07/05/2022 – Hertha BSC 1 – 2 Mainz 05
30/04/2022 – Arminia Bielefeld 1 – 1 Hertha BSC
24/04/2022 – Hertha BSC 2 – 0 VfB Stuttgart
16/04/2022 – Augsburg 0 – 1 Hertha BSC
HSV – Statistics & current form
For the third time, Hamburger SV must, or may, compete in the relegation. No club has played more games in this mode. And these knockout games seem to suit the Hanseatic League, as there has been no defeat in the previous four encounters. Now, however, Hamburg will be playing in a relegation for the first time as a second-division club and it will be interesting to see whether this series will last against Hertha.
Winning streak of the Rothosen
In any case, Tim Walter’s team will go into this first leg on Thursday with a broad chest. On the 29th matchday of the 2nd Bundesliga, HSV were still seven points behind third place. After that, there were five wins in a row. At that point, the probability of promotion was puny. Now it should have risen to 50 per cent before the duels against the Berliners.
In this condition, one can certainly also think about making a prediction on an away win between Hertha and HSV, especially since the Hamburgers have taker qualities. At the weekend, the Hanseatic League was trailing 0:1 in Rostock, but turned the game around in the second period with goals from Robert Glatzel, Sebastian Schonlau and Mikkel Kaufmann, before Hansa caused a brief period of trepidation for the Rothosen with a late goal. In the end, however, the 3:2 away win was enough to qualify for the relegation.
On Thursday, the injured Anssi Suhonen and Tim Leibold will be the only two players Tim Walter will have to do without. It can be assumed that the Hamburg team will play with the same formation as in Rostock. However, it is conceivable that Mikkel Kaufmann will play from the start after his goal. A variant with David Kinsombi as another hoover is also not out of the question.
Predicted line-up of HSV:
Heuer Fernandes – Heyer, Schonlau, Vuskovic, Muheim – Meffert, Reis, Vagnoman – Kittel, Glatzel, Jatta – Coach: Walter
Last matches played by HSV:
2nd Bundesliga
15/05/2022 – Hansa Rostock 2 – 3 Hamburger SV
07/05/2022 – Hamburger SV 2 – 1 Hannover 96
30/04/2022 – Ingolstadt 0 – 4 Hamburger SV
23/04/2022 – Jahn Regensburg 2 – 4 Hamburger SV
DFB Cup
20/04/2022 – Hamburger SV 1 – 3 SC Freiburg
Hertha – HSV Direct comparison / H2H-balance
Hertha against HSV, this is a classic between the two biggest German cities. The two rivals have faced each other a total of 82 times to date. The direct comparison speaks razor-thinly in favour of the capitals, who have the edge after victories with 35:34. 13 other encounters between the relegation opponents ended in a draw.
Back in 1928, HSV won the German championship against the old lady in the final. This shows the tradition that unites these two clubs. However, the last time points were at stake was more than four years ago. Two seasons ago, the teams faced each other in a test match. At the time, Hamburger SV came out on top with a 2:0 win.
Hertha – HSV Tip
We can’t imagine that there will already be a preliminary decision in the first leg on Thursday at the Spree – both teams operate at roughly the same level. The Berliners certainly have the greater individual class, but HSV has rushed from success to success in recent weeks with a team unity.
The question now is which is to be rated higher. In the home match, the Berliners are certainly favoured, even though many of Hamburg’s supporters will be at the Olympiastadion. The momentum is on the side of the visitors after five wins in a row and we expect the Reds to score at least one goal.
However, we also think that the Berliners have the slightly better cards in terms of the match outcome due to their individual class. If the leading players around Dedrick Boyata and Kevin-Prince Boateng manage to carry the team along, then it could make sense to play the betting odds on a home win between Hertha and HSV.
