Will BVB’s record remain unblemished in the new year?

Borussia Dortmund are currently the best Bundesliga team in 2024 in terms of points. The Black & Yellows are the only team to have celebrated three wins in three matchdays after the winter break and have already moved into the top four in the standings as a result. They have gained points on all of their rivals for the Champions League places they are aiming for. The positive streak, which at least in its beginnings is reminiscent of the outstanding start to the 2023 season with eight BL trebles in a row, is set to continue on Friday evening

The coach Edin Terzic’s charges will then visit Brenz. For the second time in the history of German professional soccer, Heidenheim and Dortmund will meet to kick off matchday 20 in the Bundesliga. After betting on an unexpected 2-2 draw in the first leg would have been the right choice, the best bookmakers are once again predicting that the visitors will be favorites for the second leg on Friday evening. On the three-way market, maximum odds of 1.73 are on offer for BVB’s success.

However, Borussia will be extremely well warned, as the promoted side from the Ostalb are currently in the midst of their strongest phase of the season, have not lost any of their last six league games all year and have already put the fear of God into a number of top-class teams over the course of this season. In the following paragraphs, you can find out which aspects suggest that a prediction on Terzic’s team between Heidenheim and Dortmund will come true and which BVB attacker is most likely to be considered for a goalscorer bet.

Heidenheim – Statistics & current form

While SV Darmstadt 98, one of two promoted teams, are currently bottom of the table and are still struggling to acclimatize to the top flight after playing more than half of their matches, 1. FC Heidenheim, champions of the second division in the previous season, are well on their way to securing their place in the league at an early stage. Thanks to the 23 points they have already collected, they are currently eleven points clear of the relegation places. In tenth place in the table, five points behind in seventh place and even quietly dreaming of Europe, they would have to suffer a severe setback in the coming months to be dragged deep into the relegation mess again.

But there are currently no signs of that happening. Quite the opposite. The Blue-Red-Whites have now not lost in six Bundesliga games. Three wins and three draws in the six matches in question. In the entire millennium, only two debutants in the German top flight – Mainz 05 and RB Leipzig – have managed to avoid defeat over a longer period of time

Heidenheim must not oversleep the start of the game

Those looking for the infamous fly in the ointment will quickly notice that they have only managed three consecutive draws recently. And that was against out-of-form teams such as Wolfsburg, Cologne and Hoffenheim. Perhaps this is precisely the starting point for thinking about the odds on the visitors’ three-pointer in the clash between Heidenheim and Dortmund. Especially because the men from the Ostalb have had to learn the hard way in some cases and have one of the weakest defensive lines in the Beletage with a total of 35 goals conceded. Once you have found a recipe against the newly promoted team, it is definitely possible to cause problems for the defense.

This theory can also be backed up statistically, as no other team has conceded more penalties this season than 1. FCH. On ten occasions, Schmidt’s charges have only known how to help themselves in the penalty area by committing a foul. Against the Black & Yellows, who have already been awarded three penalties in three league games in the new year, this issue could become just as important as their vulnerability in the opening quarter of an hour. Almost a quarter of all goals conceded (eight) came in the first 15 minutes of a match. In conjunction with the qualitative disadvantages and Borussia’s upward trend in form, it would appear to be smarter to make a prediction on the reigning runners-up in the Friday evening match between Heidenheim and Dortmund.

Predicted line-up for Heidenheim:

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

After a far from satisfactory first half of the season, Borussia Dortmund have been able to settle down in the first few weeks of the new year. The reason for this was the three victories that the Black & Yellows were able to secure on the first three match days after the winter break. Although not all that glitters was gold in the victories against Darmstadt, Cologne and Bochum, the bottom line is nine out of a possible nine points and top spot in the annual table. The fact that their immediate rivals also lost ground has significantly improved BVB’s starting position in the battle for a Champions League ticket.

However, what will surely be the most complicated task in 2024 now awaits at the Voith Arena on the Ostalb, where Dortmund will play a competitive match for the first time in the club’s history. In addition to the fact that 1. FCH have won five of their nine home games so far (5-2-2), the visitors will also have to contend with a tight personnel situation.

Edin Terzic will almost certainly have to do without Julian Brandt, Marco Reus and Gregor Kobel. All three are struggling with persistent illnesses and are therefore unlikely to be available. There is also a question mark over the fitness of the ailing Jadon Sancho. Giovanni Reyna will not be involved on Friday evening as he has joined Nottingham Forest on loan at short notice

Does Füllkrug continue his run for BVB?

Niclas Füllkrug, who scored all three goals for BVB in their 3-1 win over VfL Bochum the previous week and thus scored a treble for the first time in a black and yellow shirt, will definitely be involved. With four goals in the 2024 calendar year, the national team striker is currently the most successful attacker in the Bundesliga. As Füllkrug is also a potential penalty taker, the likelihood of the top scorer scoring increases even further

Another point in Borussia’s favor is that they have only lost one of their last twelve away matches in the Bundesliga, have scored at least once in 19 consecutive away games in the German top flight and have a very good record against promoted teams. The Champions League round of 16 finalists have not lost any of their last eight league matches against newcomers. With Edin Terzic on the sidelines, they have even picked up ten out of a possible twelve points from their last four away matches.

Predicted Dortmund line-up:

Heidenheim – Dortmund head-to-head comparison / H2H result

The first leg on matchday three was the first and so far only meeting between these clubs at competitive level. After Julian Brandt and Emre Can had given BVB a 2-0 lead in the first 15 minutes, many spectators at Signal Iduna Park thought it would be a quiet Friday evening. However, things turned out differently. Dinkci and Kleindienst equalized in the second half to make it 2:2. In the end, Dortmund had to live with the one point against a strong promoted team

Heidenheim – Dortmund betting tip

Two teams still unbeaten in the 2024 calendar year open the 20th matchday in the Bundesliga on Friday evening. As was to be expected, lower odds are being offered on an away win for Black & Yellow between Heidenheim and Dortmund. Nevertheless, we are miles away from a one-sided starting position. On the one hand, because 1. FCH have not lost any of their last six Bundesliga matches. On the other hand, because BVB, despite three wins in three matches, are still not necessarily stable and dominant.

Nevertheless, we believe there are good reasons to bet on Dortmund. The home side’s very vulnerable defense, which has already conceded ten penalties this season, plays just as big a role as Schmidt’s team’s weakness in starting matches well. As this is one of Borussia’s core competencies, we wouldn’t be surprised if the understrength Terzic side take an early lead, as they did in the first leg. It’s also quite possible that both teams will score in the first 45 minutes.